How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries


Book Description

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) – the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter—is the indicator preferred by the Basel Committee because of its good performance as an early warning of banking crises. However, for a number of European countries this indicator implausibly suggests that credit should go back to its level at the peak of the boom after the credit cycle turns, resulting in large negative gaps that might delay the activation of macroprudential policies. We explore two different approaches—a multivariate filter based on economic theory and a fundamentals-based panel regression. Each approach has pros and cons, but they both provide a useful complement to the BCG in assessing macro-financial vulnerabilities in Europe.







Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy


Book Description

This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries




The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology


Book Description

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.




The Global Findex Database 2017


Book Description

In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.




Addressing Information Gaps


Book Description

The global financial crisis has identified serious gaps in information. This paper outlines some of the key information gaps and the priorities for filling them. Key areas for attention include the granularity of disclosures on exposures by large and complex financial institutions; disclosures and assessments of complex structured products; revamping of indicators used in financial stability analysis to focus on indicators with greater early warning content; and improving transparency in over-the-counter derivatives markets.




The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook


Book Description

A hands-on guide to the theory and practice of bank credit analysis and ratings In this revised edition, Jonathan Golin and Philippe Delhaise expand on the role of bank credit analysts and the methodology of their practice. Offering investors and practitioners an insider's perspective on how rating agencies assign all-important credit ratings to banks, the book is updated to reflect today's environment of increased oversight and demands for greater transparency. It includes international case studies of bank credit analysis, suggestions and insights for understanding and complying with the Basel Accords, techniques for reviewing asset quality on both quantitative and qualitative bases, explores the restructuring of distressed banks, and much more. Features charts, graphs, and spreadsheet illustrations to further explain topics discussed in the text Includes international case studies from North America, Asia, and Europe that offer readers a global perspective Offers coverage of the Basel Accords on Capital Adequacy and Liquidity and shares the authors' view that a bank could be compliant under those and other regulations without being creditworthy A uniquely practical guide to bank credit analysis as it is currently practiced around the world, The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook, Second Edition is a must-have resource for equity analysts, credit analysts, and bankers, as well as wealth managers and investors.




Dynamic Linear Models with R


Book Description

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.




An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines


Book Description

We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.




Nepal


Book Description

Subdued economic activity has helped strengthen the external position and ease inflation. Growth is expected to rebound to 4.9 percent in FY2024/25, supported by further expansion in hydropower generation and a higher execution rate of public capital expenditure. Inflation is expected to remain within the authorities’ target ceiling of 5.5 percent. Non-performing loans have risen, bank profitability has weakened, and the financial health of savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) has deteriorated.