Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Inflation: the Case of BRICS Countries


Book Description

Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Inflation: The Case of BRICS Countries The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on inflation rates in BRICS countries using annual panel data for 20 years from 1997 to 2017. The study is based on a two-process analysis where the Structural VAR model is used in the first stage to decompose the oil price shocks. In the second stage, Dynamic Panel Model based on Arellano-Bond Estimator is applied to further examine how these oil price shocks affect inflation, controlling for total factor productivity, interest rates and gross domestic product growth. The results suggest that oil price changes do not have significant impact on inflation at low frequency data. However, individual country comparison reveals that oil supply and oil specific demand shocks have significant positive impact on Russia but not in any other of the remaining four countries- Brazil, China, India, and South Africa




Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies


Book Description

We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.




Implications of Oil Prices Shocks for the Major Emerging Economies


Book Description

This study analyses the implications of oil prices shocks for the BRICS economies. We employed a time-varying structural vector autoregressive (TV-SVA) framework in which the sources of time variation are the coefficients and variance-covariance matrix of the innovations. The quarter frequency data for the period of 1987QII - 2017QII is used for the empirical analysis. The key findings suggest that there are substantial differences and asymmetries in the response of these economies to oil shocks. These differences were profound between, and even within, oil exporters and importers. It shows that between major oil exporters i.e. Russia and Brazil the former's economy is rather more intensively influenced by oil prices shocks. Between the two largest net oil importers i.e. India and China, comparatively, the Indian economy seems to be rather more vulnerable to oil prices shocks in terms of their adverse effects on GDP, inflation and balance of trade. The dependence of economies on oil and an increasing level of consumption continue to pose policy challenges for prices and economic stability. The analysis on South Africa also shows negative impacts of oil prices shocks, however, the effects are comparatively more time-variant than other BRICS members. While these asymmetries indicate significant differences in the structure of these economies they also indicate venues of cooperation and stronger trading relationships to overcome the adverse shocks and mutual development.




Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook


Book Description

The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.




The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Stock Return in Emerging Markets


Book Description

This paper studies the relationship between oil price and financial market in the emerging economies. It employs the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) analysis to estimate the impact of the oil price on the stock index's return in the BRICS group. Daily data was obtained from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index and BP for the oil price. The sample covers the period from 09/05/2005 till 30/03/2012.The results suggest that there is a significant interrelationship between the BRICS markets, except for South Africa, and the oil market. Oil prices do affect BRICS markets but to varying degrees. Brazil and Russia are more responsive to oil shocks in a positive way than the other markets in the study, on the other hand, the Indian and Chinese markets exhibit a negative response to oil shocks. As for the South African's market, the response is small and slow.




Oil Price Fluctuations and Their Impact on BRIC Countries


Book Description

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 2, University of Graz (Finanzwirtschaft), course: Internationale Finanzmarkte, language: English, abstract: The last decade was marked by the global financial crisis, the biggest recession since World War II, which led to turmoil on financial markets, bankruptcies of investment banks and slow growth in nearly all developed countries. With only an average annual growth rate of 1.5% since 2010 the biggest developed economies recovered only moderately from the crisis. Back in 2001 Jim O'Neill had already realized it was time to focus on new countries. In his opinion the four largest fast growing emerging economies were Brazil, Russia, China and India. Thus he created the acronym BRIC which symbolizes a power shift from developed countries to developing ones. In 2010, the year after the crisis their annual growth rate was about 8.2% compared to the weak 2.7% of developed countries. This goes along with forecasts that suggested a rise in capital, automotive and oil market leading each of the BRICs to overtake the major developed countries. Among these the most important market seems to be the oil market and more specifically the crude oil market. Crude oil has a share of 34% of the world's primary energy consumption and is likely to remain the same for many more decades. BRIC countries are large oil consumers and since 2011 have surpassed the United States (US) in oil consumption. Their strong representation in the crude oil market justifies a further analysis on each country's status. According to Hamilton (2009) the crude oil price development was strongly correlated to the financial meltdown. Thus, understanding the impact of oil price fluctuations can create a path towards a sustainable future growth The target of this paper is to examine O'Neill's growing theory by investigating the crude oil market for Brazil, Russia, India and China. Furthermore analysing the effect of oil price fluctuat"




The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy


Book Description

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.




Oil Price Shocks and Inflation


Book Description

Despite growing interest in the impact of oil and other energy price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations, until recently this question has not received much attention. This survey not only presents empirical results for the U.S. economy, but expands the analysis to include other major economies. We find that only in the Euro area and in the U.K. energy price shocks are associated with a material increase in core consumer prices. This helps explain the somewhat more persistent response of headline inflation in these countries than in the U.S. or Canada. Inflation is even less sensitive to energy price shocks in Japan. We document that energy price shocks played a more important role in explaining headline inflation in the Euro area in 2021 and 2022 than in the U.S. This does not mean that energy price shocks have de-anchored inflation expectations, however. While suitable data on long-run inflation expectations are scant, neither for the U.S. nor the U.K. is there evidence that energy price shocks have materially changed long-run inflation expectations.




Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of Oil-Exporting Countries


Book Description

Oil price shocks affect macroeconomic performance in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The recent research on the oil-macroeconomy relationship in the oil-importing countries shows that oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on their economic growth; the adverse effects of higher oil prices are larger than the stimulating effects of lower prices. The effects of oil price shocks on economic performance and their transmission mechanism in oil-exporting countries are different than those in oil-importing countries. In this study, we examine the oil-macroeconomy nexus in the context of oil-exporting developing countries. We set up a VAR model with a GARCH-type oil price shocks to estimate and test the asymmetric effects of oil shocks in six major oil exporting members of OPEC for the period 1970-2009. The model includes oil price shocks and economic growth as two major variables of interest as well as the intermediate variables such as investment, exchange rate, and inflation rate. We find that in oil exporting developing countries, lower oil prices would lead to major revenue cuts and stagnation in the economy. However, higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate to a sustained economic growth.




Effects of Structural Oil Shocks on Output, Exchange Rate, and Inflation in the BRICS Countries


Book Description

In this study, we apply a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, combining the global crude oil market with each emerging economy, to investigate the effects of different types of oil shocks on industrial outputs, real exchange rates, and consumer price levels in each of the BRICS countries. The empirical results show that an oil supply shock has significant effects on Russia, while other countries are mainly influenced by an aggregate demand shock. Moreover, an oil-specific demand shock caused by expectation shifts or speculative activities is likely to induce a stagflation risk for China and India. However, these harmful effects are relatively delayed due to oil subsidies or price regulation measures.