Book Description

There is a high level of concern among senior Air Force leaders about projected pilot shortages, which are so severe they have been labeled an "aircrew crisis." The Air Force asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to evaluate whether a Total Force service commitment (TFSC) policy could reduce or eliminate these shortages. Such a policy would replace the current active duty service commitment and reserve service commitment of 10 years with a TFSC longer than 10 years. The new TFSC policy would also permit the level of cross-flow between the Regular Air Force and reserve components that best addresses Total Force shortages. The authors used a modified version of RAND's Total Force Blue Line model to project future pilot numbers under different assumptions about the TFSC policy. The model results show that a TFSC policy could reduce, but not eliminate, shortages if production plans are unalterable; if certain production adjustments are possible, the benefits of longer service commitments become less important. Moreover, the results paint a clear picture that increasing production (and incorporating new pilots into operational units and affording them sufficient flying time to gain experience) is a required way forward in addressing this aircrew crisis