Inevitable Uncertainty


Book Description

Is the worst yet to come, or will there be a darkness that precedes the dawn as everyone awaits the last days? And can it be possible that the last days are the new beginning of what is truly marvelous and worth every struggle, both real and imaginary? This matter of inevitable uncertainty is a lifelong challenge that will not yield to the intentions of the best plans. One must endure its magnitude with boldness and faith that is nurtured in the mind and deposited into the heart, where every beat pounds it into submission to indomitable will, lest despair direct one to an insignifi cant fate. I believe! One must proclaim, and then prophesy to the horizon whether it forebodes malady or casts a sweet allurement. I will! One must proclaim in spite of dissenters who prove to be great fair weather company along for the ride. And one must pray that one will survive through the foolish measures of their own unbridled bravery, while the course through the unknown looms as an undefeatable giant. No time is wasted, for every step forward is progress and every resting place is a recharge, every fall is a chance to rise again. Surely the demons will howl when the moon rises and the day vultures will soar in the midst of the trial, which hardens your resolve, and you shall laugh when your victory shuts their mouths. And those who laugh last, laughs best.




The Uncertainty Mindset


Book Description

Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.




Manufactured Uncertainty


Book Description

In this provocative work, Lorraine Code returns to the idea of "epistemic responsibility," as developed in her influential 1987 book of the same name, to confront the telling new challenges we now face to know the world with some sense of responsibility to other "knowers" and to the sustaining, nonhuman world. Manufactured Uncertainty focuses centrally on the environmental and cultural crises arising from postindustrial, man-made climate change, which have spawned new forms of passionately partisan social media that directly challenge all efforts to know with a sense of collective responsibility. How can we agree to act together, Code asks, even in the face of inevitable uncertainty, given the truly life-threatening stakes of today's social and political challenges? How can we engage responsibly with those who take every argument for an environmentally grounded epistemology as an unacceptable challenge to their assumed freedoms, comforts, and "rights?" Through searching critical dialogue with leading epistemologists, cultural theorists, and feminist scholars, this book poses a timely challenge to all thoughtful knowers who seek to articulate an expanded and deepened sense of epistemic responsibility—to a human society and a natural world embraced, together, in the most inclusive spirit.




Human Judgment and Social Policy


Book Description

With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all.




Stop Playing Safe


Book Description

Tap the power of courage and achieve greater clarity, confidence, and satisfaction in your work and life Tap in to the inspirational motivation of best-selling author, life coach and media personality, Margie Warrell. Stop Playing Safe is a call to action for anyone who has ever felt that their work was not revealing their true potential for personal progression and career development. It will give you the conviction and courage to become bolder in your career, to perform better and enjoy your work more. Margie points out that ‘fear’ seems to be our new state of ‘normal’ as we deal with economic uncertainty, job insecurity and constant change management in the workplace. In times like these, all our instincts tell us to play safe and avoid risk. Yet courage and bold action are the keys to reaping the rewards of exceptional success in your career. Supported by case studies, insights and advice from a range of high-profile Australian and international entrepreneurs, Stop Playing Safe shares tactics you can put into practice to achieve personal fulfilment and professional success. It will help you clarify your career purpose and maximise your work value. It offers solutions for dealing with change management and will encourage you to pursue your career goals with renewed vigour and empowerment. Margie Warrell grew up on a dairy farm in rural Australia and has lived in the US She is the best-selling author of Find Your Courage and CEO of Global Courage Her clients include the United Nations Foundation, NASA, Ernst & Young, Bechtel, Best Buy, Accenture, AOL, Covidien, ADT, United Healthcare, and ExxonMobil You will keep coming back to this book as you move forward in your career, using it as a ready reference to progress through each stage and tackle each new challenge. "Adapting to change an taking chances are critical to your success. This book will help you with both. Get it, read it, enjoy the results." – Jon Gordon, author of The Energy Bus and The Seed. “Stop Playing Safe will help you harness the courage to take the risks that make sense-and give you the success you want." - Randy Gage, Author of Risky Is the New Safe “Practical, powerful, and inspiring. In uncertain times, it's a guidebook you can't afford not to read as it spells out exactly how to handle your challenges and find the confidence to speak up, adapt and get ahead in the new economy. Everyone in your company should read it!" - Suzi Pomerantz, author, Master coach, and CEO of Innovative Leadership International. “Stop Playing Safe is one of those rare books that is at once original, inspirational, and above all, useful.” - Bill Treasurer, President of Giant Leap Consulting and author, Courage Goes to Work. "Stop Playing Safe provides a roadmap to navigate uncertainty and find the courage to create meaningful changes in your workplace, career and life." - Rebecca Heino, Professor of Management, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University “Margie Warrell provides powerful and practical advice for overcoming our innate fear of risk and vulnerability. It bears reading and re-reading for all who strive to become their best selves." - Dr Gordon Livingston, Author of Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart "Margie is a true expert on the science of success. Her new book is both inspiring and practical. It's a powerful manual for creating the life of your dreams.” - Siimon Reynolds, author of Why People Fail




Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk


Book Description

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.




Defence Planning and Uncertainty


Book Description

How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.




Forensic Science Evidence and Expert Witness Testimony


Book Description

Forensic science evidence plays a pivotal role in modern criminal proceedings. Yet such evidence poses intense practical and theoretical challenges. It can be unreliable or misleading and has been associated with miscarriages of justice. In this original and insightful book, a global team of prominent scholars and practitioners explore the contemporary challenges of forensic science evidence and expert witness testimony from a variety of theoretical, practical and jurisdictional perspectives. Chapters encompass the institutional organisation of forensic science, its procedural regulation, evaluation and reform, and brim with comparative insight.




Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases: Research Track


Book Description

The multi-volume set LNAI 14169 until 14175 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2023, which took place in Turin, Italy, in September 2023. The 196 papers were selected from the 829 submissions for the Research Track, and 58 papers were selected from the 239 submissions for the Applied Data Science Track. The volumes are organized in topical sections as follows: Part I: Active Learning; Adversarial Machine Learning; Anomaly Detection; Applications; Bayesian Methods; Causality; Clustering. Part II: ​Computer Vision; Deep Learning; Fairness; Federated Learning; Few-shot learning; Generative Models; Graph Contrastive Learning. Part III: ​Graph Neural Networks; Graphs; Interpretability; Knowledge Graphs; Large-scale Learning. Part IV: ​Natural Language Processing; Neuro/Symbolic Learning; Optimization; Recommender Systems; Reinforcement Learning; Representation Learning. Part V: ​Robustness; Time Series; Transfer and Multitask Learning. Part VI: ​Applied Machine Learning; Computational Social Sciences; Finance; Hardware and Systems; Healthcare & Bioinformatics; Human-Computer Interaction; Recommendation and Information Retrieval. ​Part VII: Sustainability, Climate, and Environment.- Transportation & Urban Planning.- Demo.




Geostatistical Reservoir Modeling


Book Description

A revised edition that provides a full update on the most current methods, tools, and research in petroleum geostatistics.