Inflation Dynamics Reconsidered. Inflation Targeting Europe vs. United States


Book Description

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,3, University of Frankfurt (Main) (Departement of Money and Macroeconomics), language: English, abstract: This paper investigates the inflation dynamics of Germany, Italy, Finland, the whole Europe Area and the United States, based on a General-Method of Moments (GMM) estimation. The New-Keynesian Model and the Real-Business-Cycle Model are essential for the estimation.




Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle


Book Description

The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts




Search Frictions, Real Rigidities and Inflation Dynamics


Book Description

I analyze the effect of search frictions on inflation dynamics, in a New Keynesian model where firms make both pricing and vacancy posting decisions. I find that search frictions create real rigidities in price setting. This mechanism flattens the New Keynesian Phillips curve, relative both to the standard model with a frictionless labor market and a model where pricing and vacancy posting decisions are made by different subsets of firms. This helps the model improve its empirical performance along a number of dimensions. First, inflation becomes more persistent. Second, output responses to monetary shocks become larger and more persistent. Finally, unemployment becomes more volatile. [Resumen de autor]




Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve


Book Description

"The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. They focus on Gal ̕and Gertler's (1999) specification, for both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational-expectations assumption, and a modification to the latter that uses survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behaviour, and (iii) the frequency of price adjustment. Overall, the authors find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the United States, whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Their findings underscore the need for employing identification-robust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations."--Abstract from website.




Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation


Book Description

This book presents a theoretical framework to explain chronic inflation and hyperinflation. The roots of these two phenomenon are a fiscal monetary regime in which money issues finance the public deficit. Chronic inflation is modeled by using both the old and the new Keynesian model, with a different policy rule. Instead of using the Taylor rule, the central bank policy rule states that money is issued to finance the public deficit. The chronic inflation models take into account the fact that indexation mechanisms adjust prices and wages, yielding the inertial component of inflation. The dynamics of these models can be very unstable under parameter changes or shocks that hit the economy. The previous hyperinflation models surveyed in this book attempt to explain hyperinflation as a bubble phenomenon because they assume a constant real deficit financed by money. The mechanics of hyperinflation models in this book explains hyperinflation by a fiscal crisis, characterized by an increasing fiscal deficit. This fiscal crisis yields an intertemporal budget constraint that is not sustainable. The analysis of the pathology of hyperinflation uses the same tools employed to understand the pathologies of public debt and external debt crises. The hyperinflation model allows a taxonomy of hyperinflations, namely bubble, weak and strong, that can be tested with the inflation tax revenue curve.




Unconventional Policy Instruments in the New Keynesian Model


Book Description

This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the ‘divine coincidence’ breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker’s preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations.




Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia


Book Description

In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting.




The Science and Practice of Monetary Policy Today


Book Description

Bridging the theory and practice of monetary policy, this book presents aspects of the New-Keynesian theory of monetary policy and its implications for the practical decision-making of central bankers. It also outlines important lessons for policymakers.