Inflation Dynamics in Asia


Book Description

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.







Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia


Book Description

This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.




Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies


Book Description

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.




Inflation and Deflation in East Asia


Book Description

In light of the deflationary trends following the 2008/2009 financial crisis, as well as the return of inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, this book offers insights into price stability issues in various East Asian countries. Leading scholars from the fields of economics and law as well as central bank practitioners present case studies on Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The contributors address topics such as quantitative monetary easing, the role of global and domestic shocks on inflation dynamics, and other monetary policy issues. In doing so, the book goes into detail about the individual forces and effects of deflation and inflation and compares the Asian experience with that of the Eurozone.




Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific


Book Description

The research papers presented at the conference covered the dynamics of inflation forecasts in the region; the measurement of economic slack; supply chains and inflation spillovers; financial globalisation and the role of exchange rate in monetary policy; global commodity price cycles and their monetary policy implications; and the role of inflation in China's monetary policy rule. This volume is a collection of the speeches, presentations and a background paper from the conference."--Abstract.










Money Supply and Inflation Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific Economies


Book Description

We examine the relationship between money supply growth and inflation in 3 Asian Economies which are India, Malaysia and Japan using a time-frequency approach. The application of a unified multi-scale analysis allows us to provide a continuous assessment of the link between money supply growth and inflation, unlike most of the existing literature studying this relationship. We also employ a bivariate frequency-domain causality test to determine the nature and direction of interdependence between money supply growth and inflation dynamics. Our findings provide a better understanding of their lead-lag linkages and causal relationship in the selected countries of the Asia-Pacific region.




Essays on Inflation Dynamics in Selected Asian Countries


Book Description

This thesis analyses inflation dynamics in eight Asian countries. The second chapter analyses inflation persistence and exchange rate pass through (ERPT). The findings on inflation persistence show that for most countries this declines after the Asian financial crisis. The findings for ERPT are more mixed and vary by country. The role of Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) on inflation persistence and ERPT is also examined. The estimation results suggest it is too early to generalize that ITF exerts a consistently discernible influence on inflation dynamics across this group of Asian ITF countries. The third and fourth chapters focus on the impact that world oil and world food price shocks have on domestic prices. On average, the pass-through of the world oil price is higher than for world food prices. Another finding is that the domestic food supply capacity of a country succeeds in dampening the effect of world food price shocks. The fifth chapter employs disaggregated data on prices to examine inflation dynamics in Indonesia. The main finding is that price behaviour exhibits heterogeneity. Disaggregated prices are more flexible in response to sector specific shocks and are more sluggish in response to macroeconomic shocks. In response to deposit rate shocks, the price puzzle becomes weaker after the full implementation of ITF.