Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies


Book Description

A new approach for introducing unemployment into the New Keynesian framework. The past fifteen years have witnessed the rise of the New Keynesian model as a framework of reference for the analysis of fluctuations and stabilization policies. That framework, which combines the rigor and internal consistency of dynamic general equilibrium models with such typically Keynesian assumptions as monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities, makes possible a meaningful, welfare-based analysis of the effects of monetary policy rules. But the conspicuous absence of unemployment from the standard New Keynesian model has given rise to both criticism and attempts to rectify this anomaly. In this book, Jordi Galí, one of the major contributors to the New Keynesian literature, offers a new approach to introducing unemployment into that framework. Galí's approach involves a reinterpretation of the labor market in the standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting (rather than a modification or extension of the model, as has been proposed by others). The resulting framework preserves the convenience of the representative household paradigm and allows one to determine the equilibrium levels of employment, the labor force, and hence the unemployment rate conditional on the monetary policy in place. Galí develops the basic model, embedding it in a standard New Keynesian framework with staggered price and wage setting; revisits the relationship between economic fluctuations and efficiency through the lens of the new model, developing a measure of the output gap; and analyzes the relation between unemployment and the design of monetary policy.




Inflation Expectations


Book Description

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.




The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation


Book Description

Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization policies can play an important role in shaping the trade-off. Third, nominal wages tend to be endogenously rigid also upward, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation.




Lessons from the Heterodox Stabilization Programs


Book Description

Heterodox stabilization programs are more successful in chronic high inflation countries because only there can the benefits from achieving a rapid initial reduction in inflation outweigh the costs of tampering with price and wage controls. While the heterodox phase is effective in blocking inflation initially, success depends on a long- term commitment to the orthodox part of the program and the readiness to accept the unavoidable costs of disinflation.




Inflation Stabilization and Welfare


Book Description

Abstract: This paper derives loss functions for monetary policy that are grounded in the welfare of private agents, for optimizing models with nominal price rigidities. Inflation stabilization enhances welfare, insofar as variable inflation results in real distortions when prices are not adjusted throughout the economy in a perfectly synchronized fashion. The exact sense in which inflation variability matters for welfare, however, depends upon the details of price-setting behavior. Conditions are described under which optimal policy involves complete stabilization of the price level. This may be optimal even in the presence of 'supply shocks' of several possible sorts, and even in the presence of distortions that imply that the optimal output gap is positive (despite existence of a long-run Phillips curve). At the same time discussed why complete price-level stabilization is not optimal in more complicated (and probably more realistic) settings.




Power, Norms, and Inflation


Book Description

Explanations for inflation had for a long time been ceded to the purview of economists. The acceleration in rates of inflation within advanced economies during the 1960s and 1970s, however, prompted sociologists and political scientists to attempt their own accounts for this phenomenon.There are two major competing explanations of the postwar inflation. One, most commonly held by economists, is that inflation has been produced by governments through a combination of policy errors and cynical manipulation of policy for electoral purposes. The other, often advanced by sociologists and political scientists as an alternative, is that inflation has been an outcome of class conflict. In his study that ranges widely over the literature in the relevant disciplines, Smith examines the strengths and weaknesses of each account, with particular attention to the evidence presented in support of class-conflict explanations. He concludes that, on balance, the policy-error/cynical-manipulation explanation is better supported than its class-conflict rival.The clarity with which Smith presents these rival accounts and the critical rigor of his scrutiny make this a work of interest to advanced students in macroeconomic theory and to policy makers.