Information Shocks, Liquidity Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery


Book Description

In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, announcement surprises have limited power in explaining bond price jumps. Our analysis further shows that preannouncement liquidity shocks, such as changes in the bid-ask spread and market depth, have significant predictive power for jumps. The predictive power is significant even after controlling for information shocks. Finally, we present evidence that post-jump order flow is less informative relative to the case where there is no jump at announcement.







Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

"We identify striking adjustment patterns for price volatility, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads in the U.S. Treasury market when public information arrives. Using newly available high-frequency data, we find a notable lack of trading volume upon a major announcement when prices are most volatile. The bid-ask spread widens dramatically with price volatility and narrows just as dramatically with trading volume. Trading volume surges only after an appreciable lag following the announcement. High levels of price volatility and trading volume then persist, with volume persisting somewhat longer"--Abstract.




Price Discovery in the Round-the-Clock U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

We evaluate the efficacy of price discovery in the round-the-clock U.S. Treasury market. Using a comprehensive intraday database, we explore informational role of trades over the 24-hour day. We find that information asymmetry is generally highest in the preopen period and lowest in the postclose period. Information asymmetry in the overnight period is comparable to that in the regular trading period. However, on days with macroeconomic announcements, information asymmetry peaks shortly after the news release at 8:30. Moreover, information asymmetry is higher in Monday morning and higher immediately before than after the open of U.S. Treasury futures trading. Although volume is low after hours and trading cost is relatively high, overnight trading generates significant price discovery. Results suggest that overnight trading activity is an important part of the Treasury price discovery process.




Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

Changes in the structure of the U.S. Treasury market over recent years may have increased risks to financial stability. Traditional market makers have changed their liquidity provision by increasingly switching from risk warehousing to risk distribution, and a new breed of market maker has emerged with the rise of electronic trading. The “flash rally” of October 15, 2014 provides a clear example of how those risks can materialize. Based on an in-depth analysis of the event—complementing the authorities’ work—we suggest i) providing incentives for liquidity provision, ii) improving market safeguards, and iii) enhancing the regulation of the Treasury market.




Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape. Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature: • An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them • Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks’ influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments • Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints • The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility • Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds • Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing • Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints • Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets. Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.




Macroeconomic News Announcements and Price Discovery


Book Description

This study employs macroeconomic news announcements as proxy for new information arrivals and examines their impact on price discovery of Canadian cross-listed stocks. We compare the price discovery of 38 Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the period 2004-2011. First, we observe that price discovery shifts significantly during macroeconomic news announcement days. Second, the U.S. market becomes more important in terms of price discovery, regardless of the origin of the news. Third, we examine the relation between price discovery and market microstructure variables. After controlling for liquidity shocks, we find that the impact of news announcements still persists. Intraday analyses of price discovery on periods surrounding news releases further support these findings. These results suggest that there is a difference in information-processing capability of the two markets, with the U.S. market being better at processing information than the Canadian market during macro-economic news announcements. Our results are consistent with the literature which shows that cross-listing in the U.S. is positively associated with an improvement in the stock price information environment.




Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics


Book Description

This book discusses market microstructure environment within the context of the global financial crisis. In the first part, the market microstructure theory is recalled and the main microstructure models and hypotheses are discussed. The second part focuses on the main effects of the financial downturn through an examination of market microstructure dynamics. In particular, the effects of market imperfections and the limitations associated with microstructure models are discussed. Finally, the new regulations and recent developments for financial markets that aim to improve the market microstructure are discussed. Well-known experts on the subject contribute to the chapters in the book. A must-read for academic researchers, students and quantitative practitioners.




The Microstructure of Financial Markets


Book Description

The analysis of the microstructure of financial markets has been one of the most important areas of research in finance and has allowed scholars and practitioners alike to have a much more sophisticated understanding of the dynamics of price formation in financial markets. Frank de Jong and Barbara Rindi provide an integrated graduate level textbook treatment of the theory and empirics of the subject, starting with a detailed description of the trading systems on stock exchanges and other markets and then turning to economic theory and asset pricing models. Special attention is paid to models explaining transaction costs, with a treatment of the measurement of these costs and the implications for the return on investment. The final chapters review recent developments in the academic literature. End-of-chapter exercises and downloadable data from the book's companion website provide opportunities to revise and apply models developed in the text.