Information Shocks, Liquidity Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery


Book Description

In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, announcement surprises have limited power in explaining bond price jumps. Our analysis further shows that preannouncement liquidity shocks, such as changes in the bid-ask spread and market depth, have significant predictive power for jumps. The predictive power is significant even after controlling for information shocks. Finally, we present evidence that post-jump order flow is less informative relative to the case where there is no jump at announcement.







Liquidity, Markets and Trading in Action


Book Description

This open access book addresses four standard business school subjects: microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance and information systems as they relate to trading, liquidity, and market structure. It provides a detailed examination of the impact of trading costs and other impediments of trading that the authors call rictions It also presents an interactive simulation model of equity market trading, TraderEx, that enables students to implement trading decisions in different market scenarios and structures. Addressing these topics shines a bright light on how a real-world financial market operates, and the simulation provides students with an experiential learning opportunity that is informative and fun. Each of the chapters is designed so that it can be used as a stand-alone module in an existing economics, finance, or information science course. Instructor resources such as discussion questions, Powerpoint slides and TraderEx exercises are available online.




Price and Liquidity Discovery, Jumps and Co-jumps Using High Frequency Data from the Foreign Exchange Markets


Book Description

The thesis provides a novel contribution to the literature of microstructural theory and discovery models. The main contributions are twofolds. First, we move from price to liquidity discovery and explicitly study the dynamic behavior of a direct measure of liquidity observed from the foreign exchange markets. We extend the framework presented by Hasbrouck (1991) and Dufour and Engle (2000) by allowing the coefficients of both liquidity and trade activity to be time dependent. We find that liquidity time is characterized by a strong stochastic component and that liquidity shocks tend to have temporary effects when transactional time is low or equivalently when trading volatility is high. We then analyze the contribution of liquidity to systemic risk and contagion and, in particular, assess the price impact of liquidity shocks. We extend the approach in Dumitru and Urga (2012) and present a co-jump testing procedure, robust to microstructural noise and spurious detection, and based on a number of combinations of univariate tests for jumps. The proposed test allows us to distinguish between transitory-permanent and endogenous-exogenous co-jumps and determine a causality effect between price and liquidity. In the empirical application, we find evidence of contemporaneous and permanent co-jumps but little signs of exogenous co-jumps between the price and the available liquidity of EUR/USD FX spot during the week from May 3 to May 7, 2010.




Intraday Liquidity Dynamics and News Releases Around Price Jumps


Book Description

We study the dynamics of liquidity around jumps by identifying their exact intraday timing and retrieve all macroeconomic and firm-specific news for the 30 constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. We match around a third of the jumps with macroeconomic news announcements, while five per cent of the jumps are associated with firm-specific news. Jumps are found to coincide with a significant increase in trading costs and demand for immediacy, amplified by the release of news. Liquidity supply remains nevertheless high and there is rather strong evidence of resilience. Liquidity shocks in the effective spread and the number of trades are the key drivers behind the occurrence of a jump. Compared with macroeconomic news, the arrival of firm-specific news increases the probability of a jump twice as much. Finally, order imbalance appears to be the most informative liquidity variable with respect to price discovery, especially after the arrival of news.




A Structural Analysis of Price Discovery Measures


Book Description

We analyze the structural determinants of two widely used measures of price discovery between multiple markets that trade closely-related securities. Using a structural cointegration model, we show that both the information share (IS) and component share (CS) measures account for the relative avoidance of noise trading and liquidity shocks, but that only the IS can provide information on the relative informativeness of individual markets. In particular, the IS of one market is higher if it incorporates more new information and/or impounds less liquidity shocks. Use of the CS in conjunction with the IS can help sort out the confounding effects of the two types of shocks. Furthermore, we find that the IS only accounts for the immediate (one-period) responses of market prices to the news innovation which implies that the IS estimates based on high sampling frequencies may be distorted by transitory frictions and may miss important price discovery dynamics.




Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape. Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature: • An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them • Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks’ influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments • Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints • The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility • Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds • Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing • Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints • Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets. Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.




Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics


Book Description

This book discusses market microstructure environment within the context of the global financial crisis. In the first part, the market microstructure theory is recalled and the main microstructure models and hypotheses are discussed. The second part focuses on the main effects of the financial downturn through an examination of market microstructure dynamics. In particular, the effects of market imperfections and the limitations associated with microstructure models are discussed. Finally, the new regulations and recent developments for financial markets that aim to improve the market microstructure are discussed. Well-known experts on the subject contribute to the chapters in the book. A must-read for academic researchers, students and quantitative practitioners.




Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)


Book Description

This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.