International Financial Crisis: 2007 - 2010 TIPPING POINTS


Book Description

BREAKING NEWS: Banks Fined $1.9 Billion by Regulators for Rigging Lending Rates (and 30 more being investigated.)UBS: Switzerland's biggest bank, and Barclays Bank were found guilty and ordered to pay $1.9 billion to U.S., U.K. and Swiss regulators for trying to rig global interest rates. –Bloomberg News, December 21, 2012. Unethical behavior by the world's leading banking institutions contributed to the $10 trillion global financial meltdown. But there is so much more to this historic story… The International Financial Crisis: 2007–2010: TIPPING POINTS A ground-breaking book by Dr Philip Gordon, Ph.D detailing the origins, impacts and complexity of the International Financial Crisis. Dr Gordon provides a unique perspective on the dynamics of this worldwide “economic epidemic” and an innovative Tipping Point Theory methodology for analyzing (and predicting) global events, that are in many ways, influenced by media. Dr Philip Gordon, Ph.D was awarded his doctorate (with honors) from the Centre d'Etudes Diplomatiques et Strategigues (CEDS) - Paris, France and MS while on a full-fellowship from Johns Hopkins University - Baltimore, Maryland. Dr. Gordon has published many books and articles on International Theory and Relations (Blue Matrix Publications) and currently lives in Burgundy, France with his wife and two sons. Review Comments:"The genius of the formulation of Tipping Point Theory is that it takes explicit account of the role of social media and the internet at facilitating bifurcations and promoting dynamical instability. In effect, we have trimmed a few feet of tail off the kite. As a reader, I was informed and educated as to the factors which conspire to influence stability / instability in complex social systems. …the book does a good job of making sense of past bifurcations and dynamical instabilities, namely political instability, our perception of global climate change, and international economic crises…My compliments on a truly insightful Media Tipping Points." -Prof. Dr.(med.) Peter S. Geissler, A.B., B.S., M.S., M.Phil., Ph.D. (Yale)M.A., M.Eng., M.S., Ph.D., M.S., M.D., M.Phil.(Cantab) "The application of the tipping point theory qualitative ratio analysis to media and global events, particularly the financial crisis, is a fascinating one." -Dr. Serge Besanger, PhD Expert, International Monetary Fund“…very interesting application (of the Tipping Point Theory)…potential opportunity for predicting other global events, i.e.: Egyptian crisis and perhaps, even terrorism activities.”-Dr. Adam AJLANI, PhDProfessor, Sciences Politic and Political Consultant, France TV1“…a mass undertaking (very motivated) of how (we) as a society can become aware of future global events. Excellent!”-Dr. Derek EL ZEIN, PhDProfessor, Avocat, Expert: Communications“…very innovative approach to modeling three very complex studies for comparison. Well-suited for similar types of analysis.”-Dr. Emmanuel CAULIER, PhDProfessor and Expert: International Political Relations, Avocat“A truly fascinating book that (teaches) a whole new way of thinking about major events and how the media can influence them. - Being a political junkie I was heavily into the media coverage of the global financial melt-down both via TV and the blogosphere…I now find myself looking for the tipping points and stickiness factors as other key events unfold. Usually, I have trouble reading, theoretical books but this one was an easy read and if you want supporting data then the references are there. This could become a solid reference for those in the media who truly want to understand what they are reporting. Highly recommended and I look forward to Dr. Gordon's ongoing analysis of (future) events.”-Dr. Ralph Moorhouse, Ph.D. Political junkie, Expert: natural polymers for industries




DATA MINING: Predicting Tipping Points


Book Description

Tipping Points as evidenced in global events are, in many ways, influenced by media. DATA MINING for predicting and analyzing world events. This just released, ground-breaking book: DATA MINING: PREDICTING TIPPING POINTS by Dr Philip Gordon, Ph.D, details three case studies which were selected on the basis of common Tipping Point Attributes: Each involved media contagiousness and stickiness during their development and, each arrived at a "dramatic moment in time," which could only be characterized by the phenomenon of Tipping Points. Three recent case studies explore the leading edge technologies of DATA MINING and the theory of TIPPING POINTS: The first case study, the 2008 Presidential Campaign of Barack Obama was chosen to examine a narrower scope and timeframe for the application of the analysis. In contrast to the second case study, the International Financial Crisis of 2007-2010, which involves a broader data study period to identify trends and more complex issues. The third study, Climate Change was included as consideration because the data mining research and analysis revealed critical relationships between Media Impact and Global Events. As the issue of Climate Change is still evolving, Dr Gordon provides a Data Mining and Tipping Point Theory methodology for analyzing and predicting our planets' most pressing Global Tipping Points. Review Comments: "The genius of the formulation of DATA MINING: PREDICTING TIPPING POINTS is that it takes explicit account of the role of social media and the internet at facilitating bifurcations and promoting dynamical instability. In effect, we have trimmed a few feet of tail off the kite. As a reader, I was informed and educated as to the factors which conspire to influence stability / instability in complex social systems. ...the book does a good job of making sense of past bifurcations and dynamical instabilities, namely political instability, our perception of global climate change, and international economic crises...my compliments on a truly insightful Media Tipping Points." -Prof. Dr. (med.) Peter S. Geissler, A.B., B.S., M.S., M.Phil., Ph.D. (Yale) M.A., M.Eng., M.S., Ph.D., M.S., M.D., M.Phil.(Cantab) "A truly fascinating book that (teaches) a whole new way of thinking about major events and how the media can influence them. - Being a political junkie I was heavily into the media coverage of the 2008 Obama election and the global financial meltdown both via TV and the blogosphere. I now find myself looking for the tipping points and stickiness factors as other key events unfold. Usually, I have trouble reading theoretical books but this one was an easy read and if you want supporting data then the references are there. This could become a solid reference for those in the media who truly want to understand what they are reporting. Highly recommended and I look forward to Dr. Gordon's ongoing analysis of (future) events." -Dr. Ralph Moorhouse, Ph.D. Political junkie, Expert: natural polymers for industries "The application of Data Mining and Tipping Point Theory to media and global events, particularly the financial crisis and climate change, is a fascinating one." -Dr. Serge Besanger, PhD Expert, International Monetary Fund ..".very interesting application (of the Tipping Point Theory)...potential opportunity for predicting other global events, i.e.: Egyptian crisis and perhaps, even terrorism activities." -Dr. Adam AJLANI, PhD Professor, Sciences Politic and Political Consultant, France TV1




The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report


Book Description

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.




Global Events: Tipping Points


Book Description

Tipping Points as evidenced in global events are, in many ways, influenced by media. This just released, ground-breaking book GLOBAL EVENTS: TIPPING POINTS by Dr Philip Gordon, Ph.D, details three case studies which were selected on the basis of common Tipping Point Attributes. Each involved media contagiousness and stickiness during their development and each arrived at a "dramatic moment in time," which could be characterized by the phenomenon of Tipping Points. Recent GLOBAL EVENTS: TIPPING POINTS Case Studies: The 2008 Presidential Campaign of Barack Obama was chosen to examine a narrower scope and timeframe for the application of the analysis. The International Financial Crisis of 2007-2010, involves a broader data study period to identify trends and more complex issues. And the Climate Change study is included for consideration as the research and analysis revealed critical relationships between media impact and global events. As the issue of Climate Change is still evolving, Dr Gordon provides a Global Events: Tipping Point Theory methodology for analyzing and predicting our planets' most pressing global issue. Dr Philip Gordon, Ph.D was awarded his doctorate (with high honors) from the Centre d'Etudes Diplomatiques et Strategiques (CEDS) Paris, France and graduated with his masters while on a full fellowship from Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland. He currently lives in Burgundy, France with his wife and two sons. Review Comments: "The genius of the formulation of GLOBAL EVENTS: TIPPING POINTS is that it takes explicit account of the role of social media and the internet at facilitating bifurcations and promoting dynamical instability. In effect, we have trimmed a few feet of tail off the kite. As a reader, I was informed and educated as to the factors which conspire to influence stability / instability in complex social systems. ...the book does a good job of making sense of past bifurcations and dynamical instabilities, namely political instability, our perception of global climate change, and international economic crises ... my compliments on a truly insightful Global Events: Tipping Points." - Prof. Dr. (med.) Peter S. Geissler, A.B., B.S., M.S., M.Phil., Ph.D. (Yale) M.A., M.Eng., M.S., Ph.D., M.S., M.D., M.Phil.(Cantab) "The application of the tipping point theory to media and global events, particularly, Global Events: Tipping Points...the financial crisis and climate change), is a fascinating one." - Dr. Serge Besanger, PhD Expert, International Monetary Fund ..".very interesting application (of the Tipping Point Theory)...potential opportunity for predicting other global events, i.e.: Egyptian crisis and perhaps, even terrorism activities." - Dr. Adam AJLANI, PhD Professor, Sciences Politic and Political Consultant, France TV1 ..".a mass undertaking (very motivated) of how (we) as a society can become aware of future global events, particularly Climate Change. Excellent!" - Dr. Derek EL ZEIN, PhD Professor, Avocat, Expert: Communications "A truly fascinating book that (teaches) a whole new way of thinking about major events and how the media can influence them. Being a political junkie I was heavily into the media coverage of the 2008 Obama election and the global financial meltdown both via TV and the blogosphere. I now find myself looking for the tipping points and stickiness factors as other key events unfold. Usually, I have trouble reading theoretical books but this one was an easy read and if you want supporting data then the references are there. This could become a solid reference for those in the media who truly want to understand what they are reporting. Highly recommended and I look forward to Dr. Gordon's ongoing analysis of (future) events." - Dr. Ralph Moorhouse, PhD Political junkie, Expert: natural polymers for industries




Social Sustainability, Past and Future


Book Description

A novel, integrated approach to understanding long-term human history, viewing it as the long-term evolution of human information-processing. This title is also available as Open Access.




Financial Markets and Financial Crises


Book Description

Warnings of the threat of an impending financial crisis are not new, but do we really know what constitutes an actual episode of crisis and how, once begun, it can be prevented from escalating into a full-blown economic collapse? Using both historical and contemporary episodes of breakdowns in financial trade, contributors to this volume draw insights from theory and empirical data, from the experience of closed and open economies worldwide, and from detailed case studies. They explore the susceptibility of American corporations to economic downturns; the origins of banking panics; and the behavior of financial markets during periods of crisis. Sever papers specifically address the current thrift crisis—including a detailed analysis of the over 500 FSLIC-insured thrifts in the southeast—and seriously challenge the value of recent measures aimed at preventing future collapse in that industry. Government economists and policy makers, scholars of industry and banking, and many in the business community will find these timely papers an invaluable reference.




Global Waves of Debt


Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.




The Regulatory Responses to the Global Financial Crisis


Book Description

We identify current challenges for creating stable, yet efficient financial systems using lessons from recent and past crises. Reforms need to start from three tenets: adopting a system-wide perspective explicitly aimed at addressing market failures; understanding and incorporating into regulations agents’ incentives so as to align them better with societies’ goals; and acknowledging that risks of crises will always remain, in part due to (unknown) unknowns – be they tipping points, fault lines, or spillovers. Corresponding to these three tenets, specific areas for further reforms are identified. Policy makers need to resist, however, fine-tuning regulations: a “do not harm” approach is often preferable. And as risks will remain, crisis management needs to be made an integral part of system design, not relegated to improvisation after the fact.




CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector


Book Description

This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.




Worst-Case Economics


Book Description

Worst-case scenarios are all too real, and all too common. The financial crisis of 2008 was not the first or the last to destroy jobs, homeownership and the savings of millions of people. Hurricanes clobber communities from New York to Bangladesh. How bad will the next catastrophe be, and how soon will it happen? Climate and financial crises are serious events, requiring vigorous responses. Yet public policy is trapped in an obsolete framework, with a simplistic focus on average or likely outcomes rather than dangerous extremes. What would it take to create better analyses of extreme events in climate and finance, and an appropriate policy framework for worst-case risks? ‘Worst-Case Economics: Extreme Events in Climate and Finance’ offers accessible and surprising answers to these crucial questions.