Book Description
To make its case, the paper starts with a theoretical and empirical review of the drivers of trade growth globally, highlighting the role played by regional trade agreements. Because of econometric and methodological errors, earlier studies purportedly showing that previous regional integration efforts on the continent were ineffective are wrong: Recent research points to these agreements boosting intra-African exports by 27 to 32 percent on average. Moreover, contrary to received wisdom, there is nothing out-of-the-ordinary in the existing levels of intra-regional trade; indeed, by some metrics, parts of Africa display a stronger degree of trade integration than comparable regions elsewhere in the world. Finally, the paper provides a recalculation of the intensity of intra-African trade, taking into account structural economic differences and the prevalence of informal cross-border trade, to arrive at a set of new estimates. The paper ends by arguing that, as AfCFTA implementation begins, it is time to change the narrative and to start to "talk up" intra-African trade
