Investment under Uncertainty


Book Description

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.




Investment under Uncertainty, Coalition Spillovers and Market Evolution in a Game Theoretic Perspective


Book Description

Two crucial aspects of economic reality are uncertainty and dynamics. In this book, new models and techniques are developed to analyse economic dynamics in an uncertain environment. In the first part, investment decisions of firms are analysed in a framework where imperfect information regarding the investment's profitability is obtained randomly over time. In the second part, a new class of cooperative games, spillover games, is developed and applied to a particular investment problem under uncertainty: mergers. In the third part, the effect of bounded rationality on market evolution is analysed for oligopolistic competition and incomplete financial markets.




Capital Budgeting Under Conditions of Uncertainty


Book Description

The business environment, particularly after the continuing oil crises of the seventies, can be characterized as evolving rapidly in complex and often unpre dictable ways. Such things as high interest and inflation rates, fluctuating ex change rates, volatile commodity markets, and increasing political turmoil have led to a situation in which explicit consideration of environmental dynamics is becoming much more important for successful business planning than was true in the past. Companies are finding that it is no longer possible to conduct "busi ness as usual" under these changing circumstances. Rather, decision makers are having to be more cognizant of the many sources of uncertainty that could have serious impacts on the continued prosperity of the firm, as well as of actions that can be taken so that the company can thrive in spite of these greater uncertainties. Businesses have responded to these challenges by giving more thorough con sideration to strategic issues. Whereas in the past the steady progression of mar kets and technology was taken for granted, the uncertainties associated with increased worldwide competition, as well as with other exogenous factors, have vii viii INTRODUCTION forced companies to think more about flexibility. This involves not only how best to exploit profitable current options, but also how to position themselves at present to be able to respond appropriately to threats and opportunities as they arise in the future. Unfortunately, in this redirection of outlook, the fmance profession has not kept pace.




Real Options and Investment Under Uncertainty


Book Description

The study of investment under uncertainty was stagnant for several decades until developments in real options revitalized the field. The topics covered in this book include the reasons behind the under-investment programme.










Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment


Book Description

Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.




Risk, Uncertainty and Profit


Book Description

A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.




Competitive Strategy


Book Description

A new paradigm for balancing flexibility and commitment in management strategy through the amalgamation of real options and game theory. Corporate managers who face both strategic uncertainty and market uncertainty confront a classic trade-off between commitment and flexibility. They can stake a claim by making a large capital investment today, influencing their rivals' behavior, or they can take a “wait and see” approach to avoid adverse market consequences tomorrow. In Competitive Strategy, Benoît Chevalier-Roignant and Lenos Trigeorgis describe an emerging paradigm that can quantify and balance commitment and flexibility, “option games,” by which the decision-making approaches of real options and game theory can be combined. The authors first discuss prerequisite concepts and tools from basic game theory, industrial organization, and real options analysis, and then present the new approach in discrete time and later in continuous time. Their presentation of continuous-time option games is the first systematic coverage of the topic and fills a significant gap in the existing literature. Competitive Strategy provides a rigorous yet pragmatic and intuitive approach to strategy formulation. It synthesizes research in the areas of strategy, economics, and finance in a way that is accessible to readers not necessarily expert in the various fields involved.




Stochastic Processes and Applications to Mathematical Finance


Book Description

This volume contains the contributions to a conference that is among the most important meetings in financial mathematics. Serving as a bridge between probabilists in Japan (called the Ito School and known for its highly sophisticated mathematics) and mathematical finance and financial engineering, the conference elicits the very highest quality papers in the field of financial mathematics.