Investment-specific News Dominates TFP News in Driving U.S. Business Cycles


Book Description

When both Investment-Specific Technology (IST) news and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) news shocks compete, the former substantially dominate the latter in driving post-WWII US business cycles. At the two-year horizon, IST news shocks account for 58 percent of the forecast error variance in output, 56 percent of the variation in hours, 51 percent of investment, and 65 percent of consumption variation. By contrast, TFP news shocks account for less than 10 percent of the variation in output, hours, investment, and consumption. TFP news also fails to produce comovement and statistically signi cant e ects on macroeconomic variables despite using the most recent vintage of TFP data from Fernald (2014). Our ndings suggest shifting focus from TFP to IST news when studying news-driven business cycles.













Hysteresis and Business Cycles


Book Description

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.







Capitalism without Capital


Book Description

Early in the twenty-first century, a quiet revolution occurred. For the first time, the major developed economies began to invest more in intangible assets, like design, branding, and software, than in tangible assets, like machinery, buildings, and computers. For all sorts of businesses, the ability to deploy assets that one can neither see nor touch is increasingly the main source of long-term success. But this is not just a familiar story of the so-called new economy. Capitalism without Capital shows that the growing importance of intangible assets has also played a role in some of the larger economic changes of the past decade, including the growth in economic inequality and the stagnation of productivity. Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake explore the unusual economic characteristics of intangible investment and discuss how an economy rich in intangibles is fundamentally different from one based on tangibles. Capitalism without Capital concludes by outlining how managers, investors, and policymakers can exploit the characteristics of an intangible age to grow their businesses, portfolios, and economies.




NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010


Book Description

Leading American and European economists discuss monetary and fiscal policy from a global macroeconomic perspective and analyze the implications of European integration; cutting-edge research presented in a companion volume to the NBER Macroeconomics Annual.




China's Growing Role in World Trade


Book Description

In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.