Iron Troikas: The New Threat from the East


Book Description

In the aftermath of September 11, 2001, American security analysts preoccupied with global terrorism have ignored Russia as a security threat, but this is a mistake for two reasons. First, violence in the Caucasus, a demographic and health crisis, economic uncertainty, income inequality and a return to autocracy suggest a problematic future for Russia. Though deemed implausible, an imploded Russia would have massive security implications for the international community. But second, there is an existential threat posed by Russia which Janusz Bugajski has described in his book, "Cold Peace: Russia's New Imperialism." It involves Moscow's campaign to reassert its influence over the security policies of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The purpose of this monograph is to identify the -- actors and circumstances -- characterized as Iron Troikas which the Kremlin is employing to achieve these goals. The focus is on four U.S. allies in the East Baltic Sea Region (EBSR): the Baltic countries and Poland. Toward this end, the monograph will analyze three groups. The siloviki, the "men of power" who represent the first component of Iron Troikas. Like President Vladimir Putin, they hope to create a strong state that will project Moscow's security interests in areas formerly dominated by the Soviet Union by exploiting Russia's massive energy wealth. The economic warlords, Mafia, and rogue military personnel who have exploited the collapse of the USSR and the drive toward privatization. Even if they are not working under the direction of the siloviki, they have advanced the Kremlin's goals in the EBSR. And the Old Nomenklatura and New Oligarchs in the EBSR countries, who provide a network of "local" actors who aid and abet -- primarily in pursuit of economic and political advantage and not subversive goals -- Russian interests seeking to penetrate their societies.




Understanding Cyber Conflict


Book Description

Written by leading scholars, the fourteen case studies in this volume will help policymakers, scholars, and students make sense of contemporary cyber conflict through historical analogies to past military-technological problems.







Publications Combined: Russia's Regular And Special Forces In The Regional And Global War On Terror


Book Description

Over 2,400 total pages ... Russian outrage following the September 2004 hostage disaster at North Ossetia’s Beslan Middle School No.1 was reflected in many ways throughout the country. The 52-hour debacle resulted in the death of some 344 civilians, including more than 170 children, in addition to unprecedented losses of elite Russian security forces and the dispatch of most Chechen/allied hostage-takers themselves. It quickly became clear, as well, that Russian authorities had been less than candid about the number of hostages held and the extent to which they were prepared to deal with the situation. Amid grief, calls for retaliation, and demands for reform, one of the more telling reactions in terms of hardening public perspectives appeared in a national poll taken several days after the event. Some 54% of citizens polled specifically judged the Russian security forces and the police to be corrupt and thus complicit in the failure to deal adequately with terrorism, while 44% thought that no lessons for the future would be learned from the tragedy. This pessimism was the consequence not just of the Beslan terrorism, but the accumulation of years of often spectacular failures by Russian special operations forces (SOF, in the apt US military acronym). A series of Russian SOF counterterrorism mishaps, misjudgments, and failures in the 1990s and continuing to the present have made the Kremlin’s special operations establishment in 2005 appear much like Russia’s old Mir space station—wired together, unpredictable, and subject to sudden, startling failures. But Russia continued to maintain and expand a large, variegated special operations establishment which had borne the brunt of combat actions in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and other trouble spots, and was expected to serve as the nation’s principal shield against terrorism in all its forms. Known since Soviet days for tough personnel, personal bravery, demanding training, and a certain rough or brutal competence that not infrequently violated international human rights norms, it was supposed that Russian special operations forces—steeped in their world of “threats to the state” and associated with once-dreaded military and national intelligence services—could make valuable contributions to countering terrorism. The now widely perceived link between “corrupt” special forces on the one hand, and counterterrorism failures on the other, reflected the further erosion of Russia’s national security infrastructure in the eyes of both Russian citizens and international observers. There have been other, more ambiguous, but equally unsettling dimensions of Russian SOF activity as well, that have strong internal and external political aspects. These constitute the continuing assertions from Russian media, the judicial system, and other Federal agencies and officials that past and current members of the SOF establishment have organized to pursue interests other than those publicly declared by the state or allowed under law. This includes especially the alleged intent to punish by assassination those individuals and groups that they believe have betrayed Russia. The murky nature of these alleged activities has formed a backdrop to other problems in the special units.




The G8 System and the G20


Book Description

The Group of Eight has become a central actor in global governance with a steadily expanding role and agenda. The leaders' summits remain at the apex of the G8 system, but the leaders' work is complemented by intensifying and expanding networks of ministerial fora as well as various task forces and expert groups. Some of these entities, initially launched by the leaders, have taken on a life of their own with an agenda that diverges from the main concerns of the summits. Following on from Hajnal's acclaimed book The G7/G8 System, this volume discusses the origins, characteristics, evolution, role and agenda of the G7 and G8 system, including a systematic survey of its components. It introduces the major debates about the G7 and G8, looks at proposals to reform the G8-G20 and provides a detailed study of the complex, elusive and changing patterns of documentation of the broader G8-G20 system, including electronic information.




The G8 System and the G20


Book Description

The Group of Eight has become a central actor in global governance with a steadily expanding role and agenda. The leaders' summits remain at the apex of the G8 system, but the leaders' work is complemented by intensifying and expanding networks of ministerial fora as well as various task forces and expert groups. Some of these entities, initially launched by the leaders, have taken on a life of their own with an agenda that diverges from the main concerns of the summits. Following on from Hajnal's acclaimed book The G7/G8 System, this volume discusses the origins, characteristics, evolution, role and agenda of the G7 and G8 system, including a systematic survey of its components. It introduces the major debates about the G7 and G8, looks at proposals to reform the G8-G20 and provides a detailed study of the complex, elusive and changing patterns of documentation of the broader G8-G20 system, including electronic information.




Medvedev's Plan


Book Description

The author addresses the question of how to give Russia a voice but not a veto in a new European security system and provides some provocative recommendations. Most specifically, he proposes that the time has come to provide Russia with a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) and agrees that those who argue against it remain mired in a Cold War mindset that is out of sync with today's strategic realities. Ultimately, a campaign to include Russia in NATO may fail but at the very least, the endeavor deserves serious consideration. He also provides compelling reasons why U.S. defense analysts must consider several future outcomes for Russia. In addition to being the only state that is capable of devastating the United States in a nuclear exchange, most of the world's population and resources exist on the borders of its massive territory. Its future then, will shape the global strategic environment for decades to come.







The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations


Book Description

The ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan represents a solid test of their reset in relations. The author provides the historical background to the Afghanistan Question and assesses current events in the Afghan war with three objectives in mind: 1) to determine whether Russian-American cooperation in Afghanistan has been successful; 2) to identify and evaluate the successes and failures of the counterinsurgency strategy as the transition from U.S. to Afghanistan authority gains traction in the 2011-14 time frame; and 3) to provide conclusions and recommendations bearing on developments in Afghanistan.




The Guns of August 2008


Book Description

In the summer of 2008, a conflict that appeared to have begun in the breakaway Georgian territory of South Ossetia rapidly escalated to become the most significant crisis in European security in a decade. The implications of the Russian-Georgian war will be understood differently depending on one's narrative of what transpired and perspective on the broader context. This book is designed to present the facts about the events of August 2008 along with comprehensive coverage of the background to those events. It brings together a wealth of expertise on the South Caucasus and Russian foreign policy, with contributions by Russian, Georgian, European, and American experts on the region.