Leadership Decapitation


Book Description

One of the central pillars of US counterterrorism policy is that capturing or killing a terrorist group's leader is effective. Yet this pillar rests more on a foundation of faith than facts. In Leadership Decapitation, Jenna Jordan examines over a thousand instances of leadership targeting—involving groups such as Hamas, al Qaeda, Shining Path, and ISIS—to identify the successes, failures, and unintended consequences of this strategy. As Jordan demonstrates, group infrastructure, ideology, and popular support all play a role in determining how and why leadership decapitation succeeds or fails. Taking heed of these conditions is essential to an effective counterterrorism policy going forward.




Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction


Book Description

Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction adapts Clausewitz's framework to highlight the dynamic relationship between the main elements of strategy: purpose, method, and means. Drawing on historical examples, Antulio J. Echevarria discusses the major types of military strategy and how emerging technologies are affecting them. This second edition has been updated to include an expanded chapter on manipulation through cyberwarfare and new further reading.




Leadership Decapitation


Book Description

What is the effect of leadership decapitation—the targeted killing or capture of a leader—on the violence levels of terrorist groups? Strong evidence has yet to emerge, as existing literature examines its effect on group degradation, measured as the duration of group existence post-decapitation. However, this outcome variable does not allow us to fully explore the question. Rather than ending the group or not, terrorist groups may utilize higher levels of violence post-decapitation. Instead of simply being ineffective, leadership decapitation may in fact be counter-productive. Building on a principal-agent model as a theoretical lens, I explore the full effects of leadership decapitation. Without the leader’s more strategic perspective and assertion of operational control, group operative’s more violent preferences are often realized. Yet, without the organization and resources provided by a leader, these mechanistic groups are less efficient in their attacks post-decapitation. Consistent with this theory, examining 42,000 attacks from 133 terrorist groups over 46 years, leadership decapitation has the countervailing effect of a greater number of attacks post-decapitation, but lower levels of fatalities per attack.




How Terrorism Ends


Book Description

Annotation This work answers questions concerning the length of time that terrorist campaigns last and when targeting leadership finishes a group. It examines a wide range of historical examples to identify the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out.




Targeting Top Terrorists


Book Description

When President Barack Obama announced the assassination of Osama bin Laden, many Americans hoped the killing of al-Qaida’s leader would sound the death knell for the organization. Since 9/11, killing and capturing terrorist leaders has been a central element in U.S. counterterrorism strategy. This practice, known as leadership decapitation, is based on the logic that removing key figures will disrupt the organization and contribute to its ultimate failure. Yet many scholars have argued that targeted killings are ineffective or counterproductive, questioning whether taking out a terror network’s leaders causes more problems than it solves. In Targeting Top Terrorists, Bryan C. Price offers a rich, data-driven examination of leadership decapitation tactics, providing theoretical and empirical explanations of the conditions under which they can be successful. Analyzing hundreds of cases of leadership turnover from over two hundred terrorist groups, Price demonstrates that although the tactic may result in short-term negative side effects, the loss of top leaders significantly reduces terror groups’ life spans. He explains vital questions such as: What factors make some terrorist groups more vulnerable than others? Is it better to kill or capture terrorist leaders? How does leadership decapitation compare to other counterterrorism options? With compelling evidence based on an original dataset along with an in-depth case study of Hamas, Targeting Top Terrorists contributes to scholarship on terrorism and organizational theory and provides insights for policy makers and practitioners on some of the most pressing debates in the field.




The Recruiter


Book Description

This revealing memoir from a 34-year veteran of the CIA who worked as a case officer and recruiter of foreign agents before and after 9/11 provides an invaluable perspective on the state of modern spy craft, how the CIA has developed, and how it must continue to evolve. If you've ever wondered what it's like to be a modern-day spy, Douglas London is here to explain. London’s overseas work involved spotting and identifying targets, building relationships over weeks or months, and then pitching them to work for the CIA—all the while maintaining various identities, a day job, and a very real wife and kids at home. The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence captures the best stories from London's life as a spy, his insights into the challenges and failures of intelligence work, and the complicated relationships he developed with agents and colleagues. In the end, London presents a highly readable insider’s tale about the state of espionage, a warning about the decline of American intelligence since 9/11 and Iraq, and what can be done to recover.




Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation Against Terrorist Organizations


Book Description

This project answers four questions: (1) Under what conditions does leadership decapitation result in the dissolution of a terrorist organization? (2) Does leadership decapitation increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond the baseline rate of collapse for groups over time? (3) In cases where decapitation does not result in group collapse, to what extent does it result in organizational degradation and hinder a group's ability to carry about terrorist attack? And (4) what explains the success and failure of decapitation?




The Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation as a Counterterrorism Strategy Against Islamist Terrorist Groups


Book Description

This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of leadership decapitation as a counterterrorism strategy against Islamist terrorist groups by evaluating attack data and other historical and contextual factors in three case studies: al-Qaeda in Iraq, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, and the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria. My main finding is that leadership decapitation is not correlated with the reduction of terrorist activities by these groups. Theories on leadership decapitation did not predict the increase or decrease in a group's attack capabilities in any consistent or reliable manner. In all of these cases, experts heavily attributed the changes in a group's operational capability to factors other than leadership decapitation. The key lesson policy-makers and military planners can draw from this study is that the experiences and outcomes of leadership decapitation against one terrorist group should in no way be directly applied to or expected in another.




Rise and Kill First


Book Description

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The first definitive history of the Mossad, Shin Bet, and the IDF’s targeted killing programs, hailed by The New York Times as “an exceptional work, a humane book about an incendiary subject.” WINNER OF THE NATIONAL JEWISH BOOK AWARD IN HISTORY NAMED ONE OF THE TEN BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY JENNIFER SZALAI, THE NEW YORK TIMES NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The Economist • The New York Times Book Review • BBC History Magazine • Mother Jones • Kirkus Reviews The Talmud says: “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first.” This instinct to take every measure, even the most aggressive, to defend the Jewish people is hardwired into Israel’s DNA. From the very beginning of its statehood in 1948, protecting the nation from harm has been the responsibility of its intelligence community and armed services, and there is one weapon in their vast arsenal that they have relied upon to thwart the most serious threats: Targeted assassinations have been used countless times, on enemies large and small, sometimes in response to attacks against the Israeli people and sometimes preemptively. In this page-turning, eye-opening book, journalist and military analyst Ronen Bergman—praised by David Remnick as “arguably [Israel’s] best investigative reporter”—offers a riveting inside account of the targeted killing programs: their successes, their failures, and the moral and political price exacted on the men and women who approved and carried out the missions. Bergman has gained the exceedingly rare cooperation of many current and former members of the Israeli government, including Prime Ministers Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak, Ariel Sharon, and Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as high-level figures in the country’s military and intelligence services: the IDF (Israel Defense Forces), the Mossad (the world’s most feared intelligence agency), Caesarea (a “Mossad within the Mossad” that carries out attacks on the highest-value targets), and the Shin Bet (an internal security service that implemented the largest targeted assassination campaign ever, in order to stop what had once appeared to be unstoppable: suicide terrorism). Including never-before-reported, behind-the-curtain accounts of key operations, and based on hundreds of on-the-record interviews and thousands of files to which Bergman has gotten exclusive access over his decades of reporting, Rise and Kill First brings us deep into the heart of Israel’s most secret activities. Bergman traces, from statehood to the present, the gripping events and thorny ethical questions underlying Israel’s targeted killing campaign, which has shaped the Israeli nation, the Middle East, and the entire world. “A remarkable feat of fearless and responsible reporting . . . important, timely, and informative.”—John le Carré




Opposing Perspectives


Book Description

"The effects of terrorist organization leadership decapitation on organizations' demands and behavior has not been widely studied by International Relations scholars. Research does not support decapitation as an effective counter-terrorism policy. Aided by more recent literature on behavioral economics citing pro-social orientations, national identities and cognitive research this article argues that decapitation increases the amount of unlikely demands by the group. I argue specifically that, for externally induced leadership decapitation unlikely demands should increase, while for internally induced leadership decapitation unlikely demands should decrease. I examine these hypotheses using data on terrorist leadership decapitation for the 1970-2008 period; this model suggests support for the prevailing literature on terrorist organization leadership decapitation as a successful counterterrorism policy."--Boise State University ScholarWorks.