Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics


Book Description

When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and unofficial statistics. Our evidence suggests that rather than ignoring biased statistics or navively taking them at face value, households react in a sophisticated way, as predicted by a Bayesian learning model, effectively de-biasing the official data to extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations changing more when the inflation rate rises than when it falls. These results are useful for understanding the formation of inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree that statistics are unbiased but households do not.




Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions


Book Description

Healthcare providers, consumers, researchers and policy makers are inundated with unmanageable amounts of information, including evidence from healthcare research. It has become impossible for all to have the time and resources to find, appraise and interpret this evidence and incorporate it into healthcare decisions. Cochrane Reviews respond to this challenge by identifying, appraising and synthesizing research-based evidence and presenting it in a standardized format, published in The Cochrane Library (www.thecochranelibrary.com). The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions contains methodological guidance for the preparation and maintenance of Cochrane intervention reviews. Written in a clear and accessible format, it is the essential manual for all those preparing, maintaining and reading Cochrane reviews. Many of the principles and methods described here are appropriate for systematic reviews applied to other types of research and to systematic reviews of interventions undertaken by others. It is hoped therefore that this book will be invaluable to all those who want to understand the role of systematic reviews, critically appraise published reviews or perform reviews themselves.




Big Data and Social Science


Book Description

Both Traditional Students and Working Professionals Acquire the Skills to Analyze Social Problems. Big Data and Social Science: A Practical Guide to Methods and Tools shows how to apply data science to real-world problems in both research and the practice. The book provides practical guidance on combining methods and tools from computer science, statistics, and social science. This concrete approach is illustrated throughout using an important national problem, the quantitative study of innovation. The text draws on the expertise of prominent leaders in statistics, the social sciences, data science, and computer science to teach students how to use modern social science research principles as well as the best analytical and computational tools. It uses a real-world challenge to introduce how these tools are used to identify and capture appropriate data, apply data science models and tools to that data, and recognize and respond to data errors and limitations. For more information, including sample chapters and news, please visit the author's website.




Learning From Biased Research Designs


Book Description

Most contemporary empirical work in political science aims to learn about causal effects from research designs that may be subject to bias. We provide a Bayesian framework for understanding how researchers should approach the general problem of inferring causal effects from potentially biased research designs. The key to our approach is that both researchers and their audiences have prior beliefs about both causal effects and the degree and direction of bias. Once these priors are specified, what a rational researcher should learn from a potentially biased estimate can be derived from Bayes' rule. We apply this principle to explore when we should learn more or less from basic difference of means estimates, and then extend our analysis to speak to common modern designs intended to uncover causal effects.




Finding What Works in Health Care


Book Description

Healthcare decision makers in search of reliable information that compares health interventions increasingly turn to systematic reviews for the best summary of the evidence. Systematic reviews identify, select, assess, and synthesize the findings of similar but separate studies, and can help clarify what is known and not known about the potential benefits and harms of drugs, devices, and other healthcare services. Systematic reviews can be helpful for clinicians who want to integrate research findings into their daily practices, for patients to make well-informed choices about their own care, for professional medical societies and other organizations that develop clinical practice guidelines. Too often systematic reviews are of uncertain or poor quality. There are no universally accepted standards for developing systematic reviews leading to variability in how conflicts of interest and biases are handled, how evidence is appraised, and the overall scientific rigor of the process. In Finding What Works in Health Care the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommends 21 standards for developing high-quality systematic reviews of comparative effectiveness research. The standards address the entire systematic review process from the initial steps of formulating the topic and building the review team to producing a detailed final report that synthesizes what the evidence shows and where knowledge gaps remain. Finding What Works in Health Care also proposes a framework for improving the quality of the science underpinning systematic reviews. This book will serve as a vital resource for both sponsors and producers of systematic reviews of comparative effectiveness research.




Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2016


Book Description

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: Editors' Introduction Credit Policy as Fiscal Policy, Deborah Lucas Comments by Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics, Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia Comments by Stefan Nagel and Ricardo Reis Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?, David M. Byrne, John G. Fernald, and Marshall B. Reinsdorf Comments by Martin Neil Baily and Robert J. Gordon Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market, Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, Ricardo Trezzi, and Abigail Wozniak Comments by Erica L. Groshen and John Haltiwanger Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data, Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques, Jacob Krimmel, and John Sabelhaus Comments by Katharine G. Abraham and Wojciech Kopczuk Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop Out of High School, Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine Comments by Miles Corak and Robert A. Moffitt




Applying Quantitative Bias Analysis to Epidemiologic Data


Book Description

Bias analysis quantifies the influence of systematic error on an epidemiology study’s estimate of association. The fundamental methods of bias analysis in epi- miology have been well described for decades, yet are seldom applied in published presentations of epidemiologic research. More recent advances in bias analysis, such as probabilistic bias analysis, appear even more rarely. We suspect that there are both supply-side and demand-side explanations for the scarcity of bias analysis. On the demand side, journal reviewers and editors seldom request that authors address systematic error aside from listing them as limitations of their particular study. This listing is often accompanied by explanations for why the limitations should not pose much concern. On the supply side, methods for bias analysis receive little attention in most epidemiology curriculums, are often scattered throughout textbooks or absent from them altogether, and cannot be implemented easily using standard statistical computing software. Our objective in this text is to reduce these supply-side barriers, with the hope that demand for quantitative bias analysis will follow.




Developing a Protocol for Observational Comparative Effectiveness Research: A User's Guide


Book Description

This User’s Guide is a resource for investigators and stakeholders who develop and review observational comparative effectiveness research protocols. It explains how to (1) identify key considerations and best practices for research design; (2) build a protocol based on these standards and best practices; and (3) judge the adequacy and completeness of a protocol. Eleven chapters cover all aspects of research design, including: developing study objectives, defining and refining study questions, addressing the heterogeneity of treatment effect, characterizing exposure, selecting a comparator, defining and measuring outcomes, and identifying optimal data sources. Checklists of guidance and key considerations for protocols are provided at the end of each chapter. The User’s Guide was created by researchers affiliated with AHRQ’s Effective Health Care Program, particularly those who participated in AHRQ’s DEcIDE (Developing Evidence to Inform Decisions About Effectiveness) program. Chapters were subject to multiple internal and external independent reviews. More more information, please consult the Agency website: www.effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov)




Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis


Book Description

Publication bias is the tendency to decide to publish a study based on the results of the study, rather than on the basis of its theoretical or methodological quality. It can arise from selective publication of favorable results, or of statistically significant results. This threatens the validity of conclusions drawn from reviews of published scientific research. Meta-analysis is now used in numerous scientific disciplines, summarizing quantitative evidence from multiple studies. If the literature being synthesised has been affected by publication bias, this in turn biases the meta-analytic results, potentially producing overstated conclusions. Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis examines the different types of publication bias, and presents the methods for estimating and reducing publication bias, or eliminating it altogether. Written by leading experts, adopting a practical and multidisciplinary approach. Provides comprehensive coverage of the topic including: Different types of publication bias, Mechanisms that may induce them, Empirical evidence for their existence, Statistical methods to address them, Ways in which they can be avoided. Features worked examples and common data sets throughout. Explains and compares all available software used for analysing and reducing publication bias. Accompanied by a website featuring software, data sets and further material. Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis adopts an inter-disciplinary approach and will make an excellent reference volume for any researchers and graduate students who conduct systematic reviews or meta-analyses. University and medical libraries, as well as pharmaceutical companies and government regulatory agencies, will also find this invaluable.




Systematic Reviews in Health Care


Book Description

The second edition of this best-selling book has been thoroughly revised and expanded to reflect the significant changes and advances made in systematic reviewing. New features include discussion on the rationale, meta-analyses of prognostic and diagnostic studies and software, and the use of systematic reviews in practice.