Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models


Book Description

We construct a simple reduced-form example of a conditional pricing model with modest intrinsic nonlinearity. The theoretical magnitude of the pricing errors (alphas) induced by the application of standard linear conditioning are derived as a direct consequence of an omitted variables bias. When the model is calibrated to either characteristics sorted or industry portfolios, we find that the alphas generated by approximation-induced specification error are economically large. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that finite-sample alphas are even larger. It also shows that the power to detect omitted nonlinear factors through tests based on estimated risk premiums can sometimes be quite low, even when the effect of misspecification on alphas is large.




Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models


Book Description

If a nonlinear risk premium in a conditional asset pricing model is approximated with a linear function, as is commonly done in empirical research, the fitted model is misspecified. We use a generic reduced-form model economy with moderate risk premium nonlinearity to examine the size of the resulting misspecification-induced pricing errors. Pricing errors from moderate nonlinearity can be large, and a version of a test for nonlinearity based on risk premiums rather than pricing errors has reasonable power properties after properly controlling for the size of the test. We conclude by examining the importance of moderate nonlinearity in the context of the investment-specific technology shock models of Papanikolaou (2011) and Kogan and Papanikolaou (2014).







Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)


Book Description

This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.




Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices


Book Description

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.




A Dynamic Test of Conditional Asset Pricing Models


Book Description

I use Bayesian tools to develop a dynamic testing methodology for conditional factor pricing models, in which time-varying betas, idiosyncratic risks, and factors risk premia are jointly estimated in a single step. Based on this framework, I test over fifty years of post-war monthly data some of the most common factor pricing models on size, book-to-market, and momentum deciles portfolios, both in the time series and in the cross section. The empirical results show that, a conditional specification of the recent five-factor model of Fama and French (2015) outperforms a set of theory-based competing linear pricing models along several dimensions.




Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables


Book Description

Financial econometrics is one of the greatest on-going success stories of recent decades, as it has become one of the most active areas of research in econometrics. In this book, Michael Clements presents a clear and logical explanation of the key concepts and ideas of forecasts of economic and financial variables. He shows that forecasts of the single most likely outcome of an economic and financial variable are of limited value. Forecasts that provide more information on the expected likely ranges of outcomes are more relevant. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the evaluation of different types of forecasts and draws out the parallels between the different approaches. It describes the methods of evaluating these more complex forecasts which provide a fuller description of the range of possible future outcomes.










Handbook of Economic Forecasting


Book Description

Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.