Stock Cycles


Book Description

"Important reading for serious investors."-InvestorsInsight.com For most Americans, a 401k plan is their first exposure to investing. Many of us are relying on the stock market to provide for us in our retirement yet at the same time, most of us are afraid of the stock market. It's a valid concern. How can something so important to our financial future be so completely unpredictable? When Michael Alexander first started investing in the stock market, he noticed that few analysts seemed to have much knowledge of what the market has done in the past. While no one can give precise answers to questions about the future of the market and be right all the time, Alexander feels that it's possible to gain an understanding of the future of the stock market by studying its past. Analyzing years of historical data for patterns of behavior that might repeat in the future, Alexander provides strong statistical evidence for a cyclical pattern in the stock market. These Stock Cycles show that long periods of poor stock returns have always followed long periods of good returns. Are we in for good times or is the party over?




Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies


Book Description

The stock-investing classic--UPDATED TO HELP YOU WIN IN TODAY'S CHAOTIC GLOBAL ECONOMY Much has changed since the last edition of Stocks for the Long Run. The financial crisis, the deepest bear market since the Great Depression, and the continued growth of the emerging markets are just some of the contingencies directly affecting every portfolio inthe world. To help you navigate markets and make the best investment decisions, Jeremy Siegel has updated his bestselling guide to stock market investing. This new edition of Stocks for the Long Run answers all the important questions of today: How did the crisis alter the financial markets and the future of stock returns? What are the sources of long-term economic growth? How does the Fed really impact investing decisions? Should you hedge against currency instability? Stocks for the Long Run, Fifth Edition, includes brand-new coverage of: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Siegel provides an expert’s analysis of the most important factors behind the crisis; the state of current stability/instability of the financial system and where the stock market fits in; and the viability of value investing as a long-term strategy. CHINA AND INDIA The economies of these nations are more than one-third larger than they were before the 2008 financial crisis; you'll get the information you need to earn long-termprofits in this new environment. GLOBAL MARKETS Learn all there is to know about the nature, size, and role of diversification in today’s global economy; Siegel extends his projections of the global economy until the end of this century. MARKET VALUATION Can stocks still provide 6 to 7 percent per year after inflation? This edition forecasts future stock returns and shows how to determine whether the market is overvalued or not. Essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the forces that move today's markets, Stocks for the Long Run provides the most complete summary available of historical trends that will help you develop a sound and profitable long-term portfolio. PRAISE FOR STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN: “Jeremy Siegel is one of the great ones.”—JIM CRAMER, CNBC’s Mad Money “[Jeremy Siegel’s] contributions to finance and investing are of such significance as to change the direction of the profession.”—THE FINANCIAL ANALYST INSTITUTE “A simply great book.”—FORBES “One of the top ten business books of the year.”—BUSINESSWEEK “Should command a central place on the desk of any ‘amateur’ investor or beginning professional.”—BARRON’S “Siegel’s case for stocks is unbridled and compelling.”—USA TODAY “A clearly written, neatly organized, highly persuasive exposition that lifts the veil of mystery from investing.”—JOHN C. BOGLE, founder and former Chairman, The Vanguard Group







The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles


Book Description

Jeffrey Hirsch discusses how to capture market-beating returns by following specific stock market cycles While predicting the direction of the stock market at any given point is difficult, it's a fact that the market exhibits well-defined and sometimes predictable patterns. While cycles do not repeat exactly all of the time, statistical evidence suggests that cyclical tendencies are very strong and should not be ignored by investors. The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will show you how to profit from these recurring stock market patterns and cycles. Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, this reliable resource explains why these cycles occur, provides the historical evidence behind them, and shows you how to capture consistent profits from them moving forward. In addition to describing his most widely followed cycles and patters, Hirsch also discusses both longer term boom-bust economic cycles and shorter term tendencies involving the best days, weeks, and months of the year to trade the market. The methods found here follow everything from presidential election cycles to the "Santa Claus" effect Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, the pre-eminent authority on market cycles and seasonal patterns The strategies explored are easy-to-implement, and based on research that has proven profitable over the course of time For investors looking to beat the buy-and-hold philosophy, The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will provide simple, actionable ideas that have stood the test of time and consistently outperformed the market.




Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data


Book Description

The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.




Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting (New Series) Vol.5


Book Description

Advances in Financial Planning and Froecasting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the area of financial analysis, planning, and forecasting. The publication is a froum for statistical, quantitative, and accounting analyses of issues in financial analysis and planning in terms of finance, accounting, and economic data.




Financial Markets and the Real Economy


Book Description

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.




Mathematical Economics and the Dynamics of Capitalism


Book Description

Richard Goodwin was a pioneer in the use of mathematical tools to understand the dynamics of capitalist economies. This book contains contributions which focus on the rigorous extension of Goodwin’s modelling of macro-dynamics and the micro-structures underlying them, and also research with a wider perspective related to Goodwin’s vision of an integrated Marx-Keynes-Schumpeter (M-K-S) system of the dynamics of capitalist economies. The variety of approaches in this book range from detailed business cycle analyses to Schumpeterian processes of creative destruction. They include thorough theoretical analysis of delayed dynamical systems. empirical studies of Goodwin’s classical growth cycle model and the integration of Keynesian aspects of effective demand and of financial mechanisms that impact the real macro-economy. micro-economic structural analysis. expectations driven aspects of micro-founded business cycle modelling