Maintaining food and nutrition security in Myanmar during the COVID-19 crisis: Lessons from India’s lockdown


Book Description

The recent sudden imposition of a stringent 21-day lockdown in India in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the food security of many vulnerable Indians. These impacts highlight the many challenges that this kind of anti-COVID intervention can pose in other settings where the labor force is mostly informally employed with poor job security and low wages, and where the agri-food systems is similarly informal with widespread use of open-air markets. Myanmar is such a setting. India’s chastening experience with food security during its lockdown suggests the following actions would be imperative for maintaining food security in Myanmar: • Allow the free movement of all goods. A stable and reliable agri-food system requires free movements of a wide range of food products (including micronutrient-rich fruits, vegetables and animal-sourced foods) as well as essential non-food goods. • Monitor food markets and agricultural value chains as closely as possible to address problems when they do arise. • Reduce risk of COVID-19 contagion by improving hygiene in Myanmar’s food markets. • Issue clear directives to police, military, and local authorities not to impede the movement of goods. The Government of Myanmar should learn from the mistakes made in India and other developing countries. We must recognize that basic food and nutrition security must be maintained at all times through this complex health and socioeconomic crisis.




Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications


Book Description

Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.




The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on maternal and child malnutrition in Myanmar: What to expect, and how to protect


Book Description

The COVID-19 crisis in Myanmar poses a very serious risk to the nutritional status of vulnerable populations, notably women and children, as well as poor urban populations and internally displaced persons. The COVID-19 crisis will hit vulnerable groups through multiple mechanisms.




Strengthening smallholder agriculture is essential to defend food and nutrition security and rural livelihoods in Myanmar against the COVID-19 threat: Elements for a proactive response


Book Description

There is an urgent need to anticipate and mitigate the threat posed by COVID-19 to Myanmar’s agricultural sector and to rural households that depend on farming for income and for food and nutrition security. We evaluate options to address the threat and to support farmers to prepare their land and plant their crops on time in the short window before the start of the 2020 monsoon cropping season. Recognizing that no single intervention can address the full range of vulnerabilities faced by rural households, we recommend a combination: • Expansion of access to seasonal farm credit with extended loan repayment schedules; • Limited agricultural input subsidies targeting certified seed; and • Implementation of a cash transfer program to smallholder farmers. Despite the high cost of a cash transfer program, there are good reasons to expect that the benefits of such support to farm households will outweigh program costs in monetary terms – even more so if the economic benefits from the consequent lower incidence of malnutrition to which the program would contribute can be measured.




Maintaining food and nutrition security in Myanmar during the COVID-19 crisis: Lessons from India’s lockdown [in Burmese]


Book Description

COVID-19ကမ􀈪ာ့ကပ်ေရာဂါကာလအတွင်း မ􀆭ကာေသးမီက အိ􀇳􀈤ိယ􀇳ိုင်ငံတွင် ၂၁ရက်􀆭ကာ တင်း􀆭ကပ်ေသာ ပိတ်ဆို့ကန့်သတ်မ􀋪 (lockdown)ကို 􀇸ုတ်တရက်ချမှတ်ခဲ့ြခင်းသည် ထိခိုက်လွယ်သည့် များစွာေသာ အိ􀇳􀈤ိယ􀇳ိုင်ငံသားများ၏ အစားအစာဖူလံုမ􀋪ကို ဆိုးကျိုးများ ြဖစ်ေပါ်ေစခဲ့ပါသည်။ လုပ်သားအများစုသည် မေရရာေသာ လုပ်ခနည်းသည့် ကျပမ်းအလုပ်လုပ်ကိုင်သူများြဖစ်􀆱ပီး လဟာြပင်ေစျး များကိုသာ ကျယ်ကျယ်ြပန့်ြပန့် အသံုးြပုလျက်􀇹ှိသည့် စနစ်ြဖင့်ချုပ်ကိုင်ထားမ􀋪နည်းေသာ(informal) အစားအစာစိုက်ပျိုးထုတ်လုပ်ေရး စနစ်􀇹ှိသည့် ေနာက်ခံဝန်းကျင်များတွင် အစိုးရ၏ ထိုသို့ေသာ COVID-19ကာကွယ်ေရးလုပ်ငန်းများသည် စိန်ေခါ်မ􀋪များစွာ ြဖစ်ေစ􀇳ိုင်ေ􀆭ကာင်း အိ􀇳􀈤ိယမှြဖစ်ရပ်များက မီးေမာင်းထိုးြပေနပါသည်။ ြမန်မာ􀇳ိုင်ငံသည် ထိုသို့ေသာေနာက်ခံဝန်းကျင်􀇹ှိသည့် 􀇳ိုင်ငံတစ်􀇳ိုင်ငံ ြဖစ်ပါသည်။ အိ􀇳􀈤ိယ၏lockdownကာလအတွင်း စားနပ်ရိက􀈓ာဖူလံုေရး􀇳ှင့်ပတ်သတ်သည့် ချို􀋺ယွင်းချက်များစွာ􀇹ှိခဲ့ေသာ အေတွ􀋺အ􀆭ကံုက ြမန်မာ􀇳ိုင်ငံ၏ အစားအစာဖူလံုမ􀋪ကိုထိန်းသိမ်းရန်အတွက် ေအာက်ပါလုပ်ငန်းများသည် အ လွန်အ ေရး􀆳ကီးေ􀆭ကာင်း အ􀆭ကံုြပုေနပါသည်။ • ကုန်စည်အမျိုးအစားအားလံုးအား လွပ်လပ်စွာ စီးဆင်းခွင့်ေပးြခင်း- တည်􀆱ငိမ်ေသာ အစားအစာစိုက်ပျိုးထုတ်လုပ် ေရးစနစ်သည် အစားအစာအမျိုးအမည်အစံု (အနည်းလိုအာဟာရများ􀇤ကယ်ဝသည့် သစ်သီးဝလံများ၊ ဟင်းသီးဟင်းရွက်များ၊ တိရစ􀈘ာန်များမှရေသာ အစားအစာများ အပါအဝင်)􀇳ှင့်အတူ မ􀇹ှိမြဖစ်လိုအပ်ေသာ စားစရာမဟုတ်သည့်ကုန်စည်များပါ လွပ်လပ်စွာ စီးဆင်းမ􀋪􀇹ှိေစရန် လိုအပ် ပါသည်။ • ြပဿနာများေပါ်ေပါက်လာပါက ၎င်းတို့ကိုေြဖ􀇹ှင်း􀇳ိုင်ရန် အစားအစာေစျးကွက်များ􀇳ှင့် တန်ဖိုးကွင်းဆက်များကို ြဖစ်􀇳ိုင်သမ􀈂 နီးကပ်စွာ ေစာင့်􀆭ကည့်ြခင်း • ြမန်မာ􀇳ိုင်ငံအတွင်း􀇹ှိ အစားအစာေရာင်းချသည့်ေစျးများတွင် သန့်􀇹ှင်းမ􀋪ကိုြမ􀋁င့်တင်ြခင်းြဖင့် COVID-19ပျံ􀋺􀇳ှံ့􀇳ိုင်မ􀋪အ􀇳􀈢ရာယ်ကို ေလ􀈂ာ့ချ ြခင်း • ကုန်စည်စီးဆင်းမ􀋪ကို မတားဆီးေစရန် ရဲ၊စစ်တပ်􀇳ှင့်အြခားေဒသအာဏာပိုင်များသို့ 􀇹ှင်းလင်းေသာ 􀇷􀈄န်􀆭ကားချက်များ ထုတ်ြပန် ထားြခင်း ြမန်မာအစိုးရသည် ဤ􀇸􀋪ပ်ေထွးေသာ ကျန်းမာေရး􀇳ှင့်လူမ􀋪စီးပွားေရးအကျပ်အတည်းကာလတေလ􀈂ာက် အချိန်တိုင်းတွင် အေြခခံအစားအစာ􀇳ှင့်အာဟာရဖူလံုမ􀋪ကို ထိန်းသိမ်းရမည်ြဖစ်ေ􀆭ကာင်း အိ􀇳􀈤ိယ􀇳ှင့်အြခားဖွံ􀋺􀆱ဖိုးဆဲ􀇳ိုင်ငံများ၏ အမှားအယွင်းများမှ သင်ခန်းစာရယူသင့်ပါသည်။




COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later


Book Description

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.




Impacts of COVID-19 on food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria


Book Description

This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.




COVID-19 and food security in Ethiopia: Do social protection programs protect?


Book Description

We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.




Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19


Book Description

Many governments imposed stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic as a public health measure to suppress the spread of the disease. With consumer incomes already depressed, the potential impacts of these measures on urban food prices are of particular concern. This working paper examines the changes in Myanmar’s urban food prices during lockdown using detailed food price data collected from a panel of phone surveys conducted in August and September 2020 of 431 family-owned retail shops in Myanmar’s two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. We find that the supply side of Myanmar’s food retail sector was largely resilient to the shocks and lockdowns throughout the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates from a fixed effects differencein-differences model reveal that food prices were 3 percent higher in townships under lockdown compared to those not under lockdown, a statistically significant but modest effect. Lockdowns had smaller effects on prices for highly processed food items sourced directly from companies, but larger effects on prices for raw or lightly processed commodities sourced through wholesale markets, which comprise a larger share of urban consumer’s diets. Retailer margins did not change significantly under lockdown restrictions, suggesting no evidence of price gouging. Overall, our findings of a modest impact of the lockdown on urban food prices underscore the importance of keeping the food supply chain–including wholesale markets and retail shops–functioning as completely and as safely as possible during times of crisis, as was mostly the case early in the crisis for the two cities in this study.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.