Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 16,19 MB
Release : 2011-10-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498339204
This paper, introduces the analytical framework for a Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries (VE-LIC). The envisaged exercise will strive to identify vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment in a consistent manner across countries and across time. The objective is to strengthen the staff’s capacity to spot vulnerabilities and flag potential pressure points in LICs arising from external triggers before they materialize.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 50,62 MB
Release : 2011-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498338321
The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?
Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 32,93 MB
Release : 2012-11-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475548834
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 33,40 MB
Release : 2012-09-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475510683
The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.
Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 32,63 MB
Release : 2012-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1463937105
This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.
Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 19,56 MB
Release : 2011-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1463923287
This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 49,80 MB
Release : 2012-06-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475596944
As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 16,5 MB
Release : 2012-04-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498340644
This paper aims to widen the lens through which surveillance is conducted in LICs, to better account for the interplay between financial deepening and macro-financial stability as called for in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review. Reflecting the inherent risk-return tradeoffs associated with financial deepening, the paper seeks to shed light on the policy and institutional impediments in LICs that have a bearing on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, macro-financial stability, and growth. The paper focuses attention on the role of enabling policies in facilitating sustainable financial deepening. In framing the discussion, the paper draws on a range of conceptual and analytical tools, empirical analyses, and case studies.
Author : Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 29,41 MB
Release : 2016-03-17
Category : Nature
ISBN : 1475523955
The exposure of low-income countries to natural disasters has a significant impact on food production and food security. This paper provides a framework for assessing a country’s vulnerability to food crisis in the event of natural disasters. The paper finds that macroeconomic and structural indicators that are crucial for ensuring the resilience of low-income countries to adverse external shocks are equally important for minimizing the occurrence of food crisis in the event of natural disasters.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 36,20 MB
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 146396854X
This paper provides a historical perspective on the role of international reserves in low-income countries as a cushion against large external shocks over the last three decades - including the current global crisis. The results suggest that international reserves have played a role in buffering external shocks, with the resulting macroeconomic costs varying with the nature of the shock, the economy's structural characteristics, and the level of reserves.
