Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy


Book Description

The series of heads and tails obtained when tossing a fair coin exemplifies a random sequence. Randomness defies a strict definition, yet it is widely used in daily and scientific discourse. When perceiving or producing randomness, people err by exaggeratedly expecting a change after a few identical symbols. This is the gambler's fallacy (GF). Diverse real manifestations of GF, in casino or lottery decisions, expressions in fiction and art, and uses in deciphering codes, are all described, interwoven with stories and anecdotes. The roots of GF are presumably ascribed to one's inability to forget or ignore previous stimuli in a sequence. Students, not only of psychology, and other inquisitive readers may find the GF issue challenging.




The Gambler's Fallacy


Book Description

In The Gambler’s Fallacy, the author utilizes deep symbolism to reflect on today’s society. While partaking in a tradition with her friends Matilda uncovers a dark reality that she hopes is just a delusion. As she scours her memories she uncovers her own truth. A truth nobody would like to know, but cannot avoid.




Rationality and Social Responsibility


Book Description

The breadth of topics reflects Dawes's wide-ranging impact on psychological theory and empirical practice. The two themes of rationality and social responsibility feature heavily. The book serves as an overview of psychological science development in its struggle to reconcile what is true with what is good.




Argumentation


Book Description

This book addresses two questions: what makes an argument persuasive and what makes a claims that support them plausible?




Gambler's Fallacy


Book Description

'The conundrum at the core of Gambler's Fallacy, author and translator Judith Cowan's seven-story follow-up to her distinguished 1997 debut, More Than Life Itself, involves an impressively erratic cast of fearful and fragile Québécois characters, capriciously transformed into victims of the strange vagaries of chance and serendipitous circumstance. Not unlike Raymond Carver or Alice Munro, Cowan creates heartbreakingly felicitous portraits of Chekhovian elegance, featuring the ordinarily forgotten little folks who, for no apparent reason or logical explanation, have fallen through the cracks. ... Suffused with a largeness of spirit everywhere animated by moments of aching clarity and lyrical grace, Cowan's gritty minimalist vignettes will, if truth be told, simply break the most hardened of readers' hearts. You can bet the farm on it.'




Teaching and Learning Stochastics


Book Description

This book presents a collection of selected papers that represent the current variety of research on the teaching and learning of probability. The respective chapters address a diverse range of theoretical, empirical and practical aspects underpinning the teaching and learning of probability, curricular issues, probabilistic reasoning, misconceptions and biases, as well as their pedagogical implications. These chapters are divided into THREE main sections, dealing with: TEACHING PROBABILITY, STUDENTS' REASONING AND LEARNING AND EDUCATION OF TEACHERS. In brief, the papers presented here include research dealing with teachers and students at different levels and ages (from primary school to university) and address epistemological and curricular analysis, as well as the role of technology, simulations, language and visualisation in teaching and learning probability. As such, it offers essential information for teachers, researchers and curricular designers alike.




Collected Papers, Volume 2


Book Description

This volume collects the best and most influential essays on knowledge, rationality and morality that Stephen Stich has published in the last 40 years. The volume includes a new introductory essay that offers an overview of the papers and traces the history of how they emerged.




Fallacies


Book Description

Since 1970, when Charles Hamblin issued a challenge for philosophers, logicians, and educators in general to begin work anew in fallacies, a serious literature on fallacies has indeed developed. Part of this literature deals with the theory of what fallacies are; another part of it contains rigorous analyses of particular fallacies. However, most is still not readily accessible to the researcher, teacher, or student of the field. As a result, the best work on fallacies is not finding its way into the classroom, nor is it informing the educational and intellectual experiences available to most college and university students. A major purpose of this book is to make the post-Hamblin work on fallacies available to a wider audience in a single, convenient volume. The editors have brought together for the first time the most important historical writings on fallacy theory, from Aristotle to John Stuart Mill, and the most recent and most important theoretical and pedagogical developments in the field since Hamblin's landmark 1970 book. All but a few of the essays included are new contributions for this anthology, and an extensive annotated bibliography is included for researchers and students of fallacies and fallacy theory.




The Biggest Bluff


Book Description

A New York Times bestseller • A New York Times Notable Book “The tale of how Konnikova followed a story about poker players and wound up becoming a story herself will have you riveted, first as you learn about her big winnings, and then as she conveys the lessons she learned both about human nature and herself.” —The Washington Post It's true that Maria Konnikova had never actually played poker before and didn't even know the rules when she approached Erik Seidel, Poker Hall of Fame inductee and winner of tens of millions of dollars in earnings, and convinced him to be her mentor. But she knew her man: a famously thoughtful and broad-minded player, he was intrigued by her pitch that she wasn't interested in making money so much as learning about life. She had faced a stretch of personal bad luck, and her reflections on the role of chance had led her to a giant of game theory, who pointed her to poker as the ultimate master class in learning to distinguish between what can be controlled and what can't. And she certainly brought something to the table, including a Ph.D. in psychology and an acclaimed and growing body of work on human behavior and how to hack it. So Seidel was in, and soon she was down the rabbit hole with him, into the wild, fiercely competitive, overwhelmingly masculine world of high-stakes Texas Hold'em, their initial end point the following year's World Series of Poker. But then something extraordinary happened. Under Seidel's guidance, Konnikova did have many epiphanies about life that derived from her new pursuit, including how to better read, not just her opponents but far more importantly herself; how to identify what tilted her into an emotional state that got in the way of good decisions; and how to get to a place where she could accept luck for what it was, and what it wasn't. But she also began to win. And win. In a little over a year, she began making earnest money from tournaments, ultimately totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. She won a major title, got a sponsor, and got used to being on television, and to headlines like "How one writer's book deal turned her into a professional poker player." She even learned to like Las Vegas. But in the end, Maria Konnikova is a writer and student of human behavior, and ultimately the point was to render her incredible journey into a container for its invaluable lessons. The biggest bluff of all, she learned, is that skill is enough. Bad cards will come our way, but keeping our focus on how we play them and not on the outcome will keep us moving through many a dark patch, until the luck once again breaks our way.




A Gambler's Anatomy


Book Description

The author of Motherless Brooklyn and The Fortress of Solitude returns with a devilishly entertaining novel about an international backgammon hustler who thinks he's psychic. Too bad about the tumor in his face. Alexander Bruno travels the world playing high stakes backgammon and hunting for amateur “whales” who think they can challenge him. Lately he’s had a run of bad luck, not helped by the blot that has emerged in his field of vision, which forces him to look at the board sideways. As the blot grows larger, his game gets worse, until, at an opulent mansion in Berlin, he passes out in the middle of a match and receives an alarming diagnosis. Out of money and out of friends, he turns to the only person who can help (and the last person he wants to see): a high-rolling former childhood acquaintance who agrees to pay for Bruno’s experimental surgery in Berkeley. But Berkeley is the place where Bruno discovered his psychic gift and where he vowed never to return. There, forced to confront patchouli flashbacks and his uncertain future, he must ask himself: Is he playing the game, or is the game playing him?