Mapping Cross-Border Financial Linkages - A Supporting Case for Global Financial Safety Nets


Book Description

This paper maps cross-border financial linkages and identifies factors that drive them, contributing to the discussion on the appropriate design of a global financial safety net (GFSN). It builds on previous staff work and complements the findings of the companion paper on the Analytics of Systemic Crises and the Role of Global Financial Safety Nets. This paper notes the growing roles of financial linkages and complexity in injecting latent instability into the global financial system, underscoring the value of a GFSN design that is effective in forestalling the risk that a localized liquidity shock propagates through the global financial network turning into a large-scale systemic crisis.




Mapping Cross-border Financial Linkages


Book Description

"This paper maps cross-border financial linkages and identifies factors that drive them, contributing to the discussion on the appropriate design of a global financial safety net (GFSN). It builds on previous staff work and complements the findings of the companion paper on the Analytics of Systemic Crises and the Role of Global Financial Safety Nets. This paper notes the growing roles of financial linkages and complexity in injecting latent instability into the global financial system, underscoring the value of a GFSN design that is effective in forestalling the risk that a localized liquidity shock propagates through the global financial network turning into a large-scale systemic crisis."--Executive summary.




IMF Lending in an Interconnected World


Book Description

We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.




Global Waves of Debt


Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.




Understanding Financial Interconnectedness


Book Description

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.




Financial Interconnectedness and Financial Sector Reforms in the Caribbean


Book Description

Financial sector linkages have increased continuously in the Caribbean with cross border capital flows and financial conglomerates dominating the financial system. While the greater interconnectedness can heighten systemic risks and likelihood of contagion, it can have positive impacts provided the regional authorities take steps to prevent the systemic risk. In this context, financial sector reform measures aimed at bolstering and harmonizing prudential regulations in line with international best practices, the strengthening and enhancement of financial sector supervision to include cross border linkages through consolidated supervision, increased cooperation across supervisors in the region, and the establishment of deposit insurance and crisis resolution frameworks will be critical to maintain financial sector stability and minimize the repercussions of any negative shocks.




The Fund's Financing Role - Reform Proposals on Liquidity and Emergency Assistance


Book Description

The possible global repercussions from the ongoing turmoil in the Euro Area and recent calls for enhanced emergency assistance in the Middle East and North African region are reminders of the urgent need for a more effective global financial safety net to deal with increased interconnectedness and volatility. Past work by staff identified gaps in the Fund’s lending toolkit to respond to liquidity needs of members with relatively strong fundamentals affected during systemic crises (the crisis bystanders), and to address urgent financing needs arising in a broader range of circumstances than natural disasters and post-conflict situations. The companion paper on the Review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) also identified gaps in the overall flexibility of the financing toolkit. This paper provides proposals to fill these gaps, while preserving the simplicity and coherence of the lending framework, and balancing members’ financing needs against the need for adequate safeguards for the use of Fund resources.




Indonesia


Book Description

This study estimated Indonesia’s potential growth rate and examined its underlying determinants. Implementing a comprehensive program to address key influencing issues can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, increase financial stability, and support capital market development. This paper also reviews the level and structure of tax revenues in Indonesia, estimates tax effort and tax efficiency, and discusses potential areas of revenue mobilization. Indonesia’s financial linkages to the rest of the world have become stronger and more diversified, which increases its exposure to systemic risks.




Pan-African Banks


Book Description

Pan-African banks are expanding rapidly across the continent, creating cross-border networks, and having a systemic presence in the banking sectors of many Sub-Saharan African countries. These banking groups are fostering financial development and economic integration, stimulating competition and efficiency, introducing product innovation and modern management and information systems, and bringing higher skills and expertise to host countries. At the same time, the rise of pan-African banks presents new challenges for regulators and supervisors. As networks expand, new channels for transmission of macro-financial risks and spillovers across home and host countries may emerge. To ensure that the gains from cross border banking are sustained and avoid raising financial stability risks, enhanced cross-border cooperation on regulatory and supervisory oversight is needed, in particular to support effective supervision on a consolidated basis. This paper takes stock of the development of pan-African banking groups; identifies regulatory, supervisory and resolution gaps; and suggests how the IMF can help the authorities address the related challenges.




Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015


Book Description

The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by a series of changes, including lower oil prices and, in some cases, diverging growth patterns and monetary policies. Expectations for rising U.S. policy rates sparked a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while long term bond yields in many advanced economies have decreased—and have turned negative for almost a third of euro area sovereign bonds—on disinflation concerns and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation. Emerging markets are caught in these global cross currents, with some oil exporters and other facing new stability challenges, while others have gained more policy space as a result of lower fuel prices and reduced inflationary pressures. The report also examines changes in international banking since the global financial crisis and finds that these changes are likely to promote more stable bank lending in host countries. Finally, the report finds that the asset management industry needs to strengthen its oversight framework to address financial stability risks from incentive problems between end-investors and portfolio managers and the risk of runs due to liquidity mismatches.