Modeling Mortality Rates with the Linear Logarithm Hazard Transform Approaches


Book Description

In this project, two approaches based on the linear logarithm hazard transform (LLHT) to modeling mortality rates are proposed. Empirical observations show that there is a linear relationship between two sequences of logarithm of the forces of mortality (hazard rates of the future lifetime) for two years. The estimated two parameters of the linear relationship can be used for forecasting mortality rates. Deterministic and stochastic mortality rates with the LLHT, Lee-Carter and CBD models are predicted, and their corresponding forecasted errors are calculated for comparing the forecasting performances. Finally, applications to pricing some mortality-linked securities based on the forecasted mortality rates are presented for illustration.




Variations of the Linear Logarithm Hazard Transform for Modelling Cohort Mortality Rates


Book Description

Observing that there is a linear relationship between two sequences of the logarithm of the forces of mortality (hazard rates of the future lifetime) for two years, two variations of the linear logarithm hazard transform (LLHT) model are proposed in this project. We first regress the sequence of the logarithm of the forces of mortality for a cohort in year y on that for a base year. Next, we repeat the same procedure a number of times with y increased by one and the base year unchanged each time, and produce two sequences of slope and intercept parameters which both look linear. Then the simple linear regression and random walk with drift model are applied to each of these two parameter sequences. The fitted parameters can be used to forecast cohort mortality rates. Deterministically and stochastically forecasted cohort mortality rates with the two LLHT-based approaches, and the Lee-Carter and CBD models are presented, and their corresponding forecasted errors and associated confidence intervals are calculated for comparing the forecasting performances. Applications in pricing term life insurance and annuities are also given for illustration.




Survival Analysis


Book Description

An excellent introduction for all those coming to the subject for the first time. New material has been added to the second edition and the original six chapters have been modified. The previous edition sold 9500 copies world wide since its release in 1996. Based on numerous courses given by the author to students and researchers in the health sciences and is written with such readers in mind. Provides a "user-friendly" layout and includes numerous illustrations and exercises. Written in such a way so as to enable readers learn directly without the assistance of a classroom instructor. Throughout, there is an emphasis on presenting each new topic backed by real examples of a survival analysis investigation, followed up with thorough analyses of real data sets.




Regression Methods in Biostatistics


Book Description

This new book provides a unified, in-depth, readable introduction to the multipredictor regression methods most widely used in biostatistics: linear models for continuous outcomes, logistic models for binary outcomes, the Cox model for right-censored survival times, repeated-measures models for longitudinal and hierarchical outcomes, and generalized linear models for counts and other outcomes. Treating these topics together takes advantage of all they have in common. The authors point out the many-shared elements in the methods they present for selecting, estimating, checking, and interpreting each of these models. They also show that these regression methods deal with confounding, mediation, and interaction of causal effects in essentially the same way. The examples, analyzed using Stata, are drawn from the biomedical context but generalize to other areas of application. While a first course in statistics is assumed, a chapter reviewing basic statistical methods is included. Some advanced topics are covered but the presentation remains intuitive. A brief introduction to regression analysis of complex surveys and notes for further reading are provided.




Survival Analysis Using S


Book Description

Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter written by Stephen Portnoy, censored regression quantiles - a new nonparametric regression methodology (2003) - is developed to identify important forms of population heterogeneity and to detect departures from traditional Cox models. By generalizing the Kaplan-Meier estimator to regression models for conditional quantiles, this methods provides a valuable complement to traditional Cox proportional hazards approaches.




Survival Models and Data Analysis


Book Description

Survival analysis deals with the distribution of life times, essentially the times from an initiating event such as birth or the start of a job to some terminal event such as death or pension. This book, originally published in 1980, surveys and analyzes methods that use survival measurements and concepts, and helps readers apply the appropriate method for a given situation. Four broad sections cover introductions to data, univariate survival function, multiple-failure data, and advanced topics.




Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research


Book Description

Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research describes the modelling approach to the analysis of survival data using a wide range of examples from biomedical research.Well known for its nontechnical style, this third edition contains new chapters on frailty models and their applications, competing risks, non-proportional hazards, and dependent censo




Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Second Edition


Book Description

Critically acclaimed and resoundingly popular in its first edition, Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research has been thoroughly revised and updated to reflect the many developments and advances--particularly in software--made in the field over the last 10 years. Now, more than ever, it provides an outstanding text for upper-level and graduate courses in survival analysis, biostatistics, and time-to-event analysis.The treatment begins with an introduction to survival analysis and a description of four studies that lead to survival data. Subsequent chapters then use those data sets and others to illustrate the various analytical techniques applicable to such data, including the Cox regression model, the Weibull proportional hazards model, and others. This edition features a more detailed treatment of topics such as parametric models, accelerated failure time models, and analysis of interval-censored data. The author also focuses the software section on the use of SAS, summarising the methods used by the software to generate its output and examining that output in detail. Profusely illustrated with examples and written in the author's trademark, easy-to-follow style, Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Second Edition is a thorough, practical guide to survival analysis that reflects current statistical practices.




Likelihood Methods in Survival Analysis


Book Description

Many conventional survival analysis methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier method for survival function estimation and the partial likelihood method for Cox model regression coefficients estimation, were developed under the assumption that survival times are subject to right censoring only. However, in practice, survival time observations may include interval-censored data, especially when the exact time of the event of interest cannot be observed. When interval-censored observations are present in a survival dataset, one generally needs to consider likelihood-based methods for inference. If the survival model under consideration is fully parametric, then likelihood-based methods impose neither theoretical nor computational challenges. However, if the model is semi-parametric, there will be difficulties in both theoretical and computational aspects. Likelihood Methods in Survival Analysis: With R Examples explores these challenges and provides practical solutions. It not only covers conventional Cox models where survival times are subject to interval censoring, but also extends to more complicated models, such as stratified Cox models, extended Cox models where time-varying covariates are present, mixture cure Cox models, and Cox models with dependent right censoring. The book also discusses non-Cox models, particularly the additive hazards model and parametric log-linear models for bivariate survival times where there is dependence among competing outcomes. Features Provides a broad and accessible overview of likelihood methods in survival analysis Covers a wide range of data types and models, from the semi-parametric Cox model with interval censoring through to parametric survival models for competing risks Includes many examples using real data to illustrate the methods Includes integrated R code for implementation of the methods Supplemented by a GitHub repository with datasets and R code The book will make an ideal reference for researchers and graduate students of biostatistics, statistics, and data science, whose interest in survival analysis extend beyond applications. It offers useful and solid training to those who wish to enhance their knowledge in the methodology and computational aspects of biostatistics.




Regression Methods in Biostatistics


Book Description

Here is a unified, readable introduction to multipredictor regression methods in biostatistics, including linear models for continuous outcomes, logistic models for binary outcomes, the Cox model for right-censored survival times, and generalized linear models for counts and other outcomes. The authors describe shared elements in methods for selecting, estimating, checking, and interpreting each model, and show that these regression methods deal with confounding, mediation, and interaction of causal effects in essentially the same way.