Modelling Reality and Personal Modelling


Book Description

The recent introduction of two European index options on the FTSE Eurotrack 100 and the Eurotop 100 is evidence of a demand from investors to hedge pan-European risk. The FTSE Eurotrack 100 was designed to closely resemble the longer established and widely quoted Morgan Stanley European index. The Eurotrack 100 covers a hundred companies in eleven countries in continental Europe. The index is denominated in DM and' a breakdown by value into the different countries covered is given in figure 1. Capitalisation weights for Figure 1 FT-SE Eurotrack 100 Index Norway mark Germany Italy Switzerland France Netherlands Another recently introduced European index is the Eurotop 100 index denominated in EeUs, this index contains twenty two UK companies which represent 27% by value of this index. The attraction of investments in these indices is that they provide a basis for weighted exposure to Europe, investors can then build on this 240 basis by investment in individual countries. The multinational context of the universe of shares defined by this index raises some new questions for the selection of portfolios, whether the portfolios are chosen for absolute performance or to track the index. Various possible objectives of portfolio selection will be discussed, in all cases the crucial role of the covariance matrix of returns is clear. The extra source of risk present in a multinational portfolio is the combination of country risk coupled with foreign exchange risk. Two models of the return covariance matrix are proposed and examined.




Models.Behaving.Badly.


Book Description

Now in paperback, “a compelling, accessible, and provocative piece of work that forces us to question many of our assumptions” (Gillian Tett, author of Fool’s Gold). Quants, physicists working on Wall Street as quantitative analysts, have been widely blamed for triggering financial crises with their complex mathematical models. Their formulas were meant to allow Wall Street to prosper without risk. But in this penetrating insider’s look at the recent economic collapse, Emanuel Derman—former head quant at Goldman Sachs—explains the collision between mathematical modeling and economics and what makes financial models so dangerous. Though such models imitate the style of physics and employ the language of mathematics, theories in physics aim for a description of reality—but in finance, models can shoot only for a very limited approximation of reality. Derman uses his firsthand experience in financial theory and practice to explain the complicated tangles that have paralyzed the economy. Models.Behaving.Badly. exposes Wall Street’s love affair with models, and shows us why nobody will ever be able to write a model that can encapsulate human behavior.




The Great Mental Models, Volume 1


Book Description

Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.




Modelling Techniques for Financial Markets and Bank Management


Book Description

Shown is the application of up-to-date techniques for measuring efficiency, information imperfection and predictability in financial markets. Moreover, trading strategies in commodity future markets, models for the evolution of interest rates and postoptimality analysis in portfolio management are given. A couple of conceptual papers on modelling preference relations are also included.




Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery


Book Description

The volume is based on the papers that were presented at the Interna tional Conference Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery (MBR'98), held at the Collegio Ghislieri, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy, in December 1998. The papers explore how scientific thinking uses models and explanatory reasoning to produce creative changes in theories and concepts. The study of diagnostic, visual, spatial, analogical, and temporal rea soning has demonstrated that there are many ways of performing intelligent and creative reasoning that cannot be described with the help only of tradi tional notions of reasoning such as classical logic. Traditional accounts of scientific reasoning have restricted the notion of reasoning primarily to de ductive and inductive arguments. Understanding the contribution of model ing practices to discovery and conceptual change in science requires ex panding scientific reasoning to include complex forms of creative reasoning that are not always successful and can lead to incorrect solutions. The study of these heuristic ways of reasoning is situated at the crossroads of philoso phy, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and logic; that is, at the heart of cognitive science. There are several key ingredients common to the various forms of model based reasoning to be considered in this book. The models are intended as in terpretations of target physical systems, processes, phenomena, or situations. The models are retrieved or constructed on the basis of potentially satisfying salient constraints of the target domain.




Real Role Models


Book Description

All young people need good role models, and black youth especially need positive and real examples beyond the famous and wealthy people they see on SportsCenter highlights and MTV Cribs. While success as a celebrity athlete or entertainer may seem like an achievable dream, the reality is that young African Americans have a much greater chance of succeeding in the professions through education and hard work—and a mentor to show them the path. Real Role Models introduces high school and college-age African Americans to twenty-three black professionals who have achieved a high level of success in their chosen fields and who tell their stories to inspire young people to pursue a professional career and do the work necessary to achieve their dreams. Some of the individuals profiled by Joah Spearman and Louis Harrison, Jr., include Leonard Pitts, Pulitzer Prize–winning columnist for the Miami Herald; Melody Barnes, Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council; Danyel Smith, editor-in-chief of Vibe; and Dr. Tim George, Chief of Pediatric Neuroscience at Dell Children's Medical Center of Central Texas. They and other interviewees describe their backgrounds, career paths, and desire to give back by helping others reach their goals. Representing a wide range of occupations, these real role models prove to African American youths that a whole world of successful, rewarding careers awaits them. The Real Role Models Rufus Cormier, JD, Partner at the Baker Botts Law Firm, Houston, Texas Melody Barnes, Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, Washington, D.C. Eric Motley, PhD, Managing Director of the Aspen Institute's Henry Crown Fellowship Program, Aspen, Colorado James McIntyre, Spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. Tracie Hall, Assistant Dean and Librarian at Dominican University, River Forest, Illinois Kimberlydawn Wisdom, MD, Surgeon General of the State of Michigan, Lansing, Michigan Timothy George, MD, Chief of Pediatric Neuroscience at Dell Children's Medical Center, Austin, Texas Victoria Holloway Barbosa, MD, Ethnic Dermatologist and Former Executive for L'Oreal, Chicago, Illinois Bill Douglas, White House Correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers, Washington, D.C. Leonard Pitts, Jr., Columnist for the Miami Herald, Miami, Florida Danyel Smith, Editor of Vibe Magazine, New York, New York Ed Stewart, Managing Director of External Communications for Delta Airlines, Atlanta, Georgia Lynn Tyson, Vice President of Investor Relations for Dell, Austin, Texas Willie Miles, Jr., Founder and CEO of Miles Wealth Management, Houston, Texas Horace Allen, Founder and CEO of TeamPact, Atlanta, Georgia Deavra Daughtry, President and CEO of Excellent Care Management, Houston, Texas Je'Caryous Johnson, Founder and CEO of I'm Ready Productions, Houston, Texas Steve Jones, Cofounder of a graphic design company, Oakland, California Isiah Warner, PhD, Chemistry Professor at Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana Gloria Ladson-Billings, PhD, Professor of Education at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin Bernard Muir, Athletic Director at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. Craig Littlepage, Athletic Director at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia Beverly Kearney, Women's Track Coach at the University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas




Reassembling Models of Reality: Theory and Clinical Practice (Norton Series on Interpersonal Neurobiology)


Book Description

Clinical musings on the nature of reality and “known experience.” Therapists must rely on their clients’ reporting of experience in order to assess, treat, and offer help. Yet we all experience the world through various filters of one sort or another, and our experiences are transformed through several nonconscious processes before reaching our conscious awareness. Science, philosophy, and wisdom traditions share the belief that our awareness is very restricted. How, then, can anyone accurately report their experience, let alone get help with it? Neuropsychologist Aldrich Chan examines how our experience of reality is assembled and shaped by biological, psychological, sociocultural, and existential processes. Each chapter explores processes within these domains that may act as “veils.” Topics in the book include: the default mode network, cognitive distortions, decision-making heuristics, the interconnected mind, memory, and cultural concepts of distress. By understanding the ways in which reality can be distorted, clinicians can more effectively help their clients reach their personal psychotherapeutic goals.







Models and Values


Book Description




Empirical Research on the German Capital Market


Book Description

This collection of fifteen original articles results from a cooperative intensive program of research on the German capital market. The program objectives included the development of expertise in modern empirical methods in financial economics and the derivation of results that might be specific to the German capital market. The four parts of the book are dedicated to: - problems of market structure and organization - information and capital market - risk and return - futures and options Altogether, the book gives an overview of empirical research on capital markets in Germany and helps to understand their nature. It also shows the application of modern techniques in financial research.