Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals


Book Description

"This book offers a new theory for modeling how organisms make tradeoff decisions and how these decisions affect both individuals and populations. Tradeoff decisions (or behaviors) are those that are optimize survival and include behaviors like foraging and reproduction. Existing theories have not painted a complete picture of tradeoff decisions because they only observe how the decisions of an individual affect them rather than how individuals impact, and are impacted by, the behavior of their communities. The authors' theory-which they call state and prediction based theory-uses individual-based models since these models show the complex ways that organisms relate to their environment. The authors' broader approach, one that integrates behavior and population dynamics, allows ecologists to see how individuals make adaptive tradeoff decisions. In simpler terms, this theory does not assume, as the previous models do, that future conditions are fixed, known, and unaffected by the behavior of others. Instead, the authors assume individuals make decisions like people do, which is by forecasting future conditions, using approximation to make good decisions, and updating their choices as conditions change"--




Engineering Digital Transformation


Book Description

This book outlining the latest developments in engineering digital transformation gathers a selection of the best papers presented at the 11th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management (CIO 2017), held in Valencia, Spain, from July 5th to 6th, 2017. The papers discuss topics in the following areas: strategy and entrepreneurship, OR, modelling and simulation, production, logistics and supply chain management, information systems, quality and product management, knowledge and project management, service systems, and education.




Adaptive Modelling, Estimation and Fusion from Data


Book Description

This book brings together for the first time the complete theory of data based neurofuzzy modelling and the linguistic attributes of fuzzy logic in a single cohesive mathematical framework. After introducing the basic theory of data based modelling new concepts including extended additive and multiplicative submodels are developed. All of these algorithms are illustrated with benchmark examples to demonstrate their efficiency. The book aims at researchers and advanced professionals in time series modelling, empirical data modelling, knowledge discovery, data mining and data fusion.




Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets


Book Description

A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.




Integration of Swarm Intelligence and Artificial Neural Network


Book Description

This book provides a new forum for the dissemination of knowledge in both theoretical and applied research on swarm intelligence (SI) and artificial neural network (ANN). It accelerates interaction between the two bodies of knowledge and fosters a unified development in the next generation of computational model for machine learning. To the best of our knowledge, the integration of SI and ANN is the first attempt to integrate various aspects of both the independent research area into a single volume.




Quantitative Forecasting Methods


Book Description




Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM)


Book Description

Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM) focuses on a time series model in Single Source of Error state space form, called “ADAM” (Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model). The book demonstrates a holistic view to forecasting and time series analysis using dynamic models, explaining how a variety of instruments can be used to solve real life problems. At the moment, there is no other tool in R or Python that would be able to model both intermittent and regular demand, would support both ETS and ARIMA, work with explanatory variables, be able to deal with multiple seasonalities (e.g. for hourly demand data) and have a support for automatic selection of orders, components and variables and provide tools for diagnostics and further improvement of the estimated model. ADAM can do all of that in one and the same framework. Given the rising interest in forecasting, ADAM, being able to do all those things, is a useful tool for data scientists, business analysts and machine learning experts who work with time series, as well as any researchers working in the area of dynamic models. Key Features: • It covers basics of forecasting, • It discusses ETS and ARIMA models, • It has chapters on extensions of ETS and ARIMA, including how to use explanatory variables and how to capture multiple frequencies, • It discusses intermittent demand and scale models for ETS, ARIMA and regression, • It covers diagnostics tools for ADAM and how to produce forecasts with it, • It does all of that with examples in R.




Handbook of Research on Predictive Modeling and Optimization Methods in Science and Engineering


Book Description

The disciplines of science and engineering rely heavily on the forecasting of prospective constraints for concepts that have not yet been proven to exist, especially in areas such as artificial intelligence. Obtaining quality solutions to the problems presented becomes increasingly difficult due to the number of steps required to sift through the possible solutions, and the ability to solve such problems relies on the recognition of patterns and the categorization of data into specific sets. Predictive modeling and optimization methods allow unknown events to be categorized based on statistics and classifiers input by researchers. The Handbook of Research on Predictive Modeling and Optimization Methods in Science and Engineering is a critical reference source that provides comprehensive information on the use of optimization techniques and predictive models to solve real-life engineering and science problems. Through discussions on techniques such as robust design optimization, water level prediction, and the prediction of human actions, this publication identifies solutions to developing problems and new solutions for existing problems, making this publication a valuable resource for engineers, researchers, graduate students, and other professionals.




Adaptive Approach to Petroleum Reservoir Simulation


Book Description

This book presents unique features of the adaptive modeling approach based on new machine learning algorithms for petroleum exploration, development, and production. The adaptive approach helps simulation engineers and geoscientists to create adequate geological and hydrodynamic models. This approach is proven to be a real alternative to traditional techniques, such as deterministic modeling. Currently, machine-learning algorithms grow in popularity because they provide consistency, predictiveness, and convenience. The primary purpose of this book is to describe the theoretical state of the adaptive approach and show some examples of its implementation in simulation and forecasting different reservoir processes.




Forecasting


Book Description

"A Wiley/Hamilton publication." Includes bibliographies and index.