Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks


Book Description

How should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock? A trade-off between stabilizing inflation and the welfare relevant output gap arises in a distorted economy once one recognizes: (1) that oil (energy) cannot be easily substituted by other factors in the short-run; (2) that there is no fiscal transfer available to policymakers to neutralize the steady-state distortion due to monopolistic competition; and (3) that increases in oil prices also directly affect consumption by raising the price of fuel, heating oil, and other energy sources. The author derives an interest rate feedback rule that mimics the optimal plan in all relevant dimensions but that depends only on observables, namely core inflation, oil price inflation, and the growth rate of output. Illus.




International Dimensions of Monetary Policy


Book Description

United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.










Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information


Book Description

The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.




Monetary Policy Responses to Crude Oil-Price Shocks


Book Description

Since the establishment of Central Banks, they have been responsible for their national economic stabilization. This paper explores how selected banks have responded to oil price shocks. Firstly, the paper provides a critical analysis of the effects of commodity price shocks using a version of the three equations - the New Keynesian model. Secondly, the paper chronologically investigates past responses to shocks from five central banks, emphasizing similar and extreme responses and their success. Lastly, the paper utilizes the historical analysis to formulate a recommended response for central banks today. The major outcome of this study is the culmination of a recommendation that proactively implementing contractionary monetary policy alongside expansionary fiscal policy, using conventional and unconventional policies is the most effective.




The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation


Book Description

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.




Monetary Policy and the Oil Market


Book Description

While oil price fluctuations in the past can be explained by pure supply factors, this book argues that it is monetary policy that plays a significant role in setting global oil prices. It is a key factor often neglected in much of the earlier literature on the determinants of asset prices, including oil prices. However, this book presents a framework for modeling oil prices while incorporating monetary policy. It also provides a complete theoretical basis of the determinants of crude oil prices and the transmission channels of oil shocks to the economy. Moreover, using several up-to-date surveys and examples from the real world, this book gives insight into the empirical side of energy economics. The empirical studies offer explanations for the impact of monetary policy on crude oil prices in different periods including during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008–2009, the impact of oil price variations on developed and emerging economies, the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Japanese economy incorporating energy prices, and the macroeconomic impacts of oil price movements in trade-linked cases. This must-know information on energy economics is presented in a reader-friendly format without being overloaded with excessive and complicated calculations. enUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>




Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Japanese Economy


Book Description

The evidence of output decreases and price level increases following oil price shocks in the Japanese economy is presented in this paper. These negative effects of oil shocks are better explained by Hamilton's (1996) net oil price increase measure (NOPI) than by other oil measures. The fact that an oil shock has a statistically significant effect on the call money rate and real output and that the call money rate also has a statistically significant effect on real output appears to explain that the effects of oil price shocks on economic activity are partially attributed to contractionary monetary policy responses. The asymmetric effects of positive and negative oil shocks are also found in the Japanese economy and this asymmetry can also be partially explained by monetary policy responses. To assess the relative contribution of oil shocks and endogenous monetary policy responses to the economic downturns, I shut off the responses of the call money rate to oil shocks utilizing the impulse response results from the VAR model. Then, I re-run the VAR with the adjusted call money rate series. The empirical results show that around 30-40% of the negative effects of oil price shocks on the Japanese economy can be accounted for by oil shock induced monetary tightening.