Multiple Exchange Rates, Fiscal Deficits and Inflation Dynamics


Book Description

The paper explores the inflationary implications of exchange rate regime reforms in a small open economy model combining the public finance view of inflation with multiple exchange markets. To account for the experience of many developing countries, the analysis focuses on transitions to multiple official exchange markets. In those countries, multiple exchange rates were often announced as temporary. The paper shows that the dynamic response of inflation to the reform markedly differ whether the announcement is credible or not. The paper also compares the response of inflation under a fixed crawl of nominal official rates and under the presence of policy rules aimed at reducing the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates.










Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime


Book Description

Myanmar's multiple exchange rate system creates various economic distortions. This paper describes the exchange rate practices in Myanmar, develops a model of foreign exchange markets, and presents the efficiency costs imposed by quasi-fiscal operation under the current exchange rate regime. The results of our model-based analyses indicate that the equilibrium exchange rate under the unified market could be at around K 400-500 per U.S. dollar, and using the equilibrium exchange rate (instead of the official exchange rate) as the accounting rate increases trade openness to more than 20 percent from less than 1 percent measured by official statistics. The total efficiency loss caused by the current multiple exchange rate regime is estimated at about 14-17 percent of GDP in 2006/07.







Dual and Multiple Exchange Rate Systems in Developing Countries


Book Description

The parallel exchange rate (whether official or unofficial) and the resulting spread over the official exchange rate are primarily determined by macroeconomic policies. Policymakers should be cautious in adopting dual (or multiple) exchange rate systems, as they provide less insulation for domestic prices than most analysts assume.







Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries


Book Description

In spite of the attention paid exchange rates in recent economic debates on developing countries, relatively few studies have systematically analyzed in detail the various ramifications of exchange rate policy in these countries. In this new volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research, leading economists use rigorous models to tackle various exchange rate issues, while also illuminating policy implications that emerge from their analyses. The volume, divided into four main sections, addresses: the role of exchange rates in stabilization programs and the adjustment process; the importance of exchange rate policy during liberalization reform in developing countries; exchange rate problems relevant and unique to developing countries, illustrated by case studies; and the problems defining, measuring, and identifying determinants of real exchange rates. Authors of individual papers examine the relation between commercial policies and exchange rates, the role of exchange rate policy in stabilization programs, the effectiveness of devaluations as a policy tool, and the interaction between exchange rate terms of trade an capital flow. This research will not only prove crucial to our understanding of the role of exchange rates in developing countries, but will clearly set the standard for future work in the field.