Author : Nico Keilman
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 34,21 MB
Release : 1992-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN :
Based on a review conducted in 1988 of national population forecasting processes applied by statistical agencies in 30 countries.
Author : Nico Keilman
Publisher :
Page : 364 pages
File Size : 18,79 MB
Release : 1992
Category : Population forecasting
ISBN :
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 29,6 MB
Release : 2000-10-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0309069904
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author : E. Tabeau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 36,33 MB
Release : 2006-04-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0306475626
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 30,36 MB
Release : 2019
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789211483161
The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.
Author : Andrei Rogers
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
Page : 108 pages
File Size : 50,57 MB
Release : 1985-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN :
Andrei Rogers, one of the world's leading authorities on population trends, offers a powerful technique for carrying out regional population projections. He gives a clear step-by-step analysis and demonstrations of actual projections of future populations at the regional level. The examples show how to calculate regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries.
Author : Institut National d'etudes Demographiques
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 19,95 MB
Release : 1991-06-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1135843295
First Published in 1991. This book holds the proceedings of the United Nations Institut national d' etudes demographiques Expert Group Meeting, New York, held on the 23-26 August 1988. Topics include the global trends in population growth, adaptation to rapid population growth, aspects and normative problems.
Author : Graziella Caselli
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 2857 pages
File Size : 47,12 MB
Release : 2006-01-03
Category : Reference
ISBN : 012765660X
This four-volume collection of over 140 original chapters covers virtually everything of interest to demographers, sociologists, and others. Over 100 authors present population subjects in ways that provoke thinking and lead to the creation of new perspectives, not just facts and equations to be memorized. The articles follow a theory-methods-applications approach and so offer a kind of "one-stop shop" that is well suited for students and professors who need non-technical summaries, such as political scientists, public affairs specialists, and others. Unlike shorter handbooks, Demography: Analysis and Synthesis offers a long overdue, thorough treatment of the field. Choosing the analytical method that fits the data and the situation requires insights that the authors and editors of Demography: Analysis and Synthesis have explored and developed. This extended examination of demographic tools not only seeks to explain the analytical tools themselves, but also the relationships between general population dynamics and their natural, economic, social, political, and cultural environments. Limiting themselves to human populations only, the authors and editors cover subjects that range from the core building blocks of population change--fertility, mortality, and migration--to the consequences of demographic changes in the biological and health fields, population theories and doctrines, observation systems, and the teaching of demography. The international perspectives brought to these subjects is vital for those who want an unbiased, rounded overview of these complex, multifaceted subjects. Topics to be covered: * Population Dynamics and the Relationship Between Population Growth and Structure * The Determinants of Fertility * The Determinants of Mortality * The Determinants of Migration * Historical and Geographical Determinants of Population * The Effects of Population on Health, Economics, Culture, and the Environment * Population Policies * Data Collection Methods and Teaching about Population Studies * All chapters share a common format * Each chapter features several cross-references to other chapters * Tables, charts, and other non-text features are widespread * Each chapter contains at least 30 bibliographic citations
Author : Katherine Sheram
Publisher :
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 47,30 MB
Release : 1988-01-01
Category : Economic indicators.
ISBN : 9780821311189
This data book presents statistics on countries with populations of more than one million. The statistics relate to economic development and the changes it is bringing about in the world. These statistics are measures of social and economic conditions in developing and industrial countries. Five indicators of economic development are presented, including color-coded maps and charts for clarification. Many charts present changes between 1965 and 1986, the year of the most current data. Section 1, "Life Expectancy," addresses the proportion of deaths by age, the percentage of infants surviving the first year of life, and life expectancy at birth. Section 2, "Primary School Enrollment Rate," covers primary school enrollment rates (1965 and 1985), male/female enrollment rates in developing countries (1965 and 1985), and persistence in primary school (1980-1985). Section 3, "Population Growth Rate," charts growth in developing and industrial countries (1950-1986); population size, average annual growth, and average annual increase in developing countries (1965-1986); and population projections for 1986 and 2000. Section 4, "GNP per Capita," deals with gross national product, population, and GNP per capita; their growth between 1965-1980 and 1980-1986; and the distribution of world population by GNP per capita (1986). Section 5, "Merchandise Exports," analyzes the value of merchandise exports from developing and industrial countries (1960, 1981, 1986), the structure of merchandise exports of developing countries (1965 and 1986), and the flow of money into and out of developing countries (1960s and 1980s). Each section discusses relevant background information and recent developments. Sixteen indicators for 129 countries are presented in a data table. A glossary of terms is included. (GEA)
Author : Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher : Springer
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 26,85 MB
Release : 2019-03-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 3030050750
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
