Nigeria: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement, and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria


Book Description

The economy is recovering from a historic downturn thanks to policy support, rebounding oil prices and international financial assistance. Benefiting from the authorities’ pro-active approach, COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities have been contained. With higher oil prices and the country entering into the 2023 Presidential election cycle, there are risks of delays in much needed fiscal and exchange rate reforms. Macroeconomic and structural policies should build confidence and ensure a robust exit from the crisis.




Guinea: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea


Book Description

While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.




South Africa: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa


Book Description

South Africa’s subpar economic performance over the last decade has weakened its macroeconomic fundamentals and social indicators. In response to formidable COVID-19-related challenges, government expenditure surged, and, amid declining revenue, the budget deficit widened significantly. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority (PA) preserved adequate liquidity conditions and financial-sector stability. The cyclical recovery from the deep contraction has been faster than expected but its strength is unlikely to be sustained. Benign global market conditions have supported asset performance, although term premia are elevated due to fiscal risks. Bank soundness indicators remain solid, but a deepening bank-sovereign nexus raises some concerns.




Nigeria


Book Description

The Nigerian economy is at a critical juncture. A weak pre-crisis economy characterized by falling per capita income, double-digit inflation, significant governance vulnerabilities and limited buffers, is grappling with multiple shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. Real output is projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2020, with a weak recovery likely to keep per capita income stagnant and no higher than the 2010 level in the medium term. Policy adjustment and reforms are urgently needed to navigate this crisis and change the long-running lackluster course.




Transforming Nigeria’s agrifood system: Wealthier, but also healthier


Book Description

Malnutrition, largely attributable to poor diets among both the rich and poor, presents a growing challenge in Nigeria. This brief considers the obstacles to food security and better nutrition, particularly the country’s macroeconomic instability, widespread poverty, and the need for greater investment and policy coherence to support dietary diversity. The authors describe how a policy shift to focus on consumer needs can transform the agrifood system to deliver healthier and more affordable diets for all Nigerians, as well as better and more secure rural livelihoods.




Côte D’Ivoire: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Selected Issues; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte D’Ivoire


Book Description

Côte d’Ivoire has shown strong resilience to the pandemic, owing to the authorities’ swift policy reaction and to a decade of sound macroeconomic policies, as well as the support of the international community including the IMF.




The Bahamas: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas


Book Description

The Bahamas is experiencing a tourism-led rebound. Real GDP growth in 2021 was close to 14 percent, as stayover tourist arrivals doubled relative to 2020. The economy is projected to expand by 8 percent in 2022. Nonetheless, it will likely take until 2024 to return to the 2019 level of GDP and the pandemic has given rise to significant human and social costs. The country’s medium-term growth challenges are likely worse than before, and public finances are in a more precarious state. Risks are skewed downwards given a difficult near-term financing situation, rising inflationary—and potentially BOP—pressures because of the war in Ukraine, an ongoing threat from the evolving pandemic, and the country’s high vulnerability to natural disasters.




Grenada: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada


Book Description

Grenada’s economy was hit hard by the pandemic, with a decline in real output of 14 percent in 2020 from both a collapse of tourism-related activities and the suspension of in-person classes at Saint George’s University (SGU). Growth in 2021 is estimated to have partly recovered to 5.6 percent, driven by construction and agriculture. The authorities’ policy response helped mitigate the pandemic’s impact through containment measures, increased health and social spending, and an expanded public investment program (including to build resilience to natural disasters). Central government debt rose to 70 percent of GDP in 2021 (from 59 percent in 2019) and the external position has worsened. The financial sector has so far weathered the crisis well.




Banking Reforms in Africa


Book Description

This book comprehensively explores the intricate relationship between banking reforms, economic well-being, and poverty reduction across the African continent. Delving into the historical roots of banking reforms, it examines the resilience of banking sectors in key African countries like South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, MENA, and beyond. The findings suggest that much attention should be paid to the design of banking systems and how banks are regulated. This focus on banks differs from many discussions on the topic, which tend to be more concerned with other policy areas such as economic policy, international trade policy, and aid. The book’s extensive and contemporary overview of banking reforms enables a comparative analysis of regulatory frameworks, supervision practices, and government interventions. It evaluates theoretical frameworks linking banking reforms to bank stability and resilience, drawing on financial intermediation, resource allocation, systemic risk, and financial development concepts. It empirically tests the causal relationships between the Basel II/III capital reforms, bank sector resilience, economic growth, and poverty reduction and identifies and analyses the channels and mechanisms through which banking reforms affect economic welfare and poverty reduction in Africa, such as credit availability, financial efficiency, financial innovation, and financial access. The book offers an insightful exploration into a brighter economic future on the African continent. The findings presented herein offer valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners striving to enhance financial stability, foster economic growth, and alleviate poverty in Africa.




IMF Engagement on Social Safety Net Issues in Surveillance and Program Work


Book Description

The International Monetary Fund’s engagement on social safety net (SSN) issues is likely to expand as member countries respond to growing challenges in the economic and fiscal landscape. SSNs play a crucial role in protecting households from poverty, promoting inclusive growth, and maintaining social stability. This technical note discusses (1) the different channels through which SSN spending may become macro-critical, (2) how to assess the importance of these channels, and (3) the types of policy responses that are appropriate and the trade-offs involved in choosing among them. To facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of SSN spending, the paper also examines the complementary role of labor market programs (for example, unemployment benefits and active labor market programs). The paper emphasizes the importance of early engagement and coordination with development partners with expertise on social safety nets and with different stakeholders when formulating policy advice.