No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries Or at All Times


Book Description

This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.




No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries Or at All Times


Book Description

This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.




Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes


Book Description

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.




No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries Or at All Times


Book Description

This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.




Handbook of Exchange Rates


Book Description

Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.




One Market, One Money


Book Description

The European Community is negotiating a new treaty to establish the constitutional foundations of an economic and monetary union in the course of the 1990s. This study provides the only comprehensive guide to the economic implications of economic and monetary union. The work of an economist inside the Commission of the European Community, it reflects the considerations influencing the design of the union. The study creates a unique bridge between the insights of modern economic analysis and the work of the policy makers preparing for economic and monetary union.




Full Dollarization


Book Description

Analyzes the costs and benefits of full dollarization, or the adoption by one country of another country's currency. Potential advantages include lower borrowing costs and deeper integration into world markets. But countries lose the ability to devalue, and become dependent on the U.S. Compares with currency board option.




The Single Global Currency - Common Cents for the World


Book Description

This 2014 Edition of THE SINGLE GLOBAL CURRENCY - COMMON CENTS FOR THE WORLD is the fifth book of this name, and it updates the text of the original 2006 edition. The 2007, 2008 and 2009 editions included the original edition together with an annual update appendix. Future editions are planned in five year increments for 2019 and 2024, the latter date being the 80th anniversary of the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference. The book is for all readers around the world, as every human being in our increasingly globalized world has an interest in achieving the goal of a Single Global Currency. What the people of the world want and deserve is stable money, so that the money they earn, save and invest today will be worth almost the same tomorrow. The Single Global Currency will provide that stability. It is the common cents/sense currency for our increasingly globalized world. The current multicurrency global monetary system is volatile and extremely risky as $5.3 trillion worth of currencies are traded every trading day on the global foreign exchange markets. Currencies crises are a continuing threat. Avoiding the effects and risks of currency fluctuations and rapid flows of cross-currency capital were the primary goals of the International Monetary Fund at its 1945 creation, and the Single Global Currency will solve both problems. The Single Global Currency will be managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union. Since 1999, the primary model for this "3-G" system has been the euro which is managed by the European Central Bank within the European Monetary Union. Beginning with 12 member countries, the eurozone now has 18 members and continues to grow toward its full potential of all the members of the growing European Union, which now number 28. Creation of a Single Global Currency is not a new idea or goal, but is now feasible thanks to automation and the increasing interdependence of the world's peoples. The potential benefits of a Single Global Currency are staggering: - Worldwide asset values will increase by about $10 trillion. - Worldwide GDP will increase by $trillions. - Global trade will increase by $trillions. - Annual FX trading transaction costs of $300 billion will be avoided. - Global currency/payments imbalances will be eliminated. - Currency crises will be eliminated. - Currency speculation will be eliminated. - The need for unproductive foreign exchange reserves will be eliminated. Currently, the 193 members of the United Nations use 140 currencies for their international and domestic transactions. The 50+ members without their own national currencies are using the currencies of monetary unions of which they are members, or they are using ("izing") the currencies of other countries or monetary unions. As existing monetary unions in Europe, the Caribbean and Africa are expanded, and as new monetary unions are created in Africa, the Americas, Asia and the Mid-East, the number of currencies will continue to decline. At some "tipping point," perhaps after a merger of large currencies, the largest monetary union currency will likely be designated as the world's Single Global Currency. This process can be accelerated when individuals, nations and global institutions openly declare their support for a Single Global Currency and they initiate the necessary steps toward that goal. Such steps will include a global internet-based naming process for the new currency and a timeline for implementation. There is little question that the world is moving toward a Single Global Currency. The remaining question is When? The global challenge will be to achieve the Single Global Currency with a smooth transition from the existing multicurrency system. It is hoped that this book, and the work of the Single Global Currency Association (www.singleglobalcurrency.org) will help move the world in that direction.




The European Union: A Very Short Introduction


Book Description

John Pinder and Simon Usherwood explain the EU in plain readable English. They show how and why it has developed, how the institutions work, and what it does - from the single market to the euro, and from agriculture to the environment.




Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies


Book Description

Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.