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Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia’s Local Currency Bond Market

Author : Mr.David A. Grigorian

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 19 pages

File Size : 47,1 MB

Release : 2019-01-25

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484396553

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Book Description

Malaysia’s local currency debt market is one of the most liquid public debt markets in the world. In recent years, the growing share of nonresident holders of debt has been a source of concern for policymakers as a reason behind exchange rate volatility. The paper provides an overview of the recent developments in the conventional debt market. It builds an empirical two-stage model to estimate the main drivers of debt capital flows to Malaysia. Finally, it uses a GARCH model to test the hypothesis that nonresident flows are behind the observed exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the public debt market in Malaysia responds adequately to both pull and push factors and find no firm evidence that nonresident flows cause volatility in the onshore foreign exchange market.



Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets

Author : Cheikh A. Gueye

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 39 pages

File Size : 22,85 MB

Release : 2014-03-26

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1616358440

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Book Description

During the past three years the frontier markets of sub-Saharan Africa have received growing amounts of portfolio capital flows, with heightened interest from foreign investors. Compared with foreign direct investment, portfolio capital flows tend to be more volatile, and thus pose challenges for sub-Saharan African frontier markets. This study examines the evolution of capital flows since 2010 and discusses the policies these countries have designed to reduce risks from the inherent volatility of these flows.



Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

Author : Mahmood Pradhan

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 45 pages

File Size : 21,42 MB

Release : 2011-04-20

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1463935129

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Book Description

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.



Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Author : Mr.R. G Gelos

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 44 pages

File Size : 50,71 MB

Release : 2019-12-20

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1513522906

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Book Description

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.



Managing Capital Flows

Author : Masahiro Kawai

Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing

Page : 465 pages

File Size : 17,60 MB

Release : 2010-01-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 184980687X

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Book Description

Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.



Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy

Author : International Monetary Fund

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 45 pages

File Size : 20,39 MB

Release : 2014-06-11

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1498342620

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Book Description

This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries



Global Waves of Debt

Author : M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher : World Bank Publications

Page : 403 pages

File Size : 21,82 MB

Release : 2021-03-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1464815453

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Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.



Capital Flows - Review of Experience with the Institutional View

Author : International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 61 pages

File Size : 49,51 MB

Release : 2016-07-11

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1498345050

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Book Description

Capital flows are an important aspect of the international monetary system. They provide significant benefits, both direct and indirect. At the same time, they also carry risks, and a key challenge for countries is how to harness the benefits while managing the risks. The institutional view on the liberalization and management of capital flows provides the Fund with a basis for consistent advice on policies related to capital flows. This paper reviews countries’ experiences with handling capital flows in the period since the adoption of the IMF’s institutional view in 2012. Based on the experience, it identifies a few areas in which the view would benefit from further clarification or elaboration.



Surges

Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 43 pages

File Size : 41,95 MB

Release : 2012-01-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1463942303

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Book Description

This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabilities (reflecting the investment decisions of foreigners), and those caused by changes in its assets (reflecting the decisions of residents). Global factors-including US interest rates and risk aversion¡-are key to determining whether a surge will occur, but domestic factors such as the country's external financing needs (as implied by an intertemporal optimizing model of the current account) and structural characteristics also matter, which explains why not all EMEs experience surges. Conditional on a surge occurring, moreover, the magnitude of the capital inflow depends largely on domestic factors including the country's external financing needs, and the exchange rate regime. Finally, while similar factors explain asset- and liability-driven surges, the latter are more sensitive to global factors and contagion.



Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets

Author : Ms. Mitali Das

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 54 pages

File Size : 36,56 MB

Release : 2022-01-07

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1616358343

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Book Description

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.