Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market


Book Description

"This paper investigates whether official Japanese intervention in the JPY/USD exchange rate over the January 1999 to March 2004 time period is effective. By integrating the official intervention data with a comprehensive set of newswire reports capturing days on which there is a rumor or speculation of intervention, the paper also attempts to shed some light on through which of the two channels, the signaling channel in a broad sense or the portfolio balance channel, effective Japanese intervention works. The results suggest that Japanese intervention is effective during the first 5 years of the sample and ineffective during the last 3 months of the sample, thereby providing an ex-post rationale for why Japan intervened as well as for why the interventions stopped. Moreover, the results suggest that when Japanese intervention is effective, it works through a portfolio-balance channel. The results do not rule out that effective intervention also works through signaling."--Author's abstract.




The Japanese Yen as an International Currency


Book Description

The role of the Japanese yen as an international currency is assessed. It is found that the determinants of international-currency use imply some increase for the yen’s use in international finance; however, the implications for the yen’s use in international trade are mixed. It is also shown that, despite Japan’s emergence as the world’s largest net creditor nation, Japan’s capital outflows have not significantly facilitated the yen’s internationalization. Data are presented showing that, although the yen’s use as an international currency has increased, it is still rather modest. Wider use of the yen as a regional currency in Asia has occurred, though a “yen-zone” does not appear to be emerging.




Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations


Book Description

The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.




Handbook of Exchange Rates


Book Description

Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.




Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR


Book Description

This paper provides the basis for the quinquennial review of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). The review considers the composition, size, and weighting of the SDR currency basket and the financial instruments used to determine the SDR interest rate. The analysis in this paper is guided by the informal discussion of Executive Directors in July on initial considerations for the review. In light of Directors’ preference, the two currency selection criteria for SDR inclusion are maintained. Since China continues to meet the export criterion, a key focus of this paper is on assessing whether the renminbi (RMB) could be determined to be a freely usable currency, which is the second criterion. The paper documents the rising international use and trading of the RMB since the 2010 SDR valuation review. A range of indicators suggests that use of the RMB in international transactions has risen substantially, albeit from a low base. The paper also finds that the RMB has become far more actively traded in foreign exchange markets, with sufficient depth to support operations of the size Fund members might undertake without an appreciable change in the exchange rate. Full Text also available in Chinese.







Working Paper Series


Book Description







China's Exchange Rate Regime


Book Description

The imbalance between China’s currency, the RMB, and those of other countries is widely regarded as a major problem for the world economy. There was a reform of China’s exchange rate mechanism in 2005, following which the RMB appreciated 17% against the US dollar, but many people argue that further reform is still needed. This book reports on a major research project undertaken following the 2005 reform to assess the impact on China’s economy. It considers the impact in a number of areas of the economy, including export-oriented companies, the banking industry, international trade, international capital flows, and China’s macroeconomic policy. It concludes that the policies pursued so far have been correct, and that further reform, both to the exchange rate, and to the system overall, would be desirable, but that any reform should be gradual and incremental, preserving economic stability, and integrating changes with reform in other parts of the economy.




Practical Fruits of Econophysics


Book Description

Some economic phenomena are predictable and controllable, and some are impos sible to foresee. Existing economic theories do not provide satisfactory answers as to what degree economic phenomena can be predicted and controlled, and in what situations. Against this background, people working on the financial front lines in real life have to rely on empirical rules based on experiments that often lack a solid foundation. "Econophysics" is a new science that analyzes economic phenomena empirically from a physical point of view, and it is being studied mainly to offer scientific, objective and significant answers to such problems. This book is the proceedings of the third Nikkei symposium on ''Practical Fruits of Econophysics," held in Tokyo, November 9-11, 2004. In the first symposium held in 2000, empirical rules were established by analyzing high-frequency finan cial data, and various kinds of theoretical approaches were confimied. In the second symposium, in 2002, the predictability of imperfections and of economic fluctua tions was discussed in detail, and methods for applying such studies were reported. The third symposium gave an overview of practical developments that can immedi ately be applied to the financial sector, or at least provide hints as to how to use the methodology.