Oil Price Fluctuations and Their Impact on BRIC Countries


Book Description

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 2, University of Graz (Finanzwirtschaft), course: Internationale Finanzmarkte, language: English, abstract: The last decade was marked by the global financial crisis, the biggest recession since World War II, which led to turmoil on financial markets, bankruptcies of investment banks and slow growth in nearly all developed countries. With only an average annual growth rate of 1.5% since 2010 the biggest developed economies recovered only moderately from the crisis. Back in 2001 Jim O'Neill had already realized it was time to focus on new countries. In his opinion the four largest fast growing emerging economies were Brazil, Russia, China and India. Thus he created the acronym BRIC which symbolizes a power shift from developed countries to developing ones. In 2010, the year after the crisis their annual growth rate was about 8.2% compared to the weak 2.7% of developed countries. This goes along with forecasts that suggested a rise in capital, automotive and oil market leading each of the BRICs to overtake the major developed countries. Among these the most important market seems to be the oil market and more specifically the crude oil market. Crude oil has a share of 34% of the world's primary energy consumption and is likely to remain the same for many more decades. BRIC countries are large oil consumers and since 2011 have surpassed the United States (US) in oil consumption. Their strong representation in the crude oil market justifies a further analysis on each country's status. According to Hamilton (2009) the crude oil price development was strongly correlated to the financial meltdown. Thus, understanding the impact of oil price fluctuations can create a path towards a sustainable future growth The target of this paper is to examine O'Neill's growing theory by investigating the crude oil market for Brazil, Russia, India and China. Furthermore analysing the effect of oil price fluctuat"




Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Inflation: the Case of BRICS Countries


Book Description

Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Inflation: The Case of BRICS Countries The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on inflation rates in BRICS countries using annual panel data for 20 years from 1997 to 2017. The study is based on a two-process analysis where the Structural VAR model is used in the first stage to decompose the oil price shocks. In the second stage, Dynamic Panel Model based on Arellano-Bond Estimator is applied to further examine how these oil price shocks affect inflation, controlling for total factor productivity, interest rates and gross domestic product growth. The results suggest that oil price changes do not have significant impact on inflation at low frequency data. However, individual country comparison reveals that oil supply and oil specific demand shocks have significant positive impact on Russia but not in any other of the remaining four countries- Brazil, China, India, and South Africa




The impact of oil price dynamics on global economy


Book Description

Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Trade and Distribution, grade: 1,7, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, language: English, abstract: After oil was discovered in the late 19th century, oil prices were primarily determined first by the major petroleum companies and then by the oil-exporting nations, who joined forces in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the 1960s, the market-oriented pricing system was adopted and since then oil prices are primarily formed by supply and demand. Oil prices are characterized by permanent price fluctuations. Especially rapid price rises and longer-term fluctuations are at the focus of many scientific work. Because oil is an indispensable resource for the global economy, the question arises after the economic impacts of such price developments. While oil- exporting countries benefit from strong price rises, oil- importing countries, with emerging countries leading the way, are negatively affected. The interplay of these opposite effects and the global economic situation are crucial for the net effect on global economy.




The Impacts of Oil Price Fluctuations on Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Activity


Book Description

This thesis focuses on the relationships between oil prices fluctuations and trade-related variables. There are 6 chapters. The introductory chapter sets the scene while chapter 2 discusses the theory for economics of non-renewable resources. This is followed by three substantive chapters which focus on three different aspects of the thesis: the oil price-RCA relationship, the oil price-exchange rate relationship and the oil price-output growth relationship. Chapter 6 concludes the thesis. Chapter 3 quantifies the effects of oil price fluctuations on revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 36 manufacturing commodities of 167 countries from 1990 to 2005. Using Zellner's (1962) seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) model, the chapter finds that oil price fluctuations negatively affect middle-income economies and net oil-exporting countries' RCA more than high-income economies and net oil-importing countries. Chapter 4 explores the long run effects of real oil price and real interest rate differential on real exchange rate for a monthly panel of 8 countries from 1980 to 2008. Using the mean group estimator, the chapter finds no statistically significant relationship between real oil price and real exchange rate for oil-importing and oil- exporting countries. However, when using the pooled mean group estimator, the chapter finds a positive and statistically significant impact of real oil price on real exchange rate for five net oil importing countries, implying that increase in oil price leads to real exchange rate depreciation . . Chapter 5 investigates the asymmetric effects of oil pnce shocks on real economic activities in Malaysia from 1991 to 2007. Using an unrestricted Vector Auto Regressive (V AR) method, mixed results are obtained. Evidence of a symmetric relationship between oil prices and economic activities is obtained from the impulse response function (IRFs). However, the variance decomposition analyses VAR suggest that oil prices have different impacts on economic activities when they increase than when they fall.




Crude Oil Price Fluctuations


Book Description

Since the 1970s, the world has experienced several oil price changes with cruel impact on global macroeconomic factors. The first oil price shocks in 1973 provoked the attention of many and the ambiguous relation between oil prices and economic activity encouraged several people to study its trends, causes and short term and long term consequences. Are oil prices linked to the law of the market, to political events, to speculation or future expectations? --Everybody reached the conclusion that oil price fluctuations stimulated inflation and generated recessions but each one got it differently. --In this thesis, we will test the relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and several macroeconomic factors from 1970 to 2009. In addition, an estimation of the impact of oil price shocks on the world economy is done. Chapter 1 is a general introduction about the energy industry particularly oil, and a brief description about the different chapters. Chapter 2 described the major events that happened from the 1970s until 2010 and that affected oil prices hence the macroeconomic performance i.e. Yom Kippur war, Iranian Revolution, Gulf war, Asian Financial Crisis, the sequence of Hurricanes, 2008 Great Recession. Chapter 3 is a discussion of previous studies related to this subject. It helps us identify better the nature of the relation between oil and macroeconomic factors from different point of views. In chapter 4, through the Granger causality test applied on 15 countries, we will analyze how crude oil price fluctuations affect them individually then to analyze the effect of oil price shocks on the global economy, an estimation of these shocks on the world economy is done. It focuses on two oil shocks: The Oil price shocks of 1973 and1985.




Impact of Oil Prices Fluctuations on Economies in the Age of Globalization


Book Description

Early in the past century, oil has powered economic growth in industrialized economies. Towards the end of the 20th century, as emerging and underdeveloped economies relied more on oil powered means for their everyday need, their appetite for oil has considerably increased and this put an upward pressure on the global oil demand. As supply now struggles to match demand, oil prices are more and more driven by macroeconomics fundamentals. The disparity between supply and demand has had different effects on economies depending, if it is a net oil-exporting or net oil-importing one. This paper will attempt to quantify the impact of oil price on growth for importing or exporting countries stratified by type (advanced, emerging, and developing economies). Using linear regression analysis, we will test if there is a meaningful relationship between changes in GDP and changes in oil prices.




Policy Externalities And International Trade Agreements


Book Description

The book Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements is a selection of published articles examining how policy externalities motivate and can be addressed by international trading institutions. The studies provide groundbreaking evidence of the role of international market power and policy uncertainty as motives for trade agreements and on the potential clash between preferential trade liberalization (e.g. European Union, NAFTA) and multilateral agreements (WTO). The studies presented in this book not only identify and estimate how different policies interact with each other and across agreements, but also examine how international trading institutions can be used to limit redistribution towards special interest groups and enforce better cooperation across issues, such as labor and the environment, and between developing and developed countries.




New Growth Drivers for Low-Income Countries - The Role of the BRICs


Book Description

The emergence of BRICs—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—is reshaping low-income countries’ (LICs) international economic relations. While industrial countries remain LICs’ dominant development partners, LIC-BRIC ties have increased so rapidly over the past decade that BRICs have become new growth drivers for LICs. Trade with BRICs is already close to half of the value of combined trade with the European Union and the United States, and larger than with other emerging market economies. BRIC FDI and development financing are making a significant impact in some key areas despite their relatively small volumes compared with those from advanced countries. Beyond the increased flows of goods and capital, BRICs have brought new dynamics in LICs’ economic relations with the rest of the world, complementing as well as competing with OECD partners. Nevertheless, while potential benefits from the LIC-BRIC ties are enormous, there are challenges and risks in realizing such benefits.




Finance & Development, September 2014


Book Description

This chapter discusses various past and future aspects of the global economy. There has been a huge transformation of the global economy in the last several years. Articles on the future of energy in the global economy by Jeffrey Ball and on measuring inequality by Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Berg are also illustrated. Since the 2008 global crisis, global economists must change the way they look at the world.




Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage


Book Description

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the latter to the former. We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to investigate the extent of business cycle transmission from BRICs to LICs through both direct (FDI, trade, productivity, exchange rates) and indirect (global commodity prices, demand, and interest rates) channels. The estimation results show that there are significant direct spillovers while indirect spillovers also matters in many cases. Based on these results, we show that growing LIC-BRIC ties have significantly helped alleviate the adverse impact of the recent global financial crisis on LIC economies.