On Non-Existence of a One Factor Interest Rate Model for Volatility Averaged Generalized Fong-Vasicek Term Structures


Book Description

The purpose of this paper is to study the generalized Fong - Vasicek two-factor interest rate model with stochastic volatility. In this model the dispersion of the stochastic short rate (square of volatility) is assumed to be stochastic as well and it follows a non-negative process with volatility proportional to the square root of dispersion. The drift of the stochastic process for the dispersion is assumed to be in a rather general form including, in particular, linear function having one root (yielding the original Fong - Vasicek model or a cubic like function having three roots (yielding a generalized Fong - Vasicek model for description of the volatility clustering). We consider averaged bond prices with respect to the limiting distribution of stochastic dispersion. The averaged bond prices depend on time and current level of the short rate like it is the case in many popular one-factor interest rate model including in particular the Vasicek and Cox - Ingersoll-Ross model. However, as a main result of this paper we show that there is no such one-factor model yielding the same bond prices as the averaged values described above.




Vasicek and Beyond


Book Description




On a General Class of One-Factor Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates


Book Description

We propose a general one-factor model for the term structure of interest rates which is based upon a model for the short rate. The dynamics of the short rate is described by an appropriate function of a time changed Wiener process. The model allows for perfect fitting of given term structure of interest rates and volatilities, as well as for mean reversion. Moreover, every type of distribution of the short rate can be achieved, in particular, the distribution can be concentrated on an interval. The model includes several popular models such as the generalized Vasicek (or Hull- White) model, the Black-Derman-Toy, Black-Karasinski model, and others. There is a unified numerical approach to the general model based on a simple lattice approximation which, in particular, can be chosen as a binomial or N-nomial lattice with branching probabilities 1/N.




Forecasting the Interest-Rate Term Structure


Book Description

In this paper, we consider the issue of forecasting the interest-rate term structure and we present a solution. We apply the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the Fong amp; Vasicek model to deal with the issue of computing the hidden stochastic volatility. We also introduce Bollinger bands as a variance reduction technique used to improve the Monte Carlo simulation performance. Our results suggest that the forecasting technique using the unobservable component approach (EFK) to obtain values of the stochastic volatility is superior to another stochastic volatility model such as GARCH (1,1). In addition, the performance is improved when we introduce Bollinger bands.













A Multifactor, Nonlinear, Continuous-Time Model of Interest Rate Volatility


Book Description

This paper presents a general, nonlinear version of existing multifactor models, such as Longstaff and Schwartz (1992). The novel aspect of our approach is that rather than choosing the model parameterization out of quot;thin airquot;, our processes are generated from the data using approximation methods for multifactor continuous-time Markov processes. In applying this technique to the short- and long-end of the term structure for a general two-factor diffusion process for interest rates, a major finding is that the volatility of interest rates is increasing in the level of interest rates only for sharply upward sloping term structures. In fact, the slope of the term structure plays a larger role in determining the magnitude of the diffusion coefficient. As an application, we analyze the model's implications for the term structure of term premiums.




A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives


Book Description

We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates. It features unspanned stochastic volatility factors, correlation between innovations to forward rates and their volatilities, quasi-analytical prices of zero-coupon bond options, and dynamics of the forward rate curve, under both the actual and risk-neutral measure, in terms of a finitedimensional affine state vector. The model has a very good fit to an extensive panel data set of interest rates, swaptions and caps. In particular, the model matches the implied cap skews and the dynamics of implied volatilities.




A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing and Forecasting of Interest Rate Derivatives


Book Description

We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates. It features correlations between innovations to forward rates and volatilities, quasi-analytical prices of zero-coupon bond options and dynamics of the forward rate curve, under both the actual and risk-neutral measure, in terms of a finite-dimensional affine state vector. The model has a very good fit to an extensive panel data set of interest rates, swaptions and caps. In particular, the model matches the implied cap skews and the dynamics of implied volatilities. The model also performs well in forecasting interest rates and derivatives.