Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting


Book Description

A comprehensive overview of the science involved in automated prediction of sea ice, for sea ice analysts, researchers, and professionals.




Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting


Book Description

This book provides an advanced introduction to the science behind automated prediction systems, focusing on sea ice analysis and forecasting. Starting from basic principles, fundamental concepts in sea ice physics, remote sensing, numerical methods, and statistics are explained at an accessible level. Existing operational automated prediction systems are described and their impacts on information providers and end clients are discussed. The book also provides insight into the likely future development of sea ice services and how they will evolve from mainly manual processes to increasing automation, with a consequent increase in the diversity and information content of new ice products. With contributions from world-leading experts in the fields of sea ice remote sensing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and verification and operational prediction, this comprehensive reference is ideal for students, sea ice analysts, and researchers, as well as decision-makers and professionals working in the ice service industry.




Sea Ice in the Arctic


Book Description

This book provides in-depth information about the sea ice in the Arctic at scales from paleoenvironmental variability to more contemporary changes during the past and present centuries. The book is based on several decades of research related to sea ice in the Arctic and its variability, sea ice process studies as well as implications of the sea ice variability on human activities. The chapters provide an extensive overview of the research results related to sea ice in the Arctic at paleo-scales to more resent scales of variations as well as projections for changes during the 21st century. The authors have pioneered the satellite remote sensing monitoring of sea ice and used other monitoring data in order to study, monitor and model sea ice and its processes.




Next Generation Earth System Prediction


Book Description

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.




Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction


Book Description

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages




Drift, Deformation, and Fracture of Sea Ice


Book Description

Sea ice is a major component of polar environments, especially in the Arctic where it covers the entire Arctic Ocean throughout most of the year. However, in the context of climate change, the Arctic sea ice cover has been declining significantly over the last decades, either in terms of its concentration or thickness. The sea ice cover evolution and climate change are strongly coupled through the albedo positive feedback, thus possibly explaining the Arctic amplification of climate warming. In addition to thermodynamics, sea ice kinematics (drift, deformation) appears as an essential factor in the evolution of the ice cover through a reduction of the average ice age (and consequently of the cover's thickness), or ice export out of the Arctic. This is a first motivation for a better understanding of the kinematical and mechanical processes of sea ice. A more upstream, theoretical motivation is a better understanding of the brittle deformation of geophysical objects across a wide range of scales. Indeed, owing to its very strong kinematics, compared e.g. to the Earth’s crust, an unrivaled kinematical data set is available for sea ice from in situ (e.g. drifting buoys) or satellite observations. Here, we review the recent advances in the understanding of sea ice drift, deformation and fracturing obtained from these data. We focus particularly on the scaling properties in time and scale that characterize these processes, and we emphasize the analogies that can be drawn from the deformation of the Earth’s crust. These scaling properties, which are the signature of long-range elastic interactions within the cover, constrain future developments in the modeling of sea ice mechanics. We also show that kinematical and rheological variables such as average velocity, average strain-rate or strength have significantly changed over the last decades, accompanying and actually accelerating the Arctic sea ice decline.




Data Assimilation


Book Description

This book reviews popular data-assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods, ensemble filters and smoothers. The author shows how different methods can be derived from a common theoretical basis, as well as how they differ or are related to each other, and which properties characterize them, using several examples. Readers will appreciate the included introductory material and detailed derivations in the text, and a supplemental web site.







Long-Range Ice Forecasting System (LRIFS) Applied for the Beaufort Sea


Book Description

Applied research conducted from 1984 to 1990 on behalf of the Environmental Studies Research Funds (ESRF) and Ice Centre Environment Canada (ICEC) has resulted in the implementation of an operational Long Range Ice (sea ice and iceberg severity) Forecasting System (LRIFS) at Ice Centre, Ottawa. The LRIFS system employs statistical models based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of up to 40 years of regional surface and upper air weather data to predict abundance of sea ice and icebergs, in some locations up to six months prior to occurence. The system also makes provision of the use of ice anomaly data to predict future ice conditions. In the present work, this system has been generalized from its previous east coast base, and is now configured for use anywhere in the northern hemisphere. Major enhancements has been introduced to automate the identification of potentially viable meteorological predictors, and tests have been added to eliminate predictors showing artificial skill.




Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. II)


Book Description

This book contains the most recent progress in data assimilation in meteorology, oceanography and hydrology including land surface. It spans both theoretical and applicative aspects with various methodologies such as variational, Kalman filter, ensemble, Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence methods. Besides data assimilation, other important topics are also covered including targeting observation, sensitivity analysis, and parameter estimation. The book will be useful to individual researchers as well as graduate students for a reference in the field of data assimilation.