Book Description

Opportunity is the hidden factor that explains why so many solutions proposed for today’s problems will fall far wide off the mark. Conventional and expensive proposals to solve many of the critical issues of our times, including ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, COMMODITIZATION, THE DEMOGRAPHIC INVERSION (POPULATION), and CONFLICT will almost certainly go far astray if the element of OPPORTUNITY is disregarded. Conventional forecasts still take no account of what we know about opportunity, uncertainty, and risk. Changing circumstances inevitably create unforeseen opportunities. The error is compounded when policies lock societies into large commitments that fail to respect intrinsic uncertainty or unseen feedback effects. The author is an expert in the use of options theory and decision analysis in technology investment. These analytical tools are applied to the large issues of our times in this book: the desire for energy independence, halting climate change, the commoditization of industry, graying societies, and the resolution of human conflict. While disastrous policy prescriptions are hardly new to history, modern societies are doing far too little to use what they now know. Recognition of these basic errors will create competitive advantage for individual investors, businesses, and nations smart enough to avoid the pitfalls of the accepted wisdom. Dr. Boer’s Principles of Opportunity: 1. Keep the investment at risk low while the uncertainties are still high 2. The information needed to evaluate risk is the top priority 3. Things change–maintain your options and postpone large commitments 4. Break the investment process into a series of stages–each with an exit option 5. When risk is reasonable, large investments can be considered and options can be converted to assets.