Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India


Book Description

The paper uses a multi-region DSGE model to quantify the macroeconomic implications of three adjustment scenarios for India: growth-friendly, social-friendly, and a benchmark case centered on bringing down unproductive spending and strengthening the consumption tax. Simulations indicate that fiscal consolidation yields considerable long-term benefits but also entails output costs in the near term. The scenarios in which deficit reduction is accompanied by greater investment and social spending lead to better results than the benchmark case. The consolidation package alone is not enough to maximize net gains. Other factors, such as the pace and the credibility of consolidation, the concomitant implementation of structural reforms, and global economic conditions, play a critical role in the success of fiscal consolidation.




From Stimulus to Consolidation


Book Description

This paper identifies policy tools that could be used for fiscal consolidation in advanced and emerging economies in the years ahead. The consolidation strategy, particularly in advanced countries, should aim to stabilize age-related spending in relation to GDP, reduce non-age-related expenditure ratios, and increase revenues. Bold reforms are needed to offset projected increases in age-related spending, particularly health care. On the revenue side, measures could include improving tax compliance, for example through better international cooperation, as well as increasing the yield from VAT by eliminating exemptions and reduced rates, further developing property taxes, and increasing excise rates within the range of rates already applicable in comparable countries.




Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India


Book Description

The paper uses a multi-region DSGE model to quantify the macroeconomic implications of three adjustment scenarios for India: growth-friendly, social-friendly, and a benchmark case centered on bringing down unproductive spending and strengthening the consumption tax. Simulations indicate that fiscal consolidation yields considerable long-term benefits but also entails output costs in the near term. The scenarios in which deficit reduction is accompanied by greater investment and social spending lead to better results than the benchmark case. The consolidation package alone is not enough to maximize net gains. Other factors, such as the pace and the credibility of consolidation, the concomitant implementation of structural reforms, and global economic conditions, play a critical role in the success of fiscal consolidation.




Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth


Book Description

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.




Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality


Book Description

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Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management


Book Description

Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.




Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India


Book Description

The paper uses a multi-region DSGE model to quantify the macroeconomic implications of three adjustment scenarios for India: growth-friendly, social-friendly, and a benchmark case centered on bringing down unproductive spending and strengthening the consumption tax.Simulations indicate that fiscal consolidation yields considerable long-term benefits but also entails output costs in the near term. The scenarios in which deficit reduction is accompanied by greater investment and social spending lead to better results than the benchmark case. The consolidation package alone is not enough to maximize net gains. Other factors, such as the pace and the credibility of consolidation, the concomitant implementation of structural reforms, and global economic conditions, play a critical role in the success of fiscal consolidation.




India


Book Description

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that India’s growth has slowed markedly, reflecting global developments and domestic supply constraints, while inflation remains stubbornly high. Led by falling infrastructure and corporate investment, the slowdown has generalized to other sectors of the economy. The financial positions of banks and corporate have deteriorated. The principal risk facing India is the inward spillover from global financial market volatility. Growth is projected at 4.6 percent for fiscal year 2013/14, and should pick up to 5.4 percent in 2014/15 (at factor cost).




The Quest for the Holy Grail


Book Description

Achieving fiscal consolidation without undermining growth and poverty-reduction efforts is a key policy challenge in many countries. Using India as an illustration, this paper shows how a mix of well-designed taxation and spending policies can help address these challenges. On the tax side, the analysis focuses on increasing consumption taxes on goods with negative consumption externalities. On the spending side, some of the additional revenues from the tax reform are allocated to scaling up key social transfer programs. Substantial additional gains are possible if the increased social transfers can be accompanied by improved targeting.




India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance


Book Description

The macroeconomic policy response in India after the North Atlantic financial crisis (NAFC) was rapid. The overshooting of the stimulus and its gradual withdrawal sowed seeds for inflationary and BoP pressures and growth slowdown, then exacerbated by domestic policy bottlenecks and volatility in international financial markets during mid-2013. Appropriate domestic oil prices and fiscal consolidation will contribute to the recovery of private sector investment. Fiscal consolidation would also facilitate a reduction in inflation, which would moderate gold imports and favorably impact real exchange rate and current account deficit.