Outcome Uncertain


Book Description

This casebook presents both classic and current cases in bioethics, as well as the biomedical and social framework needed to understand the moral and social issues they raise. The text draws its cases from the author's market leading text, INTERVENTION AND REFLECTION, 6th Edition, and provides up-to-date introductions and a strong theoretical foundation for the critical study of bioethics.




Uncertain Outcomes


Book Description




Handbook of the Uncertain Self


Book Description

This Handbook explores the cognitive, motivational, interpersonal, clinical, and applied aspects of personal uncertainty. It showcases both the diversity and the unity that defines contemporary perspectives on uncertainty in self within social and personality psychology. The contributions to the volume are all written by distinguished scholars in personality, social psychology, and clinical psychology united by their common focus on the causes and consequences of self-uncertainty. Chapters explore the similarities and differences between personal uncertainty and other psychological experiences in terms of their nature and relationship with human thought, emotion, motivation, and behavior. Specific challenges posed by personal uncertainty and the coping strategies people develop in their daily life are identified. There is an assessment of the potential negative and positive repercussions of coping with the specific experience of self-uncertainty, including academic, health, and relationship outcomes. Throughout, strategies specifically designed to assist others in confronting the unique challenges posed by self-uncertainty in ways that emphasize healthy psychological functioning and growth are promoted. In addition, the contributions to the Handbook touch on the psychological, social, and cultural context of the new millennium, including concepts such as Friedman’s "flat world," confidence, the absence of doubt in world leaders, the threat of terrorism since 9/11, the arts, doubt and religious belief, and views of doubt as the universal condition of humankind. The Handbook is an invaluable resource for researchers, practitioners, and senior undergraduate and graduate students in social and personality psychology, clinical and counseling psychology, educational psychology, and developmental psychology.




Risk, Decision and Rationality


Book Description

Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty~nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision~making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective.




Uncertain Values


Book Description

How ought you to evaluate your options if you're uncertain about what's fundamentally valuable? A prominent response is Expected Value Maximisation (EVM)—the view that under axiological uncertainty, an option is better than another if and only if it has the greater expected value across axiologies. But the expected value of an option depends on quantitative probability and value facts, and in particular on value comparisons across axiologies. We need to explain what it is for such facts to hold. Also, EVM is by no means self-evident. We need an argument to defend that it’s true. This book introduces an axiomatic approach to answer these worries. It provides an explication of what EVM means by use of representation theorems: intertheoretic comparisons can be understood in terms of facts about which options are better than which, and mutatis mutandis for intratheoretic comparisons and axiological probabilities. And it provides a systematic argument to the effect that EVM is true: the theory can be vindicated through simple axioms. The result is a formally cogent and philosophically compelling extension of standard decision theory, and original take on the problem of axiological or normative uncertainty.




Analyzing Uncertain Timber Investments


Book Description

S2Presented here is a method of analysis that makes use of multiple estimates of project profitability stemming from different assumptions about the true values of uncertain factors like yields and prices. The purpose of the analysis is to screen competing projects to eliminate those that can be proved to be unprofitable, or surely less profitable than some other, regardless of the assumptions made about the values of uncertain factors.S3.




Uncertain Computation-based Decision Theory


Book Description

Uncertain computation is a system of computation and reasoning in which the objects of computation are not values of variables but restrictions on values of variables.This compendium includes uncertain computation examples based on interval arithmetic, probabilistic arithmetic, fuzzy arithmetic, Z-number arithmetic, and arithmetic with geometric primitives.The principal problem with the existing decision theories is that they do not have capabilities to deal with such environment. Up to now, no books where decision theories based on all generalizations level of information are considered. Thus, this self-containing volume intends to overcome this gap between real-world settings' decisions and their formal analysis.




Decision Modeling and Behavior in Complex and Uncertain Environments


Book Description

This text examines new research at the interface of operations research, behavioral and cognitive sciences, and decision analysis. From the cognitive behaviorist who collects empirical evidence as to how people make decisions to the engineer and economist who are the consumers of such understanding, the reader encounters the familiar Traveling Salesman Problem and Prisoner's dilemma, how agricultural decisions are made in Argentina's Pampas region, and some social goals that come into play as an element of rational decision-making. In these 14 self-contained chapters, broad topics covered include the integration of decision analysis and behavioral models, innovations in behavioral models, exploring descriptive behavior models, and experimental studies.




Learning Classifier Systems


Book Description

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Learning Classifier Systems, IWLCS 2003, held in Granada, Spain in September 2003 in conjunction with PPSN VII. The 10 revised full papers presented together with a comprehensive bibliography on learning classifier systems were carefully reviewed and selected during two rounds of refereeing and improvement. All relevant issues in the area are addressed.




Quantifying the Qualitative


Book Description

Quantifying the Qualitative presents a systematic approach to comparative case analysis based on insights from information theory. This new method, which requires minimal quantitative skills, helps students, policymakers, professionals, and scholars learn more from comparative cases. The approach avoids the limitations of traditional statistics in the small-n context and allows analysts to systematically assess and compare the impact of a set of factors on case outcomes with easy-to-use analytics. Rigorous tools reduce bias, improve the knowledge gained from case studies, and provide straightforward metrics for effectively communicating results to a range of readers and leaders.