Book Description

This paper examines the short- and medium-term price and trade outlook for the primary commodities that are of special interest to developing countries. It is the result of an in-depth review of market prospects for primary commodities. It provides an overview of the macro-economic assumptions which were taken as a basis for the forecasts, a summary of the main results of the forecasts and a discussion of some of the key implications of the forecast exercise and policy issues that arise from the analysis. Specifically, Part I - Price and Trade Outlook is addressed covering: commodity markets in 1981-82; the short-term price outlook: 1982-83, the long-term price outlook for non-fuel commodities: 1990-95; qualifications of the long-term outlook for energy prices; and the long-term outlook for non-fuel commodity consumption, trade and developing countries' export revenues. Part II deals with the Implications and Issues and discusses: production growth in food crops - a comparative analysis; investment requirements in the non-fuel mineral industry 1980-95; commodities in world trade global and regional implications of the price and trade volume forecasts; international commodity agreements; agricultural protectionism and import penetration by developing countries.