How Confidence Works


Book Description

'Brilliant ... it will change how you think about confidence.' Johann Hari 'Important for everyone but crucial for women.' Mary Robinson 'Interesting and important.' Steven Pinker __________ Why do boys instinctively bullshit more than girls? How do economic recessions shape a generation's confidence? Can we have too much confidence and, if so, what are the consequences? Imagine we could discover something that could make us richer, healthier, longer-living, smarter, kinder, happier, more motivated and more innovative. Ridiculous, you might say... What is this elixir? Confidence. If you have it, it can empower you to reach heights you never thought possible. But if you don't, it can have a devastating effect on your future. Confidence lies at the core of what makes things happen. Exploring the science and neuroscience behind confidence that has emerged over the last decade, clinical psychologist and neuroscientist Professor Ian Robertson tells us how confidence plays out in our minds, our brains and indeed our bodies. He explains where it comes from and how it spreads - with extraordinary economic and political consequences. And why it's not necessarily something you are born with, but something that can be learned.




Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making


Book Description

This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.




HBR Guide to Making Better Decisions


Book Description

Learn how to make better; faster decisions. You make decisions every day--from prioritizing your to-do list to choosing which long-term innovation projects to pursue. But most decisions don't have a clear-cut answer, and assessing the alternatives and the risks involved can be overwhelming. You need a smarter approach to making the best choice possible. The HBR Guide to Making Better Decisions provides practical tips and advice to help you generate more-creative ideas, evaluate your alternatives fairly, and make the final call with confidence. You'll learn how to: Overcome the cognitive biases that can skew your thinking Look at problems in new ways Manage the trade-offs between options Balance data with your own judgment React appropriately when you've made a bad choice Communicate your decision--and overcome any resistance Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, from a source you trust. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.




Financial Management and Analysis


Book Description

Financial Management and Analysis, Second Edition covers many important financial topics that are neglected elsewhere--from raising funds via securitization to managing a financial institution. This book provides valuable insights into many major aspects of financial management and analysis, and includes expert advice, real-world examples, useful charts and graphs, and incisive end-of-chapter questions that help develop the skill set necessary to deal with the important financial problems encountered in today's business world.




Perfectly Confident


Book Description

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.




Judgment Under Uncertainty


Book Description

Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.







Psychometrics and Psychological Assessment


Book Description

Psychometrics and Psychological Assessment: Principles and Applications reports on contemporary perspectives and models on psychological assessment and their corresponding measures. It highlights topics relevant to clinical and neuropsychological domains, including cognitive abilities, adaptive behavior, temperament, and psychopathology.Moreover, the book examines a series of standard as well as novel methods and instruments, along with their psychometric properties, recent meta-analytic studies, and their cross-cultural applications. - Discusses psychometric issues and empirical studies that speak to same - Explores the family context in relation to children's behavioral outcomes - Features major personality measures as well as their cross cultural variations - Identifies the importance of coping and resilience in assessing personality and psychopathology - Examines precursors of aggression and violence for prediction and prevention




Simple Rules


Book Description

Outlines an approach to high-performance problem solving and decision making that draws on insights from survival guides, pop culture, and other sources.




Evidence-Based Treatment for Children with Autism


Book Description

This manual is a user-friendly, comprehensive description of the Center for Autism and Related Disorders (CARD) model of autism treatment—the latest scientific information on what truly works in treating autism in an integrated, organized, consumable format. The book details effective early behavioral intervention, covering topics such as challenging behavior, visual modification, parental involvement, improving language, cognition, and social skills, and ends with a section that explains how all of the treatments can be put together in real-life service provision organizations. The CARD model is highly comprehensive and provides useful clinical information to form cutting-edge treatment programs. - Describes in detail the world-renowned, state-of-the-art CARD model of treatment for children with autism spectrum disorders - Provides practitioners critical guidance in how to combine the best components into comprehensive treatment programs for individuals with autism that are not only backed by research, but also the most effective, and the least intrusive - Includes practical information, presented in a user-friendly, professionally-oriented format, with tables, figures, and flowcharts to help guide real-life clinical decision making