Patterns, Predictions, and Actions: Foundations of Machine Learning


Book Description

An authoritative, up-to-date graduate textbook on machine learning that highlights its historical context and societal impacts Patterns, Predictions, and Actions introduces graduate students to the essentials of machine learning while offering invaluable perspective on its history and social implications. Beginning with the foundations of decision making, Moritz Hardt and Benjamin Recht explain how representation, optimization, and generalization are the constituents of supervised learning. They go on to provide self-contained discussions of causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning, equipping readers with the concepts and tools they need to assess the consequences that may arise from acting on statistical decisions. Provides a modern introduction to machine learning, showing how data patterns support predictions and consequential actions Pays special attention to societal impacts and fairness in decision making Traces the development of machine learning from its origins to today Features a novel chapter on machine learning benchmarks and datasets Invites readers from all backgrounds, requiring some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra An essential textbook for students and a guide for researchers




Surfing Uncertainty


Book Description

Exciting new theories in neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence are revealing minds like ours as predictive minds, forever trying to guess the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. In this up-to-the-minute treatment, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores new ways of thinking about perception, action, and the embodied mind.




Decoding Strategy


Book Description




Reinforcement Learning, second edition


Book Description

The significantly expanded and updated new edition of a widely used text on reinforcement learning, one of the most active research areas in artificial intelligence. Reinforcement learning, one of the most active research areas in artificial intelligence, is a computational approach to learning whereby an agent tries to maximize the total amount of reward it receives while interacting with a complex, uncertain environment. In Reinforcement Learning, Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto provide a clear and simple account of the field's key ideas and algorithms. This second edition has been significantly expanded and updated, presenting new topics and updating coverage of other topics. Like the first edition, this second edition focuses on core online learning algorithms, with the more mathematical material set off in shaded boxes. Part I covers as much of reinforcement learning as possible without going beyond the tabular case for which exact solutions can be found. Many algorithms presented in this part are new to the second edition, including UCB, Expected Sarsa, and Double Learning. Part II extends these ideas to function approximation, with new sections on such topics as artificial neural networks and the Fourier basis, and offers expanded treatment of off-policy learning and policy-gradient methods. Part III has new chapters on reinforcement learning's relationships to psychology and neuroscience, as well as an updated case-studies chapter including AlphaGo and AlphaGo Zero, Atari game playing, and IBM Watson's wagering strategy. The final chapter discusses the future societal impacts of reinforcement learning.




Machine Learning Design Patterns


Book Description

The design patterns in this book capture best practices and solutions to recurring problems in machine learning. The authors, three Google engineers, catalog proven methods to help data scientists tackle common problems throughout the ML process. These design patterns codify the experience of hundreds of experts into straightforward, approachable advice. In this book, you will find detailed explanations of 30 patterns for data and problem representation, operationalization, repeatability, reproducibility, flexibility, explainability, and fairness. Each pattern includes a description of the problem, a variety of potential solutions, and recommendations for choosing the best technique for your situation. You'll learn how to: Identify and mitigate common challenges when training, evaluating, and deploying ML models Represent data for different ML model types, including embeddings, feature crosses, and more Choose the right model type for specific problems Build a robust training loop that uses checkpoints, distribution strategy, and hyperparameter tuning Deploy scalable ML systems that you can retrain and update to reflect new data Interpret model predictions for stakeholders and ensure models are treating users fairly




Deep Reinforcement Learning in Action


Book Description

Summary Humans learn best from feedback—we are encouraged to take actions that lead to positive results while deterred by decisions with negative consequences. This reinforcement process can be applied to computer programs allowing them to solve more complex problems that classical programming cannot. Deep Reinforcement Learning in Action teaches you the fundamental concepts and terminology of deep reinforcement learning, along with the practical skills and techniques you’ll need to implement it into your own projects. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the technology Deep reinforcement learning AI systems rapidly adapt to new environments, a vast improvement over standard neural networks. A DRL agent learns like people do, taking in raw data such as sensor input and refining its responses and predictions through trial and error. About the book Deep Reinforcement Learning in Action teaches you how to program AI agents that adapt and improve based on direct feedback from their environment. In this example-rich tutorial, you’ll master foundational and advanced DRL techniques by taking on interesting challenges like navigating a maze and playing video games. Along the way, you’ll work with core algorithms, including deep Q-networks and policy gradients, along with industry-standard tools like PyTorch and OpenAI Gym. What's inside Building and training DRL networks The most popular DRL algorithms for learning and problem solving Evolutionary algorithms for curiosity and multi-agent learning All examples available as Jupyter Notebooks About the reader For readers with intermediate skills in Python and deep learning. About the author Alexander Zai is a machine learning engineer at Amazon AI. Brandon Brown is a machine learning and data analysis blogger. Table of Contents PART 1 - FOUNDATIONS 1. What is reinforcement learning? 2. Modeling reinforcement learning problems: Markov decision processes 3. Predicting the best states and actions: Deep Q-networks 4. Learning to pick the best policy: Policy gradient methods 5. Tackling more complex problems with actor-critic methods PART 2 - ABOVE AND BEYOND 6. Alternative optimization methods: Evolutionary algorithms 7. Distributional DQN: Getting the full story 8.Curiosity-driven exploration 9. Multi-agent reinforcement learning 10. Interpretable reinforcement learning: Attention and relational models 11. In conclusion: A review and roadmap




Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading


Book Description

Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.




Model-Based Machine Learning


Book Description

Today, machine learning is being applied to a growing variety of problems in a bewildering variety of domains. A fundamental challenge when using machine learning is connecting the abstract mathematics of a machine learning technique to a concrete, real world problem. This book tackles this challenge through model-based machine learning which focuses on understanding the assumptions encoded in a machine learning system and their corresponding impact on the behaviour of the system. The key ideas of model-based machine learning are introduced through a series of case studies involving real-world applications. Case studies play a central role because it is only in the context of applications that it makes sense to discuss modelling assumptions. Each chapter introduces one case study and works through step-by-step to solve it using a model-based approach. The aim is not just to explain machine learning methods, but also showcase how to create, debug, and evolve them to solve a problem. Features: Explores the assumptions being made by machine learning systems and the effect these assumptions have when the system is applied to concrete problems. Explains machine learning concepts as they arise in real-world case studies. Shows how to diagnose, understand and address problems with machine learning systems. Full source code available, allowing models and results to be reproduced and explored. Includes optional deep-dive sections with more mathematical details on inference algorithms for the interested reader.




Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning


Book Description

This is the first textbook on pattern recognition to present the Bayesian viewpoint. The book presents approximate inference algorithms that permit fast approximate answers in situations where exact answers are not feasible. It uses graphical models to describe probability distributions when no other books apply graphical models to machine learning. No previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning concepts is assumed. Familiarity with multivariate calculus and basic linear algebra is required, and some experience in the use of probabilities would be helpful though not essential as the book includes a self-contained introduction to basic probability theory.




Predictocracy


Book Description

Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.