Inflation Expectations


Book Description

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.




Perceptions of Inflation and the Formation of Price Expectations


Book Description

This study analyzes data from survey questions which obtain both (1) inflationary expectations in continuous numerical terms for the coming 12 months from a survey sample and (2) the subjects' perceptions of what inflation had been over the previous 12 months, again in continuous numerical terms. The data used here are for the period 1974 -77 when inflation reached unusually high levels due to energy shocks after two decades of relatively modest price change. This provides a unique opportunity to examine subjects in a period when they were adjusting to a dramatically changed price environment. The findings show a systematic basis towards over-estimation, or exaggeration, in perceived inflation rates which increases as actual inflation rates accelerate. As estimated from these data, perceptions of inflation are found to approach their most accurate level when actual inflation is at its lowest level, which was 4.2% in that period. Even in this case, the exaggeration factor was 2.16. Perceived rates of inflation for specific expenditure categories were also studied for a subsample and again showed substantial over-estimation, but with the same rank ordering as actual rates of inflation for the categories. Finally, we use the data on perceived as well as expected rates of inflation from the same sample to fit both the adaptive and the extrapolative models of price expectations. The adaptive expectations model is also fitted with the actual rather than perceived rate of inflation utilizing a panel component of our initial survey sample. The use of perceived rates is found to be superior in fitting this model. Socioeconomic variables are also examined, and mostly notably, women are found to have significantly greater over-perceptions of inflation than men.




Inflation Perception and the Formation of Inflation Expectations


Book Description

In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and November 2022. It is designed to detect thematic trends, thereby providing new insights into the dynamics of inflation perception over time. Methodically, the IPI makes use of RollingLDA, a dynamic topic modeling approach refining the rather static original LDA to allow for changes in the model's structure over time. We then use time series for the overall inflation perception indicator as well as for specific topics to analyze time-varying correlations with time series for inflation expectations of firms and households. Our results reveal that the link between reporting about inflation and changes in inflation expectations is time-dependent. During periods of intensive newspaper coverage of inflation developments, a correlation with inflation expectations emerges that does not exist at other times. Such correlations are evident after the introduction of the euro, during the financial crisis and during the recent energy price shock.







Nexus Between Inflation, Inflation Perceptions and Expectations


Book Description

We uncover a nexus between actual inflation, inflation perceptions and expectations in Korea through analyzing micro as well as aggregate data from the Consumer Survey. We document two novel findings. First, households' subjective perceptions of inflation exert more impact on expectation formation than actual inflation. Second, inflation perceptions are broadly in line with the trajectory of the inflation trend. This is attributable to the fact that changes in actual inflation have been generated mainly by the consumption items whose price changes are perceived more sensitively as those items are frequently bought or have a larger share in household expenditures. Conducting a crosscountry comparison, we find that information rigidity in expectation formation process and the nexus between perceptions and expectations of inflation prove to be stronger in Korea. Additionally, we reconfirm the existing finding that the scope of information utilized for forming inflation expectations is fairly circumscribed.




Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence


Book Description

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.




Consumer Expectations


Book Description

Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.




What Drives Inflation Perceptions?


Book Description

Recoge: 1. Introduction. - 2. Measured price developments at the euro cash changeover and perceived inflation. - 3.A review of the literature. - 4. Empirical analysis of inflation perceptions. -5. Conclusion.