Persistence and Volatility in Short-Term Interest Rates


Book Description

It is important for monetary policy makers to know how closely money market rates follow the policy rates they set. This paper looks at the volatility and persistence of divergences between short-term market interest rates away from policy rates. This may also offer insights into the effectiveness of various approaches that central banks employ to smooth interest rate volatility, such as requiring minimum reserves. Using data for Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, we find that in all three countries there are significant temporary divergences, although the average divergence is close to zero.




What Moves Interest Rates? Ex-Ante Determinants of Interest Rate Volatility


Book Description

For short, long, and medium term interest rates, we explore the extent to which future interest rate volatility is predictable based on: 1) recent past volatility, 2) knowledge of when the FOMC will meet, when Treasury auctions will take place, and when important macroeconomic statistics will be released, 3) knowledge of day-of-the-week patterns, and 4) interest rate levels. We find that three of these information sets are consistently important and that conditional volatility varies considerably over time. While macroeconomic announcements, Treasury auctions, and monetary policy actions all impact interest rates, macroeconomic announcements are most important. Announcement patterns are largely responsible for day-of-the-week effects but not for the observed GARCH effects. The impact of monetary policy actions is quite different before and after February 1994 when the FOMC began releasing statements at the end of its meetings. Both volatility persistence and asymmetry are quite different for long and short rates.




Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes


Book Description

A new kind of mixture autoregressive model with GARCH errors is introduced and applied to the U.S. short-term interest rate. According to the diagnostic tests developed in the article and further informal checks, the model is capable of capturing both of the typical characteristics of the short-term interest rate: volatility persistence and the dependence of volatility on the level of the interest rate. The model also allows for regime switches whose presence has been a third central result emerging from the recent empirical literature on the U.S. short-term interest rate. Realizations generated from the estimated model seem stable and their properties resemble those of the observed series closely. The drift and diffusion functions implied by the new model are in accordance with the results in much of the literature on continuous-time diffusion models for the short-term interest rate, and the term structure implications agree with historically observed patterns.







The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area


Book Description

Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.




Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through


Book Description

This paper investigates empirically the pass-through of money market interest rates to retail banking interest rates in Chile, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and five European countries. Overall, Chile's pass-through does not appear atypical. Based on a standard error-correction model, we find that, as in most countries considered, Chile's measured pass-through is incomplete. But Chile's pass-through is also faster than in many other countries considered and is comparable to that in the United States. While we find no significant evidence of asymmetry in Chile's pass-through across states of the interest rate or monetary policy cycle, we do find some evidence of parameter instability, around the time of the Asian and Russian crises. However, we do not find evidence that the switch to a more flexible exchange rate regime in 1999 and the "nominalization" of Chile's interest rate targets in 2001 have affected significantly the pass-through process.




Dollar and Yen


Book Description

Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. From the mid-1950s to the early 1990s, Japan grew faster than any other major industrial economy, displacing the United States in dominance of worldwide manufacturing markets. In the 1970s and 1980s, many books appeared linking the apparent decline of the United States in the world economy to unfair Japanese practices that closed the Japanese market to a wide range of foreign goods. Dollar and Yen analyzes the friction between the United States and Japan from the viewpoint of exchange rate economics. The authors argue against the prevailing view that the trade imbalance should be corrected by dollar depreciation, saying that adjustment through the exchange rate is both ineffective and costly. Stepping outside the traditional dichotomy between international trade and international finance, they link the yen's tremendous appreciation from 1971 to mid-1995 to mercantile pressure from the United States arising from trade tensions between the two countries. Although sometimes resisted by the Bank of Japan, this yen appreciation nevertheless forced unwanted deflation on the Japanese economy after 1985--resulting in two major recessions (endaka fukyos). The authors argue for relaxing commercial tensions between the two countries, and for limiting future economic downturns, by combining a commercial compact for mutual trade liberalization with a monetary accord for stabilizing the yen-dollar exchange rate.




Stochastic Volatility


Book Description

Stochastic volatility is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with time-varying volatility in financial markets. This work brings together some of the main papers that have influenced this field, andshows that the development of this subject has been highly multidisciplinary.




International Finance and Financial Services


Book Description

International finance is the branch of economics that studies the dynamics of exchange rates, foreign investment, and how these affect international trade. Financial services is a term used to refer to the services provided by the finance industry. Financial services is also the term used to describe organisations that deal with the management of money and includes merchant banks, credit card companies, consumer finance companies, government sponsored enterprises, and stock brokerages. Financial services is the largest industry (or industry category) in the world, in terms of earnings. This book presents important analyses in these interaction fields.