Author : Hamed Ghoddusi
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 34,26 MB
Release : 2015
Category :
ISBN :
This paper tests the integration property of US natural gas consumption at the sector level and finds a heterogenous behavior. Residential, commercial, and power consumption are stationary. However, even after allowing for endogenous structural breaks, tests fail to reject unit-root in the industrial consumption of natural gas. The results highlight the value of conducting sector-level analysis of unit-root behavior in energy consumption.
Author : Chenghan Hou
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 45,63 MB
Release : 2018
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 16,34 MB
Release : 1999-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 145185028X
This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings for national and international schemes to stabilize earnings from commodity exports and finds that if price shocks are long–lived, then the cost of stabilization schemes will likely exceed any associated smoothing benefits.
Author : Ali Jadidzadeh
Publisher :
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 48,98 MB
Release : 2017
Category :
ISBN :
In this paper we use monthly data (over the period from January 1976 to December 2012) and a structural VAR model to disentangle demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market and investigate their effects on the real price of natural gas in the United States. We identify the model by assuming that innovations to the real price of crude oil are predetermined with respect to the natural gas market and show that close to 45% of the variation in the real price of natural gas can be attributed to structural supply and demand shocks in the global crude oil market.
Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 27,23 MB
Release : 2021-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1616356154
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author : David A Anderson
Publisher : Mdpi AG
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 47,67 MB
Release : 2020-10-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783039431366
Recent developments in the natural gas industry warrant new analysis of related issues. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments have accelerated the shift away from coal as the dominant source of electricity. Its low environmental impact, reduced volume, and broad availability make liquefied natural gas (LNG) a popular alternative, during this time of transition between traditional fuels and newer options. In the United States, the shale gas revolution has made natural gas a game changer. In this book, we focus on empirical analyses of the natural gas market and its growing relevance worldwide.
Author : Markos Farag
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 18,41 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN :
This paper analyzes the integration of the American, European, and Asian natural gas markets over the period 2016-2022, with a focus on how the demand shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply shock caused by geopolitical tensions in the European market affected this integration. We also examine which regional market is leading in reflecting new information and shocks into the market price. Our analysis indicates that the market integration process has been impacted by external shocks, leading to a decrease in the degree of integration between the European and Asian markets. Additionally, we find that the American market is no longer integrated with the other two markets after the supply shock, potentially due to the US's congested and fully utilized LNG infrastructure. Our analysis also shows that the gas price differentials adjust asymmetrically in response to disturbances, suggesting that markets respond differently to positive and negative shocks. Moreover, we show that the lead/lag relationship changes over time and exhibits a dynamic behavior. Finally, we discuss the fundamental changes in the global gas market that align with our empirical results.
Author : Seth Wiggins
Publisher :
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 40,72 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :
In this paper, we investigate supply and demand shocks in the US natural gas market, focusing on how the effects of these shocks have changed over time. Using a sign-identified structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model that allows for both time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, we decompose the real price of natural gas into supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks driven by changes in the US economic activity, precautionary inventory demand in anticipation of changes in future demand-and-supply conditions, and residual demand shocks not otherwise accounted for by the previous three shocks. Using quarterly data from 1976 to 2015, we find that an unanticipated supply disruption raises natural gas prices, reduces the aggregate economic demand, and lowers the precautionary inventory demand, while negative aggregate demand shocks, on the other hand, depress natural gas prices, reduce natural gas production, and increase precautionary inventory demand. We also find that following a negative precautionary inventory demand shock, aggregate demand driven by real economic activity declines marginally, and the marketed natural gas production and real prices decrease as well. Our results further suggest that such impact responses have evolved considerably over time with changing market conditions.
Author : Valentin Winkler
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 30,20 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN :
This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine the relationships between the intensity of drilling (i.e. investment) for natural gas production, natural gas withdrawals, economic activity and natural gas prices in the United States. The results show that the reaction of drilling to an unexpected change in natural gas prices depends on the source of the price change. Specifically, I find that the reaction of drilling is significantly stronger after an economic activity shock than after a gas demand shock (e.g. due to oil price fluctuations). In addition, it is shown that demand-side factors were more important than supply-side factors in explaining the 85% drop in natural gas prices from June 2008 to April 2012. This contradicts prevailing explanations focused on shale gas development and should dampen the expectations of policy makers seeking to rapidly expand shale gas production in order to obtain similar cheap energy as the U.S. after 2008.
Author : Ana Maria Herrera
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 37,27 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN :
We study the effect of oil news shocks on U.S. aggregate and industry-level stock returns. Using a Proxy-VAR and a sample from January 1973 to December 2019, we find no significant effect on aggregate stock price index on impact, but a persistent and significant drop at longer horizons. An important degree of heterogeneity is found in the industry-level responses: stock returns for precious metals, coal, petroleum and natural gas, and utilities increase significantly and persistently after the shock, whereas consumer goods, rubber and plastic, automobiles, and trucks fall shortly. Moreover, our estimates indicate that oil news shocks pose a risk for IT sectors whose returns exhibit losses. When we extend the sample to December 2022, we uncover a crucial change in the dynamics of the oil surprise measure: it is contaminated by lags of the oil price. We illustrate how using the oil surprise as an instrumental variable in the extended sample produces puzzling responses of industry-level stock returns, whereas a purged measure of the oil surprise leads to more stable estimates.
