Book Description

Under what conditions do states coercively alter their demography by expelling minorities and settling peripheral lands? To answer this question, I compiled geolocated data on the incidence of ethnic cleansing and settler colonialism from around the world in the late 20th century. I also collected sub-national data tracking the incidence of demographic engineering in 20th century China, the former USSR, Australia and Rwanda. Rather than be explained by domestic politics, international norms, land availability, or ethno-racial ideologies, I find that patterns of demographic engineering are shaped by the value of frontier territory and the military concerns of states. States disproportionately cleanse and settle strategically important areas: non-natural frontiers and areas populated by rebellious and fifth column minorities. Crucially, however, industrialization lowers the value of land to potential settlers and so reduces the capacity of states to settle contested areas. As such, as states industrialize, I find that they are no longer able to alter the distribution of ethnic groups through migration. Rather, all states go through what I call a colonial transition with industrialization — industrialized states are are both less likely to try to resettle populations and less likely to have success when doing so. Settler colonialism and ethnic cleansing are thus best understood as the outcome of an equilibrium that characterizes state building in less industrialized states. Methodologically, this dissertation is the first to use sub-national panels to test the conditions under which states alter the distribution of ethnic groups, and in doing so, prompts a reconsideration of findings that have treated the distribution of ethnic groups as exogenous. More generally, by bringing the state back into the study of migration, I open up new directions for study in the nascent subfield of political demography.