Portuguese Economic Development and External Funding in the Modern Era


Book Description

After World War II, with the triumph of multilateralism, several international organizations were created, including two which would be of special importance for the external funding of the Portuguese economy in the second half of the twentieth century and in the early twenty-first. The European Union and the International Monetary Fund have been responsible for providing large amounts of funding, both in periods of economic development and during times of financial crisis. This contributory volume provides a thorough analysis on specific case studies: the Marshall Plan (1949-1952); the three IMF interventions (in the seventies, eighties and the 2011 bailout); the implementation of the first EU funds Portugal received prior to accession; and the debate on the new framework for European funds for the period 2021-2027. These case study analyses provide an overview of the legal, economic and financial implications that such external funding has on the country at different times and in different economic contexts. Of particular import at all times is the public finance legal framework, and this is especially the case for the new European funding structures, which has attracted some criticism. And for any future IMF financial assistance and its political implementation implications. Portuguese Economic Development and External Funding in the Modern Era provides important insights into economic development, crisis management, financial assistance and European investment funds. While the work is Portuguese-centred, the topics investigated and the means of analysis adopted are applicable to other countries. This is the first book to address economic development and external funding, and it will inevitably be used as a template for future research.




Economic Stabilization and Growth in Portugal


Book Description

This paper reviews economic stabilization and growth in Portugal during the 1970s. Following a decade of rapid growth with external equilibrium, the Portuguese economy in the early 1970s suffered a series of major shocks. The paper highlights that the problem of managing economic growth with a balance-of-payments constraint was new to Portugal. The paper reviews the issues that had to be resolved to develop an effective program. The economic outturn is also critically examined in this paper.




The Modern Portuguese Economy in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries


Book Description

This book offers insights into the behaviour of the Portuguese economy in relation to economic growth from the twentieth century to the present. How did the 1891-92 crisis and World Wars impact Portugal economically? How did the Portuguese economy behave during the 'Golden Age' of economic growth in postwar Europe? What have the effects of the European Monetary Union been? Amaral examines long-running trends in the development of the modern Portuguese economy in order to help us understand various growth phases of the modern period. This title is important reading for economic historians and economists researching economic growth, crises, stablisation and monetary unions.




Portugal


Book Description

This Selected Issues paper describes financial conditions and growth at risk in Portugal. The macro-finance literature and recent experience provide compelling evidence that financial imbalances grow in good times, creating downside risks to economic growth. The analysis highlights the importance of the price of risk, leverage and credit growth as leading indicators of risks to gross domestic product growth. The price of risk appears to provide the most powerful signal in the short term, while credit aggregates are the most significant predictor in the medium term. This finding is consistent with the volatility paradox and is line with other empirical studies. The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) model suggests contained downside risks to Portugal’s growth projections at the current juncture based on financial conditions data, but credit growth should continue to be monitored given still high leverage. The moderate risk to growth identified by the GaR model reflects the impact of low credit spreads and volatility in the financial markets, in their turn reflecting the prevailing policy mix. Still, a repricing of risks and other shocks could be magnified by the still-high leverage, and lead to less favorable growth outcomes.




Portugal


Book Description

The three year Fund-supported program that expired at end-June 2014 succeeded in stabilizing Portugal’s economy and restoring access to sovereign debt markets. Following the deep downturn of 2011–12, the economy has expanded in six of the last seven quarters, albeit at a moderate pace. The cumulative fiscal consolidation over the past three years has been substantial, and the current account is now in surplus. Regained policy credibility and benign market conditions have facilitated the resumption of market access at declining yields. But private consumption is driving the recovery, while the necessary rebalancing of the economy remains elusive. With post-crisis labor slack still extensive, attaining higher growth through private investment and export-led growth continues to be constrained by high corporate debt and weak external competitiveness. Moreover, the momentum for reforms and fiscal adjustment appears to have flagged over the past six months. Notwithstanding past structural reform efforts aimed at improving competitiveness, the slow expansion despite the high labor slack suggests that the unfinished agenda is substantial. Corporate debt is also excessively high, acting as a brake on investment and job creation. While the fiscal targets for 2014 seem well within reach, significantly more ambitious expenditure reforms will be needed to comply with the government’s own medium-term budget framework. Recently regained policy credibility and benign market conditions provide a welcome but only limited window of opportunity to press ahead with necessary reforms. With elections due by October 2015, building consensus around these reforms will prove difficult in the short term. In this context, discussions focused on three key areas necessary to maintaining economic and financial stability and improving medium- term growth prospects: (i) enhancing competitiveness through further reforms to improve the functioning of labor and product markets, and making progress on corporate deleveraging; (ii) safeguarding financial sector stability in a low profitability and low growth environment; and (iii) ensuring fiscal stability in a low profitability and low growth environment; and (iii) ensuring fiscal sustainability against the backdrop of vulnerable debt dynamics and large financing needs.




An Economic History of Portugal, 1143–2010


Book Description

A fascinating exploration of the evolution of the Portuguese economy over the course of eight centuries, from 1143 to 2010.




Small States and Big Powers


Book Description

Foreign policy is one of the most complex policies of every state, and Portugal and Iceland are no exception. The “Small States and Big Powers: Portugal and Iceland’s Foreign Relations” book analyses the importance of relations with big powers or regional and international organisations from a shelter theory perspective, detailing the degree of political, economic and societal shelter that they have provided to Portugal and to Iceland over time. Despite having followed distinct paths, Portugal and Iceland have some important similarities in their foreign policy, namely in relation to the European and the Atlantic dimensions and their participation in regional organisations. The book examines their decisions to join or not to join regional organisations, and both countries’ bilateral relations with other important parts of the world, namely Africa, the Nordic states and China. This book compares the foreign policies of Portugal and Iceland considering their commonly identified status as small states and place them within the shelter theory framework, and its findings indicate that both countries need to balance their international relations with shelter provided by different actors. Their size and political and economic capabilities matter in their bilateral and multilateral relations. It is therefore in both countries’ interest to maintain strong cooperation not only with big powers, but also regional and international organisations, depending on their field of action, in order to flourish politically, economically and socially.




This Time Is Different


Book Description

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.




A History of the Global Economy


Book Description

"In co-operation with the International Economic History Association."




World Development Report 1978


Book Description

This first report deals with some of the major development issues confronting the developing countries and explores the relationship of the major trends in the international economy to them. It is designed to help clarify some of the linkages between the international economy and domestic strategies in the developing countries against the background of growing interdependence and increasing complexity in the world economy. It assesses the prospects for progress in accelerating growth and alleviating poverty, and identifies some of the major policy issues which will affect these prospects.