Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

The arrival of public information in the U.S. Treasury market sets off a two-stage adjustment process for prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. In a brief first stage, the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume, demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading. The bid-ask spread widens dramatically at announcement, evidently driven by inventory control concerns. In a prolonged second stage, trading volume surges, price volatility persists, and bid-ask spreads remain moderately wide as investors trade to reconcile residual differences in their private views.




Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

"We identify striking adjustment patterns for price volatility, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads in the U.S. Treasury market when public information arrives. Using newly available high-frequency data, we find a notable lack of trading volume upon a major announcement when prices are most volatile. The bid-ask spread widens dramatically with price volatility and narrows just as dramatically with trading volume. Trading volume surges only after an appreciable lag following the announcement. High levels of price volatility and trading volume then persist, with volume persisting somewhat longer"--Abstract.




Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

We identify striking adjustment patterns for price volatility, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads in the U.S. Treasury market when public information arrives. Using newly available high-frequency data, we find a notable lack of trading volume upon a major announcement when prices are most volatile. The bid-ask spread widens dramatically with price volatility and narrows just as dramatically with trading volume. Trading volume surges only after an appreciable lag following the announcement. High levels of price volatility and trading volume then persist, with volume persisting somewhat longer.







Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market


Book Description

Changes in the structure of the U.S. Treasury market over recent years may have increased risks to financial stability. Traditional market makers have changed their liquidity provision by increasingly switching from risk warehousing to risk distribution, and a new breed of market maker has emerged with the rise of electronic trading. The “flash rally” of October 15, 2014 provides a clear example of how those risks can materialize. Based on an in-depth analysis of the event—complementing the authorities’ work—we suggest i) providing incentives for liquidity provision, ii) improving market safeguards, and iii) enhancing the regulation of the Treasury market.




Market Liquidity


Book Description

"The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the market, and that participants have quite diverse information about the security's fundamentals. As a result, the order flow is a complex mix of information and noise, and a consensus price only emerges gradually over time as the trading process evolves and the participants interpret the actions of other traders. Thus, a security's actual transaction price may deviate from its fundamental value, as it would be assessed by a fully informed set of investors. The book takes these deviations seriously, and explains why and how they emerge in the trading process and are eventually eliminated. The authors draw on a vast body of theoretical insights and empirical findings on security price formation that have come to form a well-defined field within financial economics known as "market microstructure." Focusing on liquidity and price discovery, the book analyzes the tension between the two, pointing out that when price-relevant information reaches the market through trading pressure rather than through a public announcement, liquidity may suffer. It also confronts many striking phenomena in securities markets and uses the analytical tools and empirical methods of market microstructure to understand them. These include issues such as why liquidity changes over time and differs across securities, why large trades move prices up or down, and why these price changes are subsequently reversed, and why we observe temporary deviations from asset fair values"--










Information Shocks, Liquidity Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery


Book Description

In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, announcement surprises have limited power in explaining bond price jumps. Our analysis further shows that preannouncement liquidity shocks, such as changes in the bid-ask spread and market depth, have significant predictive power for jumps. The predictive power is significant even after controlling for information shocks. Finally, we present evidence that post-jump order flow is less informative relative to the case where there is no jump at announcement.




The Microstructure of Financial Markets


Book Description

The analysis of the microstructure of financial markets has been one of the most important areas of research in finance and has allowed scholars and practitioners alike to have a much more sophisticated understanding of the dynamics of price formation in financial markets. Frank de Jong and Barbara Rindi provide an integrated graduate level textbook treatment of the theory and empirics of the subject, starting with a detailed description of the trading systems on stock exchanges and other markets and then turning to economic theory and asset pricing models. Special attention is paid to models explaining transaction costs, with a treatment of the measurement of these costs and the implications for the return on investment. The final chapters review recent developments in the academic literature. End-of-chapter exercises and downloadable data from the book's companion website provide opportunities to revise and apply models developed in the text.