Pricing, Demand Analysis and Simulation


Book Description

Recent changes in the New South Wales water utilities show a trend towards usage-related pricing, with the aim of providing efficient signals for consumption. This thesis evaluates alternative pricing strategies for water against the criteria of efficiency and equity while maintaining the financial viability of the public utility. First, the water utility cost structure is examined by developing cost functions to estimate short and long-run marginal costs, using a quarterly time-series data from 1970/71 to 1995/96. Second, a residential water demand model is developed using a panel data set (constructed for the analysis), comprising 822 cross-sectional units and 23 quarterly time periods from 1990/91 to 1995/96. The purposes of developing the demand model are to test the sensitivity of water demand to changes in the tariff structure and to use it to simulate the impact of alternative pricing strategies. Third, the simulation model is developed to analyse various pricing reforms using both the cost and demand model results, where the individual welfare and aggregate efficiency gains are determined under each pricing policy. In addition to this, the distributional effects of various tariff structures are examined. The empirical results of the cost structure estimates are comparable with previous studies. The demand estimation indicates that consumers respond to price, therefore price can be considered as a tool in the implementation of demand management strategies. However, the magnitude of the price elasticity suggests that substantial increases in price would be required to influence demand. Finally, the simulation results show that in the case of movement from the actual tariff structure to a two-part tariff policy (where the usage charge is equal to the short-run marginal cost), leads to highest efficiency gains.




Commodity Modeling and Pricing


Book Description

Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions and applications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resource commodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of Professor Walter Labys on the development of econometric methods for forecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays features expert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry, public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars in higher education–all of whom were Labys's former students or collaborators. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.




Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Smart Energy Systems


Book Description

The increasing demand for cleaner and more intelligent energy solutions poses a challenge that resonates across academic, engineering, and policymaking spheres. The complexity of integrating renewable energy sources, energy storage solutions, and advanced communication technologies demands a comprehensive understanding, rigorous analysis, and innovative control strategies. The academic community, in particular, seeks a guiding light through this intricate maze of evolving energy dynamics. Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Smart Energy Systems is a groundbreaking publication that offers more than theoretical exploration; it is a roadmap equipped with the knowledge and tools required to shape the future of energy systems. From laying conceptual foundations to unraveling real-world case studies, the book seamlessly bridges the gap between theory and application. Its comprehensive coverage of mathematical modeling, dynamic system analysis, intelligent control strategies, and the integration of renewable energy sources positions it as an authoritative reference for researchers, engineers, and policymakers alike.




Monte Carlo Simulation for the Pharmaceutical Industry


Book Description

Helping you become a creative, logical thinker and skillful "simulator," Monte Carlo Simulation for the Pharmaceutical Industry: Concepts, Algorithms, and Case Studies provides broad coverage of the entire drug development process, from drug discovery to preclinical and clinical trial aspects to commercialization. It presents the theories and metho




Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices


Book Description

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.







Marketing Research and Modeling: Progress and Prospects


Book Description

Marketing Research and Modeling addresses state of the art developments including new techniques and methodologies by leading experts in marketing and marketing research. This work emphasizes new developments in Bayesian Decision Analysis, Multivariate Analysis, Multidimensional Scaling, Conjoint Analysis, Applications of Conjoint and MDS technique, Data Mining, Cluster Analysis, and Neural Networks.




Systems Modeling and Simulation


Book Description

The Asia Simulation Conference 2006 (JSST 2006) was aimed at exploring challenges in methodologies for modeling, control and computation in simu lation, and their applications in social, economic, and financial fields as well as established scientific and engineering solutions. The conference was held in Tokyo from October 30 to November 1, 2006, and included keynote speeches presented by technology and industry leaders, technical sessions, organized sessions, poster sessions, and vendor exhibits. It was the seventh annual inter national conference on system simulation and scientific computing, which is organized by the Japan Society for Simulation Technology (JSST), the Chi nese Association for System Simulation (CASS), and the Korea Society for Simulation (KSS). For the conference, all submitted papers were refereed by the international technical program committee, each paper receiving at least two independent reviews. After careful reviews by the committee, 65 papers from 143 submis sions were selected for oral presentation. This volume includes the keynote speakers' papers along with the papers presented at the oral sessions and the organized sessions. As a result, we are publishing 87 papers for the conference in this volume. In addition to the scientific tracts presented, the conference featured keynote presentations by five invited speakers. We are grateful to them for accepting our invitation and for their presentations. We also would like to express our gratitude to all contributors, reviewers, technical program conmiittee members, and organizing committee members who made the conference very successful.




Handbook Of Energy Finance: Theories, Practices And Simulations


Book Description

Modeling the dynamics of energy markets has become a challenging task. The intensification of their financialization since 2004 had made them more complex but also more integrated with other tradable asset classes. More importantly, their large and frequent fluctuations in terms of both prices and volatility, particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis 2008-2009, posit difficulties for modeling and forecasting energy price behavior and are primary sources of concerns for macroeconomic stability and general economic performance.This handbook aims to advance the debate on the theories and practices of quantitative energy finance while shedding light on innovative results and technical methods applied to energy markets. Its primary focus is on the recent development and applications of mathematical and quantitative approaches for a better understanding of the stochastic processes that drive energy market movements. The handbook is designed for not only graduate students and researchers but also practitioners and policymakers.




Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis


Book Description

These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.