Primary Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables
Author : Theodosios B. Palaskas
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 18,98 MB
Release : 1989
Category : Macroeconomia
ISBN :
Author : Theodosios B. Palaskas
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 18,98 MB
Release : 1989
Category : Macroeconomia
ISBN :
Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 47,3 MB
Release : 2011-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226386899
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Author : Lukas Boer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 29,15 MB
Release : 2021-10-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513599372
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Author : Bertrand Gruss
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 14,72 MB
Release : 2019-01-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484393856
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 30,67 MB
Release : 2011-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1139501976
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 299 pages
File Size : 16,20 MB
Release : 2012-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475507038
The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Author : Mr. Christian Bogmans
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 18,78 MB
Release : 2021-09-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 155775246X
We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 40,38 MB
Release : 2009-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451873522
We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.
Author : L. Alan Winters
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 334 pages
File Size : 49,6 MB
Release : 1990-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521385503
Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 15,68 MB
Release : 1988-10-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451953089
Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.