Projecting Potential Output


Book Description

In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.




Projecting Potential Output


Book Description

In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.




Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007


Book Description

As part of its economic and budgetary projections, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates past and future potential output -- also called potential gross domestic product (GDP), and defined as the maximum sustainable amount of real (inflation-adjusted) output that the economy can produce. For various reasons, CBO's projections for potential gross domestic product (GDP) in a specific year can change over time. This report examines a change in CBO's projections of potential output for the year 2017, comparing the projection it published in January 2001 with the one it released in February 2014. From the earlier projection to the more recent one, CBO's projection for potential output in 2017 declined by 7.3 percent. Table and figures. This is a print on demand report.




OECD Economic Outlook


Book Description







Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology


Book Description

In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and that the international price of oil is exogenous to the Mexican economy in the long term. They then calculate potential output by adding the world oil and supply components to the drift in output. They find that world oil shocks have been an important source of both actual and potential output fluctuations over a sample period extending from 1965 to 1994. However, they also find occurrences of important gaps between actual and potential output.




An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017 To 2027


Book Description

Learn About America's Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, and Economic projections! CBO's economic forecast--which underlies its budget projections--indicates that, under current law, the economy will expand through 2018 at a pace that leads to further tightening of the labor market. Greater demand for workers will put downward pressure on the unemployment rate and upward pressure on the rate of labor force participation. As the amount of unused productive resources in the economy shrinks, inflation and interest rates are projected to rise. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, annual output growth is projected to average 1.9 percent, constrained by a relatively slow increase in the size of the nation's labor force. High school students and above may find this report beneficial for U.S. economy, economic conditions, and America's debt research papers. American citizens, small business, corporations, lobbyists, fiscal managers, economists, and media news outlets may find this information invaluable for understanding America's future growth and management of debt. Members of Congress, government agency personnel at Federal and State level, plus investors may be interested in this updated edition. Related products: Congressional Budget Reports & Economic Analyses resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/congressional-budget-reports-economic-analyses Budget of the U.S. Government, A New Foundation for American Greatness, Fiscal Year 2018 is available here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/budget-united-states-government-fy-2018-paperback-book Major Savings and Reforms: Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2018 can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/major-savings-and-reforms-budget-us-government-fiscal-year-2018 Sign up today for an annual print subscription to Economic Indicators that provide economic information on gross domestic product, income, employment, prices, wages, production, business activity, security markets, Federal Finance, and more at this link: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/752-004-00000-5?ctid=